How to predict the unpredictable? Two things I didn’t think I’d type. First, I don’t think this stage will decide the Vuelta. Second, I think we’ll get somebody attack on the penultimate climb like today even though that is clearly insane. Nibali and Menchov maybe who are least likely to be satisfied with their current position? Can Moreno try three days running? Will Sastre again remain utterly anonymous during what could be his swansong? They could all be considered far enough back now for Wiggins to let them run on that penultimate climb (how tough is it, what is the descent like?)
Angliru looks mad – I’m not sure I can even picture 23%. I was very much in the “Wiggins will go pop” camp when the GC was so close - I figured he'd gamble into going deep into the red if he was facing dropping off the podium. But after today he’s given himself a little buffer again, so I think he can afford to just pace himself to the top, limit his losses and cling on to the hope that he’ll be close enough to fire a counter attack in the final week on a slightly less crazy mountain top finish.
Stagewin
I’ve resigned myself to the fact Van den Broeck (who I had in mind for this stage) is either not in the physical condition, or mentally willing to launch an all out attack. What the heck was that he did today? Jump onto the wheels of someone going after Cobo, sit about 2 metres infront of the peloton for 10 seconds and then veer wildly like a drunkard into Froome’s path and almost push him off the road! He’s done that sort of half hearted prod on the last few mountain stages instead of saving his effort, picking his spot and having one great push. I fear I’ve overestimated him (though I won’t be hard on him, its amazing he is even here after his crash).
Mollema is saying he wasn’t feeling so good today (although it could be mind games) and it doesn’t look like a stage where his team could help him (even if they hadn’t all seemed to have hit the wall). I think Mollema will just stay glued to Wiggins and if he is feeling good, try something in that last 3kms. The later the better for Mollema, particularly if there are time bonuses available.
You can let Rodriguez go off on his own now as he is so far back, so I’m tempted to go for him despite his lack of form. However, I can’t see past Cobo after his great form in the time trial (just 1min 40 off Wiggins, & 40secs off Nibali) and then todays events.
Prediction Score: 1 out of 14
Angliru looks mad – I’m not sure I can even picture 23%. I was very much in the “Wiggins will go pop” camp when the GC was so close - I figured he'd gamble into going deep into the red if he was facing dropping off the podium. But after today he’s given himself a little buffer again, so I think he can afford to just pace himself to the top, limit his losses and cling on to the hope that he’ll be close enough to fire a counter attack in the final week on a slightly less crazy mountain top finish.
Stagewin
I’ve resigned myself to the fact Van den Broeck (who I had in mind for this stage) is either not in the physical condition, or mentally willing to launch an all out attack. What the heck was that he did today? Jump onto the wheels of someone going after Cobo, sit about 2 metres infront of the peloton for 10 seconds and then veer wildly like a drunkard into Froome’s path and almost push him off the road! He’s done that sort of half hearted prod on the last few mountain stages instead of saving his effort, picking his spot and having one great push. I fear I’ve overestimated him (though I won’t be hard on him, its amazing he is even here after his crash).
Mollema is saying he wasn’t feeling so good today (although it could be mind games) and it doesn’t look like a stage where his team could help him (even if they hadn’t all seemed to have hit the wall). I think Mollema will just stay glued to Wiggins and if he is feeling good, try something in that last 3kms. The later the better for Mollema, particularly if there are time bonuses available.
You can let Rodriguez go off on his own now as he is so far back, so I’m tempted to go for him despite his lack of form. However, I can’t see past Cobo after his great form in the time trial (just 1min 40 off Wiggins, & 40secs off Nibali) and then todays events.
Prediction Score: 1 out of 14
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