Vuelta a España - Stage 11 Vilanova i la Geltrú - Andorra 208.4km

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Bruseghin is a real diesel indeed, good point by Ryo.
A multiple climb stage should actually suit him better than this. Still I think it will be hard for him to limit the damage enough to Anton and Mosquera

 

[icefire]

Yeah and Pantani got the strength from somewhere to do that great final TT in 98 right

From the same place than the runner-up that year AFAIK, but that wasn't my point. If he's the best in the mountains he just needs to neutralise his disadvantage in the ITT wrt his rivals somehow. Whether this is because of a flue, a stomach upset or an excess of apple pie or nightly rides makes little difference

Alternatively, he could also do a Sastre 2008

 

[staubsauger]

if bruseghin is really in as good form as in 2008 giro, he will win this vuelta. anton and mosquera haven't got the quality of contador and ricco.

but will bruseghin really be able to be that strong again? that's the question. i don't think so, even if he seems to be very strong atm.

 

[jaylew]

So you haven't watched the Giro, the Dauphine and the Tour last years.

Good, now we know. Just keep watching and look how Nibali typically acts/reacts in mountain stages. And you'll see the light

Yeah, I watched all three but I didn't see anything that led me to believe that at 26, we can say that Nibali will always have a bad day and will never win a GT. Instead, I see a guy that has consistently improved and see no reason why it can't continue.

I certainly don't see his chances as any less than those of Van den Broeck, Gesink, Scarponi, or Mosquera, the contrary, in fact.

 

[theswordsman]

Yeah, I watched all three but I didn't see anything that led me to believe that at 26, we can say that Nibali will always have a bad day and will never win a GT. Instead, I see a guy that has consistently improved and see no reason why it can't continue.

I certainly don't see his chances as any less than those of Van den Broeck, Gesink, Scarponi, or Mosquera, the contrary, in fact.

I agree. Nibali finished on the podium in a really tough Giro while working for Basso, the winner. He did so as a replacement for Pellizotti. His training had been planned around the Tour Of California, with a peak for the Tour de France. Instead he was tossed into a race as probably the only Italian who didn't do serious stage recon. Basso had started in the winter, and done some stages more than once. Yet Nibali finished 2'31" down for the whole race, and 46 seconds behind Arroyo. He beat Vino, Sastre and Evans, who had all targeted the race.

Nibali for the win.

 

[nvpacchi]

I agree. Nibali finished on the podium in a really tough Giro while working for Basso, the winner. He did so as a replacement for Pellizotti. His training had been planned around the Tour Of California, with a peak for the Tour de France. Instead he was tossed into a race as probably the only Italian who didn't do serious stage recon. Basso had started in the winter, and done some stages more than once. Yet Nibali finished 2'31" down for the whole race, and 46 seconds behind Arroyo. He beat Vino, Sastre and Evans, who had all targeted the race.

Nibali for the win.

But everyone knows that the parcours for the ToC were harder than that of the Giro, so he actually went into the Giro better prepared than those who were targeting it.

Great win by Anton! And a side note, he was chilling/struggling at the back 10 to 12 km before the finish. If Anton was not having his best day today, and could still win, what happens when he is feeling normal?

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah, I watched all three but I didn't see anything that led me to believe that at 26, we can say that Nibali will always have a bad day and will never win a GT. Instead, I see a guy that has consistently improved and see no reason why it can't continue.

I certainly don't see his chances as any less than those of Van den Broeck, Gesink, Scarponi, or Mosquera, the contrary, in fact.

I think Mosquera will be very close to winning a GT. Maybe already at this Vuelta. Nibali... I don't know. Maybe the Giro, if he has a bit of luck with the other contestants. Then again, if he continues improving like this, who knows.

 

[Kwibus]

But everyone knows that the parcours for the ToC were harder than that of the Giro, so he actually went into the Giro better prepared than those who were targeting it.

Great win by Anton! And a side note, he was chilling/struggling at the back 10 to 12 km before the finish. If Anton was not having his best day today, and could still win, what happens when he is feeling normal?

I also thought he was in trouble at 10-12km before the finish, but if you can win the stage when you are in serious trouble in a group of 60 riders at 10km before the finish then I really doubt if he really was in trouble.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

His training had been planned around the Tour Of California, with a peak for the Tour de France.

I'm sure it's not what you meant, but saying training was 'planned around' the AToC suggests it was one of his season's goals, which I doubt very much.

I think Mosquera will be very close to winning a GT. Maybe already at this Vuelta. Nibali... I don't know. Maybe the Giro, if he has a bit of luck with the other contestants. Then again, if he continues improving like this, who knows.

Mosquera is 34, so he's running out of chances, "already" can't really come into it.

 

[nvpacchi]

I also thought he was in trouble at 10-12km before the finish, but if you can win the stage when you are in serious trouble in a group of 60 riders at 10km before the finish then I really doubt if he really was in trouble.

"I haven't had my best day today. I've had better feelings at Jaen and Xorret de Cati but it turned out well at the end because I have measured my efforts pretty well." - I. Anton (from the CN writeup)

Take this quote for what its worth, but it is reasonable to think he wasn't on top form today.

 

[Mellow Velo]

So, which Basque/Asturias stage will cause the most havoc amongst the contenders, this weekend?
Will the traditional, single ascent to Covadogna, or the combined, "heavy gradient" of the Cortobello stage?

Or will this little finishing hillock blow the GC race apart?

 

[Angliru]

Any close study of Nibali and you would know better.
It's always the same pattern.

Dauphine 09, Tour 09, Giro 2010...
hang with it...hang with it...hang with it... until you blow.
Especially on the longer, and long/steep mountains there is a point where he just simply cracks, at least twice during a grand tour.

As long as pure climbers participate, it's always the same. The only thing he improves in is hanging on longer and longer.
In his first years he was good enough to finish just top 20 in GT. Then it became top 10, and now top 5.
But there's always the 1 climb he blows, loses 2 minutes, and can forget about GC...

Unless he finds a GT field without Anton, Mosquera, Contador, Basso, Gesink, Scarponi, Andy Schleck, Denis Menchov, Jurgen Vandenbroeck and *name topclimber here*
Then perhaps..

You must have something personal against Nibali. He's young yet and as you state has shown steady growth. Who's to say he won't continue to improve as many current pro's have? You seem to be implying that he has virtually no chance at winning a grand tour in his career.

 

[icefire]

So, which Basque/Asturias stage will cause the most havoc amongst the contenders, this weekend?
Will the traditional, single ascent to Covadogna, or the combined, "heavy gradient" of the Cortobello stage?

Or will this little finishing hillock blow the GC race apart?

You never know. They may not go full gas in the first two saving for the last one and then be toast.

I expect Peña Cabarga to be similar to Xorret del Catí. In Covadonga, experience says that if there are no climbs before, 10 men will be within 1 minute of the winner. In theory, Cotobello is the real deal, but there are still many flat kms between climbs, so don't expect anything before the final one.

 

[The Hitch]

I think Mosquera will be very close to winning a GT. Maybe already at this Vuelta. Nibali... I don't know. Maybe the Giro, if he has a bit of luck with the other contestants. Then again, if he continues improving like this, who knows.

Mosquera is 35 years old, the same age as Sastre who is in many peoples eyes "past it", and older than cuddles who will not regain his 07 08 tdf form. He is on the down. I really really hope he can win this vuelta.

 

[roundabout]

You never know. They may not go full gas in the first two saving for the last one and then be toast.

I expect Peña Cabarga to be similar to Xorret del Catí. In Covadonga, experience says that if there are no climbs before, 10 men will be within 1 minute of the winner. In theory, Cotobello is the real deal, but there are still many flat kms between climbs, so don't expect anything before the final one.

Hope Mosquera comes out fighting again. Maybe not on the Peña Cabarga as it's not his sort of climb but definitely on the Covadonga.

 

[The Hitch]

Up untill now i was supporting Anton to win this. But if he really was struggling today and won, then its looking like this could resemble Basso Giro 06. I hence will be hoping to see Anton lose a bit of time now to make this interesting.

Maybe Caisse can cause havoc for Euskatel. 1 day Uran into the break. Next day Arroyo. Next day Luis Leon. Next day Bruseghin. Next day Ruben Plaza. If one fails to get into the break, the next one tries. Rotation system.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

You must have something personal against Nibali. He's young yet and as you state has shown steady growth. Who's to say he won't continue to improve as many current pro's have? You seem to be implying that he has virtually no chance at winning a grand tour in his career.

I have nothing against Nibali. He is a great rider. Just not a GT winner. Never will be.

 

[icefire]

Hope Mosquera comes out fighting again. Maybe not on the Peña Cabarga as it's not his sort of climb but definitely on the Covadonga.

He's made the difference between today's stage and the dull stage last time the Vuelta visited Pal ski resort. I hope he does the same in Covadonga, cause that's a climb I'm not very enthusiastic about. The steepest gradients are in the first half, and the second half has 3 downhill sections.

 

[hfer07]

Up untill now i was supporting Anton to win this. But if he really was struggling today and won, then its looking like this could resemble Basso Giro 06. I hence will be hoping to see Anton lose a bit of time now to make this interesting.

Maybe Caisse can cause havoc for Euskatel. 1 day Uran into the break. Next day Arroyo. Next day Luis Leon. Next day Bruseghin. Next day Ruben Plaza. If one fails to get into the break, the next one tries. Rotation system.

I'm thinking in similar way- If Anton keeps taking time over the competition like he's done it so far-& having in mind the most crucial mountain stages are ahead- I doubt the ITT will make any differences at all- I really wanted Mosquera to win today, but Igor rode today very wisely...

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I'm sure it's not what you meant, but saying training was 'planned around' the AToC suggests it was one of his season's goals, which I doubt very much.



Mosquera is 34, so he's running out of chances, "already" can't really come into it.

mosquera started racing at a relative late age he will be at this level for at least 2 or 3 more years or maybe even better I think

 

[nvpacchi]

Up untill now i was supporting Anton to win this. But if he really was struggling today and won, then its looking like this could resemble Basso Giro 06. I hence will be hoping to see Anton lose a bit of time now to make this interesting.

Maybe Caisse can cause havoc for Euskatel. 1 day Uran into the break. Next day Arroyo. Next day Luis Leon. Next day Bruseghin. Next day Ruben Plaza. If one fails to get into the break, the next one tries. Rotation system.

Basso didn't just win but destroyed his competition in 2006. Anton is winning by small increments, showing at least some mercy.

 

[theyoungest]

Mosquera is 34, so he's running out of chances, "already" can't really come into it.

I know he's not a spring chicken, but he's not really getting any worse, is he? Your typical late bloomer.

 

[Angliru]

back to Antón, he is pure class, a pure climber, he is fragile like glass and his way of speaking reminds to that of a tennager, his voice sounds very "infantile" and doesnt even sound like adult. He didn't say anything special, he is humble, use always clichés, comes from a very normal millieu.
He is not a "big mouth" or has a strong personality.

But, but, he is so passionate of this sport, he is like a child dreaming and in terms of class: he is following the path of pure, pure cilmbers of the history of this sport, he is obsessed with Pantani.

After this Vuelta for me is clear, he has everything to be one of the climbers of the last 20/30 years. Would be surprised if he doesn't win.

He can be with Conti and Andy at least at the same level. Of course he is not a TdF contender. But he is a contender for Vuelta and Giro too.

Aguirre, thanks for that insight into Anton. I'd been closely following his career since his Tour de Suisse stage victory from years ago and was quite excited about the form he showed early in the Vuelta before crashing out/or getting ill (was that last year or 2 years ago). I'm always excited about a new and up and coming climbing talent and it is fantastic to see Anton fulfilling his potential and, most importantly for me, carrying on the Basque tradition of creating great climbers.

 

[Angliru]

If you win a stage you celebrate it how you want. I understand people complaining about Contador doing the pistol salute when on the podium, but when he crossess the line first he can celebrate how he wants it. Same with everyone.

+1. Wins for some come few and far between so however they celebrate their victory is alright with me. I believe for some reason that Contador's is a way of acknowledging his family and brother back home. Either way I've grown accustomed to his victory celebration after making sense of it on my own.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Aguirre, thanks for that insight into Anton. I'd been closely following his career since his Tour de Suisse stage victory from years ago and was quite excited about the form he showed early in the Vuelta before crashing out/or getting ill (was that last year or 2 years ago). I'm always excited about a new and up and coming climbing talent and it is fantastic to see Anton fulfilling his potential and, most importantly for me, carrying on the Basque tradition of creating great climbers.

I started following him more since Romandy 2007 when he cut off the great Thomas Dekker in the sprint for the stage win in Morgins