Vuelta a España - Stage 11 Vilanova i la Geltrú - Andorra 208.4km

[The Hitch]

Was going to say that Moncoutie had done well in the king of the mountains comp having come seventh but points only went down to 5th

Hes going for the combined as well. Or at least hes wearing it i think.

 

[Frosty]

Fair enough, though at least i can say i beat Harmon, considering his 16 riders contesting the finish prediction.

And its not just the steepness or length of the climb which made me think there was going to be action. Its the fact that yesterday Xacebo were pushing it on the small climb 40k out. This is a competition with no king and many pretenders. There are many who are going to try to reeach out and grab the crown. As it happens i rightly guessed it was Mosquera who did this by attacking but it could have been anyone.

Couple of quiet days coming up too so its less risky than if there was a big stage tomorrow. Sixteen riders were barely covered by a minute in the end.

 

[sublimit]

i loved the way Mosquera just put his head down and went for it, no looking around or acting like a showpony like certain other riders tend to. Great stage and Anton for the Vuelta but Mosquera wont go without a fight.

 

[The Hitch]

For once the official prediction was right.

Official prediction: Mosquerra enters the fray

Ive been thinking that this is the stage Ezequiel starts to gain time for a while.

 

[The Hitch]

1 other point about Mosquera is that the people he lost to last year and year before are not here. No conti, piti, Sami, cuddles or basso.

(sastre is here but not in his usual form)

Anton might step up but there is a little way to go yet.

 

[Barrus]

I ahve a question to ask you all, how much time do you guys think Mosquera and Anton will need on Nibali going into the time trial?

 

[Frosty]

Hes going for the combined as well. Or at least hes wearing it i think.

Hes lost the combined today though. The big GC guys hadnt really featured in the mountains competition and they got a load in the points too. Anton is the new points and combined leader.

In the other competitions, Cervelo did well today placing Tondo, Cuesta and Sastre high up. Three in the top 10.

 

[hrotha]

I think you're all being too quick to judge Nibali. This could just be his off day.

Personally I just think Nibali, Purito and Mosquera made the mistake of going too fast too early and blowing up as a result. From the beginning of the attack it was obvious Nibali was hanging on for dear life with all he got, and he paid it in the end just like his two companions. Compare that to how Antón and Tondo went.

 

[Kwibus]

Mosqeura is good at animating the vuelta, he has done so the last few vueltas. makes the race better, unfortunately his early attacks harms his chances imo.

I have preferred the vuelta and giro over the tour for a long time.

And I as a long long time TdF follower (and the spring classics) is figuring that out this season Giro was and Vuelta so far is great.

I was about to point out that without Mosquera nothing special would've happened, unless someone else would've attacked.., but who would that have been really? I love the guy and I hope he keeps on animating the Vuelta allthough it seems to come at a cost for him. Really really really hope he wins a stage though.

 

[Christomir]

Por 3 prediction

Fränk looked surprisingly good, actually - he lost just 23'', when I
expected him to lose much more and say "bye" to his chances for the podium. Although, to be fair, those chances aren't big regardless.

Anyway, after what happened today and considering there is still that longish ITT to be ridden, along with the 4 mountain stages, do you guys think I still have any shot at getting the final podium right with my initial prediction? -

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Fränk Schleck
3. Igor Antón


(Yah, as I said, I know the 2nd place is highly unlickely, but at least 1st and 3rd, maybe?)

 

[jens_attacks]

thanks god for cycling and for attacks.thanks god for igor anton and ezequiel mosquera.

regarding the show,this stage was better than all stages from 2009 combined.

omg seeing nibali cracking in the wheel of mosquera was so fuccin awesome.moar moar moar!

 

[Kwibus]

Fränk looked surprisingly good, actually - he lost just 23'', when I
expected him to lose much more and say "bye" to his chances for the podium. Although, to be fair, those chances aren't big regardless.

Anyway, after what happened today and considering there is still that longish ITT to be ridden, along with the 4 mountain stages, do you guys think I still have any shot at getting the final podium right with my initial prediction? -

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Fränk Schleck
3. Igor Antón


(Yah, as I said, I know the 2nd place is highly unlickely, but at least 1st and 3rd, maybe?)

1st and 3rd and still very possible, but looking at the previous results this Vuelta it seems better to switch 1 and 3, but there are still plenty of stages to go.

edit: It's really odd that my reply is above the post I'm replying too!

 

[Christomir]

Top 3 prediction

Fränk looked surprisingly good, actually - he lost just 23'', when I
expected him to lose much more and say "bye" to his chances for the podium. Although, to be fair, those chances aren't big regardless.

Anyway, after what happened today and considering there is still that longish ITT to be ridden, along with the 4 mountain stages, do you guys think I still have any shot at getting the final podium right with my initial prediction? -

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Fränk Schleck
3. Igor Antón


(Yah, as I said, I know the 2nd place is highly unlickely, but at least 1st and 3rd, maybe?)

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Fränk looked surprisingly good, actually - he lost just 23'', when I
expected him to lose much more and say "bye" to his chances for the podium. Although, to be fair, those chances aren't big regardless.

Anyway, after what happened today and considering there is still that longish ITT to be ridden, along with the 4 mountain stages, do you guys think I still have any shot at getting the final podium right with my initial prediction? -

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Fränk Schleck
3. Igor Antón


(Yah, as I said, I know the 2nd place is highly unlickely, but at least 1st and 3rd, maybe?)

To be honest, harder climbs are coming. Nibali wont be a match for anton or mosqeura, and by the looks of it tondo either. But I expect he will finish on the podium.

I struggle to see anton not winning this... Schleck I doubt will make the podium.

 

[maltiv]

Personally I just think Nibali, Purito and Mosquera made the mistake of going too fast too early and blowing up as a result. From the beginning of the attack it was obvious Nibali was hanging on for dear life with all he got, and he paid it in the end just like his two companions. Compare that to how Antón and Tondo went.

Indeed. Impressive stuff by Anton, instead of panicking like Purito he just kept calm, probably keeping an eye on his heart rate and realised the pace set by Mosquera was a little too fast.

Cuesta...41 years old and paces Sastre up the entire climb. Wow.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think you're all being too quick to judge Nibali. This could just be his off day.

Any close study of Nibali and you would know better.
It's always the same pattern.

Dauphine 09, Tour 09, Giro 2010...
hang with it...hang with it...hang with it... until you blow.
Especially on the longer, and long/steep mountains there is a point where he just simply cracks, at least twice during a grand tour.

As long as pure climbers participate, it's always the same. The only thing he improves in is hanging on longer and longer.
In his first years he was good enough to finish just top 20 in GT. Then it became top 10, and now top 5.
But there's always the 1 climb he blows, loses 2 minutes, and can forget about GC...

Unless he finds a GT field without Anton, Mosquera, Contador, Basso, Gesink, Scarponi, Andy Schleck, Denis Menchov, Jurgen Vandenbroeck and *name topclimber here*
Then perhaps..

 

[hrotha]

To be honest, harder climbs are coming. Nibali wont be a match for anton or mosqeura, and by the looks of it tondo either. But I expect he will finish on the podium.

I struggle to see anton not winning this... Schleck I doubt will make the podium.

The good thing is no one here is so dominant you couldn't imagine the balance of strength changing by the end of the race. If anything it was clear Purito would run out of gas eventually and Fränk would get better, although it's hard to say by how much, but other than that, who knows.

 

[The Hitch]

I ahve a question to ask you all, how much time do you guys think Mosquera and Anton will need on Nibali going into the time trial?

The time trial is early. Before a few mountain stages. The best Nibali can hope for will i think be about a minute - a minute and half, but he could lose more than that on future mountain stages.

 

[Christomir]

1st and 3rd and still very possible, but looking at the previous results this Vuelta it seems better to switch 1 and 3, but there are still plenty of stages to go.

Yeah, I know

But I'm still hoping for a big gain for Nibali at the ITT. And also for someone else (Mosquera?, Tondo??) to sneak in at 2nd in the final GC, so that Anton only comes 3rd. You see, I win a point for every rider I get right in the Top 3 of the GC...lol

 

[Christomir]

edit: It's really odd that my reply is above the post I'm replying too!

Haha... That's because the title of my post was screwed up, for some reason, so I deleted the entire thing and reposted it You were too quick to reply

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

if memory serves me right, nibali didn't do so great at the long ITT at the 09' tour.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

uran!!! _O_

 

[Francois the Postman]

Cuesta...41 years old and paces Sastre up the entire climb. Wow.

Yup, 41 and finishing ahead of quite a few big names, who really tried. Astounding.

 

[Frosty]

Menchov lost 5.06 in the end.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Ruben Plaza? He's still up there and useful against the clock.
Where's The Bruiser gone to GC wise? Another Caisse trialist.

Christomir: You mustn't mention Frank Schleck and the words grand tour podium, in the same sentence, or else you will set off another DT rant again.