Vuelta a España - Stage 11 Vilanova i la Geltrú - Andorra 208.4km

[halamala]

1 Igor ANTON HERNANDEZ EUS 5:25:44
2 Ezequiel MOSQUERA MIGUEZ XAC 3
3 Xavier TONDO VOLPINI CTT 10
4 Rigoberto URAN URAN GCE 16
5 Vincenzo NIBALI LIQ 23

http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=30227

Something is wrong. Where is Bruseghin? I think he finished wth Uran 16 seconds behind Anton.

 

[jaylew]

In his first years he was good enough to finish just top 20 in GT. Then it became top 10, and now top 5.

Sounds like a pretty great trajectory, especially considering he's up to top 3 now, which is better than 5 of the riders you mention below have ever achieved

But there's always the 1 climb he blows, loses 2 minutes, and can forget about GC...

Unless he finds a GT field without Anton, Mosquera, Contador, Basso, Gesink, Scarponi, Andy Schleck, Denis Menchov, Jurgen Vandenbroeck and *name topclimber here*
Then perhaps..

Sorry, DT, just not buying what you're selling here.

 

[skidmark]

Man, how about that victory salute? Awesome. What was he doing? Chopping down his rivals?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I agree with DT that Nibali struggles on the steep stuff.

But I think his progress has been pretty solid over the last yew seasons. Discounting him as a future/present GT threat is stupid.
He needs to improve on teh steep stuff though, this is certain.

 

[Christomir]

if memory serves me right, nibali didn't do so great at the long ITT at the 09' tour.

Well, I don't know if that says much, but at that particular ITT he was 2'06'' ahead of Menchov and 2'25'' ahead of Anton...

And I think Nibali is a better overall rider this year (although the same could be argued about Anton).

 

[Kwibus]

Man, how about that victory salute? Awesome. What was he doing? Chopping down his rivals?

Haha yeh I loved it too. I'm not sure if he had an idea what he was doing, but I thought it was great

 

[Kwibus]

Sounds like a pretty great trajectory, especially considering he's up to top 3 now, which is better than 5 of the riders you mention below have ever achieved


Sorry, DT, just not buying what you're selling here.

He's kinda contradicting himself too. As he points out Nibali is able to hang in there longer and longer and his age could promiss that at some point he hangs in there until the finish line.
Nibali is just 25 and we'll see him contending for GCs plenty of times the next 10 years and who knows he manages to win 1 or 2 some day. Never the TdF though.

 

[Tornadin]

http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=30227

Something is wrong. Where is Bruseghin? I think he finished wth Uran 16 seconds behind Anton.

yea, there were definitely two Caisse riders crossing the line together shortly after Anton.

So I guess he might have been disqualified and is therefore not listed in the official result.

Edit: they just changed it, Bruseghin was best Caisse rider today and with his itt abilities certainly a contender not to ignore

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

He's kinda contradicting himself too. As he points out Nibali is able to hang in there longer and longer and his age could promiss that at some point he hangs in there until the finish line.
Nibali is just 25 and we'll see him contending for GCs plenty of times the next 10 years and who knows he manages to win 1 or 2 some day. Never the TdF though.

the thing is niabeli is always racing in the red and not many can hold that for 3 weeks, nibali always has a big crack in every gt. he can become stronger but he just isn't a natural climber and will always have this problem, if he improves his toughness it can get better but even extreme tough guys like vino usually had a bad day

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Sounds like a pretty great trajectory, especially considering he's up to top 3 now, which is better than 5 of the riders you mention below have ever achieved


Sorry, DT, just not buying what you're selling here.

So you haven't watched the Giro, the Dauphine and the Tour last years.

Good, now we know. Just keep watching and look how Nibali typically acts/reacts in mountain stages. And you'll see the light

 

[roundabout]

Bruseghin is there in 4th on the stage and 6th on gc now

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I agree with DT that Nibali struggles on the steep stuff.

But I think his progress has been pretty solid over the last yew seasons. Discounting him as a future/present GT threat is stupid.
He needs to improve on teh steep stuff though, this is certain.

Where did I do that? I'm just saying as long as a pure climber is there to do some serious damage to Nibali in the serious mountain stages, Nibali will have trouble winning
Nibali reminds me of Erik Breukink that way. Very good, but winning a GC...

Or a more recent example, Cadel Evans... same type of rider. (although better ITT)

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He's kinda contradicting himself too. As he points out Nibali is able to hang in there longer and longer and his age could promiss that at some point he hangs in there until the finish line.
Nibali is just 25 and we'll see him contending for GCs plenty of times the next 10 years and who knows he manages to win 1 or 2 some day. Never the TdF though.

I'm not contradicting myself, I see him hanging at one point. There is the point where he cannot improve anymore. Like I said, kinda like Breukink etc..

Ask yourself this question, has Valverde improved much after his 23th? Has Boonen? Has Contador?

People who are at the top pretty quickly don't improve that much every year, even when they are 'just 25'.
There is still room for improvement. But not by large quantities....

 

[hrotha]

Always in the red zone trying to limit his losses? Sounds like Gesink at this year's Tour to me.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Bruseghin is there in 4th on the stage and 6th on gc now

If the steep stuff doesn't get him, then Bruiser with his ITTing, is looking more and more like the Vuelta's podium dark horse.........or maybe in his case, the dark donkey.

DT can now tell me why this isn't going to happen!

 

[ttrider]

I think Nibalis problem was clearly his pacing, he looked very strong to form the initial trio but then looked blown before recovering for a 23 second loss, now surely he was stronger than Bruzeghin and Uran, if he had stayed and wheel sucked either them or Tondo he would have lost 10 seconds ish, nothing at all
Racing Mosquera for basically the first time he probably didnt realise his tendency to go early but did know about his threat and so duly got carried away and covered him
To be honest on the evidence of that i have the podium as
Anton
Nibali
Mosquera/Bruzegin
Mosquera will drop big time in a TT and Nibali is not that weak anyway as i said
Rodriguez really is blown though and Tondo has never finished 3 weeks so is still anyones guess
The win rests on wether Anton can maintain his level, i suspect he can actually although his team is very weak

 

[hrotha]

The win rests on wether Anton can maintain his level, i suspect he can actually although his team is very weak

Come on, they have Intxausti!

Seriously though, Mikel Nieve is doing great but I'm not sure that'll be enough if Caisse decides to go bonkers.

 

[Escarabajo]

I'm not contradicting myself, I see him hanging at one point. There is the point where he cannot improve anymore. Like I said, kinda like Breukink etc..

Ask yourself this question, has Valverde improved much after his 23th? Has Boonen? Has Contador?

People who are at the top pretty quickly don't improve that much every year, even when they are 'just 25'.
There is still room for improvement. But not by large quantities....

Naturally speaking, you are right. That's it.

 

[roundabout]

I don't think EE are that weak. Also there's really only one stage to exploit any weakness in the team, maybe 2 at most.

 

[Escarabajo]

What about BRUSEGHIN? he is climbing better than pure climbers. If can keep that up, he would be a threat with the ITT coming up.

Another point of view is that GCE team can attack any day now and play their cards. Anyone of the top 3 will have to be willing to be sacrified. Which one would be?

 

[ttrider]

Come on, they have Intxausti!

Seriously though, Mikel Nieve is doing great but I'm not sure that'll be enough if Caisse decides to go bonkers.

Yeh i agree, Intxausti appear off form, top marks to nieve but the reality is Caisse could really blow this race to pieces, with plaza and Bruzegin they can gain a lot in the tt so if one can gain 2 minutes in an early attack on a mountain stage they could easily take the vuelta! Uran is also a real wild card, for them.

Although 5 is great i think its time to either right off Aroyo and Sanchez chances and use them as domestiques or get them to try for long breaks (unlikely), i say use them as super doms to hammer the other teams

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

What about BRUSEGHIN? he is climbing better than pure climbers. If can keep that up, he would be a threat with the ITT coming up.

Another point of view is that GCE team can attack any day now and play their cards. Anyone of the top 3 will have to be willing to be sacrified. Which one would be?

Definately an outsider.
But there is only 1 long ITT right?

And with La Covadonga and Bola del Mundo still to come.... hmhmhm

 

[hiero2]

I think Nibalis problem was clearly his pacing, he looked very strong to form the initial trio but then looked blown before recovering for a 23 second loss, now surely he was stronger than Bruzeghin and Uran, if he had stayed and wheel sucked either them or Tondo he would have lost 10 seconds ish, nothing at all
Racing Mosquera for basically the first time he probably didnt realise his tendency to go early but did know about his threat and so duly got carried away and covered him
To be honest on the evidence of that i have the podium as
Anton
Nibali
Mosquera/Bruzegin
Mosquera will drop big time in a TT and Nibali is not that weak anyway as i said
Rodriguez really is blown though and Tondo has never finished 3 weeks so is still anyones guess
The win rests on wether Anton can maintain his level, i suspect he can actually although his team is very weak

Anton, yup - I think you've pretty much got it with this one. I think he put the first nail in today. Next couple of days for the sprinters, then this weekend. My guess is we'll see the final nails go in on Saturday and Sunday, and that should give us most of the podium. I don't have your confidence in 2nd and 3rd slots, tho, but we shall see!

An interesting Vuelta - given that the big names favored early aren't there. Frank still has a shot, but he's gonna have to make a big move soon, and after today, I don't think he's got it.

 

[Aguirre]

I don't think EE are that weak. Also there's really only one stage to exploit any weakness in the team, maybe 2 at most.

Agree, EE is not week, nieve, intxausti, egoi martinez and txurruka. Then there are not stages for strategy, those are gone during the first week, and Caisse, even if they won 2, tactical leaders didn't move.

Right now seems clear main candidat is Anton, and he is fresh, still 4 finishes up, 3 of them quite/very steep. He can loose 2 minutes with Nibali in TT, but manage to win 3 overall in mountain finishes + bonification.

Forget, Purito Rdrez, he will be tired at the end. Then I see Mosquera and maybe Tondo for podium.

Bruseguin and Uran will colapse in Bola del Mundo, or before.

I will a surprise if Anton doesn't maintain his level. Now he is the strongest and deserves the overall.

 

[luckyboy]

Pretty great stage. Would've been nice if Rodriguez could've hung on. Also good to see Moncoutie up there, normally he either wins or is a few minutes back.

Would be cool (race-wise) if Anton blows on Cotobello somehow. That'd blow this race open. Doubt it'll happen though.