Vuelta a España - Stage 17 - Peñafiel individual time trial, 46 km

[Escarabajo]

Exactly what one should expect from someone at his age. It is a good sign that he doesn't have energy left in the third week, even after a rest day, if you know what I mean.

...

+1. I have to agree with you on this one.

 

[icefire]

Really hope Mosquera gets this now.

Mosq v Nibs

Sevilla TTT - lost 16s
Malaga - lost 4s
Valdepeñas de Jaén - lost 11s + 12s bonus
Xorret del Cati - lost 33s
Andorra - won 20s + 12s bonus
Peña Cabarga - lost 2s + 4s bonus
Lagos de Covadonga - won 11s
Cotobello - won 19s
Peñafiel TT - lost 19s


Liquigas will try to let a break win and take the bonus seconds for sure. By the looks of the high mountains so far, Mosquera should be able to hopefully take 39s+ back. Should be the best end to a GT in a while.

...or it might be a replay of Giro 1975

 

[maltiv]

Some select riders who took approximately 2 minutes or more on Rodriguez: Mark Cavendish, Daniele Bennati, Allan Davis...and I doubt those guys were trying to do anything else than to stay inside the time-limit!

 

[joy118118]

http://www.cyclingbase.com/resultatcal.php?id=195&idsaison=29&idtitle=2

His 'best' result at protour level is a 10th place in this years Tour du Pays basque

He finished 5 seconds behind Rodriguez that day.


Loathe to say it but something extremely fishy IMO

The TT in Vuelta al Pais Vasco is a mountain TT. In Volta ao Algarve and Critérium International he is better than riders like Kloeden and Pinotti though these TT are much shorter than today. In Milram he shows nothing on TT. this year he hasnt too many race days - only 41 days till now so it is hard to judge how good his TT this year actually is. But I am sure he can handle it well.

 

[The Hitch]

I opened a Vuelta thread in the clinic for those who want to discuss Peters "fishyness"

Its better to do it there than subtily here and i want to read what yall think.

 

[Frosty]

Some select riders who took approximately 2 minutes or more on Rodriguez: Mark Cavendish, Daniele Bennati, Allan Davis...and I doubt those guys were trying to do anything else than to stay inside the time-limit!

Yeah, i was a bit surprised by Cavendish's time as he normally seems to aim to get in a few minutes before the time limit. Then again there havent been many sprint stages recently so maybe these guys are feeling relatively good (Davis's 27th the other day hasnt been corrected so maybe that was true as well). Maybe they wanted to loosen their legs up for tomorrow?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

The TT in Vuelta al Pais Vasco is a mountain TT. In Volta ao Algarve and Critérium International he is better than riders like Kloeden and Pinotti though these TT are much shorter than today. In Milram he shows nothing on TT. this year he hasnt too many race days - only 41 days till now so it is hard to judge how good his TT this year actually is. But I am sure he can handle it well.

There is a difference between doing "well" at a TT and obliterating Cancellara and the other specialists on a long, flat, Grand Tour TT. I can see absolutely nothing in his past record, at any level, which would give an advance indication of an ability to do that.

It's an astonishing performance. By far the most remarkable performance of any rider on any stage of this Vuelta.

 

[Boardslide]

Ehh what are Peter Velits previous TT results? Anything that indicates he should be able to beat Cancellara, Menchov and Larsson on a flat TT?

According to Sean Kelly TT is a strong point of Peter's also you must remember

1. Before the stage Canc said he was suffering from a cold & feeling below par also he would have prefered it a little lumpier
2. Tail wind got stronger for the later riders compared to the earlier ones

 

[joy118118]

There is a difference between doing "well" at a TT and obliterating Cancellara and the other specialists on a long, flat, Grand Tour TT. I can see absolutely nothing in his past record, at any level, which would give an advance indication of an ability to do that.

It's an astonishing performance. By far the most remarkable performance of any rider on any stage of this Vuelta.

yep, also a little surprise to me today.

But if he can beat guys like Kloeden, I believe he is able to finish top 10 today. As i says, he shows he has a good TT only in this year and people missed it easily for these are short or mountain TTs. Milram didnt have a good training advices and schedules for him in the past 2 years.

well, I admit I have some bias on him. But after Volta ao Algarve i do believe his TT is good enough...

Cancellara is not on form today i think. he seemed to say he had a cold?

 

[The Hitch]

According to Sean Kelly TT is a strong point of Peter's also you must remeber

1. Before the stage Canc said he was suffering from a cold & feeling below par also he would have prefered it a little lumpier
2. Tail wind got stronger for the later riders compared to the earlier ones

But there were plenty of other tt specialists there as well. If beating canc by x isnt as impressive as it seems because Canc had a cold , what about beating Larsson, Millar, Zabriskie, etc by y.

Not to mention Menchov

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

According to Sean Kelly TT is a strong point of Peter's also you must remeber

1. Before the stage Canc said he was suffering from a cold & feeling below par also he would have prefered it a little lumpier
2. Tail wind got stronger for the later riders compared to the earlier ones

Velit's performance was better than the above would indicate.

1) While people have said that he has been good in the past at TTs, his record as a pro is that of someone who is moderately good, or good by the standards of the GC top 10 at this Vuelta, rather than someone who has been competitive with the likes of Cancellara / Millar / Zabriskie. And certainly not someone who would absolutely demolish the aforementioned.

2) Presumably Menchov, Millar, Zabriskie, Larsson, etc weren't also suffering from Cancellara's apparent cold.

3) He caught Tom Danielson, someone with a markedly better TT record as a pro, on the road. Danielson was riding under the same wind conditions and didn't post a bad time at all. Quite a few of the other guys with high level TT records went relatively late in the order.

His performance was remarkable. It's the best performance by any rider in any stage of the Vuelta, as compared to the past record of that rider.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Velits got a huge advantage from the weather conditions tho. The later you started, the better it seems. Almost all TT experts started really early, when the wind was still blowing the other way. When Menchov was on his way, the wind was just turning, giving him the advantage in the second part. So Velits was just really lucky.

 

[Jukebox]

Barredo and Gilbert both in the top ten on the stage, coming into some fine form for worlds.

 

[hrotha]

Velits got a huge advantage from the weather conditions tho. The later you started, the better it seems. Almost all TT experts started really early, when the wind was still blowing the other way. When Menchov was on his way, the wind was just turning, giving him the advantage in the second part. So Velits was just really lucky.

Doesn't explain Larsson though.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Doesn't explain Larsson though.

Or catching Danielson on the road. Or beating Menchov. Or putting more than a minute into LL Sanchez. All of those guys have much better TT records and all went under similar weather conditions. And all rode well today.

 

[jaylew]

Nope. Because Mosquera lost more than this to Nibali in the ttt. Ie Nibali started of with a 20 second or so head start. He lost it here. good. He still has the advantage of a far better team.

I don't see it that way as without the TTT we would have had in all likelihood, another TT where he would have gained some seconds anyway.

Really hope Mosquera gets this now.


Liquigas will try to let a break win and take the bonus seconds for sure. By the looks of the high mountains so far, Mosquera should be able to hopefully take 39s+ back. Should be the best end to a GT in a while.

He may not even need that much if he can get a time bonus. Nibali is in a difficult situation. He's going to be tempted to go with any Mosquera attack, but he performs better when he goes his own pace. Kreuziger is going to be crucial for him.

My prediction is Mosquera finishes in the top 2, picks up some bonus seconds and Nibs finishes 3rd or or 4th on the stage and rues the ~30 seconds he lost with that flat.

 

[saganftw]

its been proved many times before,last TT in GT (especially 3rd GT in a season) is not about TT skills as much as its about who is the strongest guy that day...if you have every cyclist in same form before TT im sure cancelara ,larsson,zabriskie etc, would have top velits by minute or two

dont forget velits doesnt have many racing days this season,hes relatively fresh compared to other guys,btw barredo and gilbert top10 is WTF as well,they all feel well and can deliver good results

 

[indurain666]

. Would've been 3 if he could shift correctly.

Nah, even with proper shifting, that attack was nothing. It looked hard cause it was a gentle slope and the group was riding very slow tempo. But he would have stopped as soon as Contador would have got on his wheel.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

its been proved many times before,last TT in GT (especially 3rd GT in a season) is not about TT skills as much as its about who is the strongest guy that day...if you have every cyclist in same form before TT im sure cancelara ,larsson,zabriskie etc, would have top velits by minute or two

dont forget velits doesnt have many racing days this season,hes relatively fresh compared to other guys,btw barredo and gilbert top10 is WTF as well,they all feel well and can deliver good results

On Monday, Velits cracked like an egg. He certainly wasn't the strongest guy in the field 48 hours ago. He has certainly shown remarkable powers of recovery over that period, particularly so late in the first GT he's ever done well in. It bodes well for his future as a GC racer, I suppose.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Hmm, Biciclismo reports Theo Bos was hit by a moto during his TT, and also the reason he fell/gave up.

How can that happen

 

[jaylew]

So, among GC guys, we had:

Velits
Tondo 1:29
Sastre 1:47
Danielson 1:53
Nibali 1:54 (with flat)
Mosquera 2:13
Roche 3:29
Schleck 3:55
Rodriguez 6:12

Other than Velits, the biggest surprises for me were Tondo and Roche. Admittedly, I didn't know much about him before this year, but Tondo would have finished close to Nibali without his flat and I expected more from Roche. The two guys who raced the Tour seem to have suffered the most today.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Tondo is the least surprise for me. He is actually known as decent tt-specialist you know

 

[salixcycling]

Other than Velits, the biggest surprises for me were Tondo and Roche. Admittedly, I didn't know much about him before this year, but Tondo would have finished close to Nibali without his flat and I expected more from Roche. The two guys who raced the Tour seem to have suffered the most today.

Roche had a disappointing TT, but it wasn't that surprising, and it wasn't that terrible.

He still has a decent shot at a top 5 placing - hope he has the motivation to go for it.

 

[maltiv]

Impressive from Sastre though, who also did a good TT in TDF this year actually. He's still in contention for a podium spot if Velits cracks on saturday.

Roche should definitely work on his TT, I don't see any logical reason why he should be so average in time trials. His body looks more like the body of a TT specialist than the body of a climber. I really hope he can get back in the top 5, but it will be tough.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Other than Velits, the biggest surprises for me were Tondo and Roche. Admittedly, I didn't know much about him before this year, but Tondo would have finished close to Nibali without his flat and I expected more from Roche. The two guys who raced the Tour seem to have suffered the most today.

Tondó won the Volta a Portugal in 2007. He won it because he was lying in third after the big mountain stage, and then vaulted up to 1st with his TT.

He blows hot and cold with time trials of decent length, but he's certainly very capable. And he was one of the guys who would benefit most from the rest day, since he's never finished a GT before. He's also shown from the mountain stages that he's pretty canny when it comes to knowing when to expend effort - he was dropped very early on the Cotobello, as opposed to Velits who disappeared with only about 3k to go, but nearly caught him. And he was way back on Pal before coming surging back to finish 3rd on the stage. His doing a good TT given the conditions he was riding in and the motivation of a home GT top 10/beating Sastre isn't a surprise.