Vuelta a España - Stage 4 Málaga - Valdepeñas de Jaén 183.8km

[jaylew]

Where?

I know he's served as a domestique for other guys in many races, so hasn't had great chances to show what he can do in big climbs against big names... but what results has he had that show him to be superior to Kreuziger or Brajkovic in climbing?

Brajkovic has a 2nd place finish on the Alpe d'huez in the Dauphine Libere. Kreuziger has had some solid finishes at big climbs in the Tour the past couple of years.

I'm not sure what Anton has done that surpasses that in terms of climbing accomplishment. He's got some good results... but nothing that jumps out and shouts that he's way better then the other two.

I'm not saying he ISN'T better... as I said before, he hasn't really had many opportunities. I'm just not sure what he's done that makes him more promising then other younger climbers.

We're talking about pure climbing ability. The kind of guy who you can pick to possibly win a race when it ends on a climb.

Brajkovic had that 2nd at the Dauphiné, but lets be honest: He had possibly the best form of his life (look at he way he dominated the TT) and the other guys who were top climbers who were there either didn't go all out or weren't in form yet. 4 French guys finished in the top 10 of that stage, after all.

Kreuziger is a good climber but he's not going to win a climbing stage against the top guys generally.

When he's fit, you can expect Anton to compete for the win in a race geared towards climbers with the top climbers there. A quick example is at Castilla y Leon this year when he bested Contador, Soler, and Mosquera (Brajkovic did finish in 4th , 1:30 down). There are other examples I will mention when I finish, but I'm about to be late for a meeting.

Edit: Nevermind, I see LS came to my aid.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I'd just add this to back up LS's fine info post.



Check out who he beat on stage 3:
http://www.steephill.tv/vuelta-castilla-y-leon/

The Tour de Romandie stage he won this year, was after he rode away from everyone, on a 10km 10% gradient.

As for Frank Schleck, however, I'd have to agree with Kurt.
Winning both last year's Tour Queen stage and Alpe d'Huez in 2006
does more than suggest Senior Schleck doesn't blow up, if the climb is
over 5kms in length.

 

[theswordsman]

They've updated it now. Cancellara came in with Cavendish/Farrar/Sky sick bay @19.46. Three behind that group with Dave Z last to finish @25'. Schleck finished 14 minutes down, next to Petacchi.

Thanks. I've been whinging lately about how Contador is doing nothing to prepare for next year's Tour while Schleck is doing this great three week training block, but I guess I'll shut up now. I can't see him helping Frank do anything, and I'm not sure how some of these guys are going to deal with Bola del Mundo.

It sure seems like Schlecklet had a magical three or four weeks with not much form before or after.

It's nice to see guys like Nibali and Luisle willing to try for advantages on the descents as well as the climbs. This is an interesting race so far.

 

[icefire]

2006 Vuelta stage to Calar Alto. Anyone still question Anton climbing abilities in GTs?

 

[Carl0880]

An outsider to keep an eye on for a podium would be Marzio Bruseghin. He can sit on the wheels because he has other teammates that will attack constantly, and he his fairly fresh compared to the others (Only raced 6 stages in the Giro, and didn't race the Tour). With that long fairly flat TT, he can make up quite a few minutes on some riders. I think what you saw today you will see from Caisse all Vuelta, just slingshot attacking. They know they may not have one of the top favorites, but you never know when one of the attacks is the one that breaks through and gains some time.

I was hoping that Nibali would have continued with his descending and maybe see if he can get a gap and distance a couple of riders. The difference between his descending skills and most of the other riders is pretty incredible.

Anton looks like a threat for overall. Really most of the other riders you can't really judge outside of Sastre and Rodriguez. Several riders are coming in underraced so they are riding towards top form towards the end of the race, and most of the other contenders also are more of power climbers, not explosive ones.

Sastre was probably caught in the back of the peleton at the beginning of the climb like usual and by the time realized what Katusha was doing, it was too late.

As stated before, Rodriguez might fade to the end after what has been a really long season for him, so Ithink he really needed to gain a few seconds and some bonus seconds today to have a chance at Top 3, get enough of a buffer where he could follow.

 

[Carl0880]

Thanks. I've been whinging lately about how Contador is doing nothing to prepare for next year's Tour while Schleck is doing this great three week training block, but I guess I'll shut up now. I can't see him helping Frank do anything, and I'm not sure how some of these guys are going to deal with Bola del Mundo.

It sure seems like Schlecklet had a magical three or four weeks with not much form before or after.

It's nice to see guys like Nibali and Luisle willing to try for advantages on the descents as well as the climbs. This is an interesting race so far.

Schlecklet had a flat as Katusha was revving up the last climb before the finish. By the time his car got to him, he was probably told to take it easy and relaxed. His role is not right now, but in a few days.

 

[Sophistic]

Its nonsense to predict what will happen on 10-15km climbs based on the results of an 800m uphill "sprint" like this. Today was about being explosive and having a high lactate tolerance, had very little to do with demands of the aerobic engine during a 40 minute effort. Menchov for example is doing quite well considering what his strengths and weaknesses are, also Frank Schleck is probably not gonna be in great anaerobic shape considering he had to rebuild after his crash and didnt race a lot since then but that doesnt have to mean much for the higher mountains.

 

[roundabout]

2006 Vuelta stage to Calar Alto. Anyone still question Anton climbing abilities in GTs?

The stage where Vinokourov and Valverde were looking at each other?

 

[Moondance]

Antón won a serious mountain stage in the 2006 Vuelta to Calar Alto. Antón was 3rd to Mont Ventoux in the 2007 Dauphiné. Antón was 4th to Pla de Beret in 2008, just about holding on to Contador and Valverde when they attacked. Antón has a win on the Alto del Morredero in the Vuelta a Castilla y León this year, where he beat Ezequiel Mosquera, Juan Mauricio Soler and Alberto Contador - three top level climbers. Antón was 6th to La Pandera in the 2006 Vuelta, ahead of his team leader. Antón has a 4th to Lagunas de Neila in Burgos this year, despite working for Samuel Sánchez - and the names he put out the back door include Scarponi, Arroyo and Menchov. Antón has a stage win in the Tour de Romandie in a lumpy stage (though admittedly by default since Valverde originally outsprinted him to the line). His group left Brajkovic's group behind. Antón has a very solid Classics season behind him - 4th in La Flèche Wallonne and 6th in LBL, which is an extra dimension that Brajkovic cannot point at. Antón has a 6th in the first mountain stage of the 2008 Vuelta, in with the top stars of the race after the break came in first in terrible conditions. Antón has a mountain stage win in the Tour de Suisse in 2008, when he came 3rd overall. He was 5th in the stage to Alto de Abantos in the 2007 Vuelta, despite working for Samu, and 8th overall. Antón was 7th in the 2007 Tour de Romandie, and won a lumpy stage. He was 5th to Alto de Navacerrada in the 2007 Vuelta a Castilla y León.

Those are the results that tell you he's a top climber. 2nd to Alpe d'Huez in the Dauphiné is damn good, but does that result really spit all over 3rd to Mont Ventoux AND mountain wins in the Vuelta?

A a Dutchman i must protest. He only 'won' that stage because he shut the door big time on Thomas Dekker; irregular sprinting to the max. Should've been relegated.

On the other hand, chances are that Dekker was as high as a kite on Dynepo specifically during Romandie, so I guess looking back I can't be too frustrated.

 

[The Hitch]

Good stage. Great win bu Anton. I think Purito went too early. Surprised that caise had 4 riders in the top 15. Hopefully they can do something with this.

 

[Barrus]

I'm probably most surprised by Van Garderen today. I really wonder what he can do this race. He'll probably crack end of the second week or in the third week. But really great to see him like this. Also perhaps this will ensure that in the future HTC will not only focus on sprints and perhaps really focus on the GC, with the manner in which Van Garderen is developing

 

[kurtinsc]

Antón won a serious mountain stage in the 2006 Vuelta to Calar Alto. Antón was 3rd to Mont Ventoux in the 2007 Dauphiné. Antón was 4th to Pla de Beret in 2008, just about holding on to Contador and Valverde when they attacked. Antón has a win on the Alto del Morredero in the Vuelta a Castilla y León this year, where he beat Ezequiel Mosquera, Juan Mauricio Soler and Alberto Contador - three top level climbers. Antón was 6th to La Pandera in the 2006 Vuelta, ahead of his team leader. Antón has a 4th to Lagunas de Neila in Burgos this year, despite working for Samuel Sánchez - and the names he put out the back door include Scarponi, Arroyo and Menchov. Antón has a stage win in the Tour de Romandie in a lumpy stage (though admittedly by default since Valverde originally outsprinted him to the line). His group left Brajkovic's group behind. Antón has a very solid Classics season behind him - 4th in La Flèche Wallonne and 6th in LBL, which is an extra dimension that Brajkovic cannot point at. Antón has a 6th in the first mountain stage of the 2008 Vuelta, in with the top stars of the race after the break came in first in terrible conditions. Antón has a mountain stage win in the Tour de Suisse in 2008, when he came 3rd overall. He was 5th in the stage to Alto de Abantos in the 2007 Vuelta, despite working for Samu, and 8th overall. Antón was 7th in the 2007 Tour de Romandie, and won a lumpy stage. He was 5th to Alto de Navacerrada in the 2007 Vuelta a Castilla y León.

Those are the results that tell you he's a top climber. 2nd to Alpe d'Huez in the Dauphiné is damn good, but does that result really spit all over 3rd to Mont Ventoux AND mountain wins in the Vuelta?

Well, I only looked at the last 2 years... I assumed (incorrectly apparently) that his best results would be somewhat recent.


Keep in mind I'm not putting down Anton here... just questioning what shows he's a superior climber, as opposed to just a "very good" climber like Kreuziger and Brajkovic. I'm also not really looking at the short explosive climbs that classic results often indicate. He no doubt has that element, but so do others that don't contend in 10-20km long climbs. Brajkovic also has a 2nd place finish in Lombardia... so it isn't like he's not in that discussion.


Anton's climbs prior to 2009 are definitely impressive though... is there a reason for a bit of a dropoff the last couple of years?

If we go earlier for Brajkovic, he has some additional results as well. In 2006, Brajkovic finished 4th on stage 7 of the Vuelta. Not sure if it was "hilly" or "mountainous"... but the others at the front are guys like Sastre, Valverde, Marchante, Vino and Beltran. He was 2nd on stage 5 that year too... also a vertical stage (won by DiLuca).

Here's the 2006 Vuelta stage Brajkovic got 2nd on:

And here's the one he got 4th on:

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Antón's 2009 was quite a dropoff, mainly because he crashed on the descent to Angliru in the 2008 Vuelta, whilst sitting comfortably in the top 10 and with those ahead of him including some breakaway guys who would drop way behind on that stage. This crash caused some quite severe injuries that cost him almost the entire off-season, and meant that he had to build back to form from scratch whilst racing against people who were a few months ahead of him. He was okay by the time it got to the Tour, but he spent his Tour slaving for Astarloza and his Vuelta slaving for Sánchez, never really getting to showcase himself. If you look at his results through his career, 2006 to September 2008 shows some good progression and puts him in the 'elite climber' ranks, and certainly his 2010 shows that that is his talent level; 2009 was an anomaly borne out of injuries.

 

[nvpacchi]

edit:Libertine beat me to it

 

[kurtinsc]

Antón's 2009 was quite a dropoff, mainly because he crashed on the descent to Angliru in the 2008 Vuelta, whilst sitting comfortably in the top 10 and with those ahead of him including some breakaway guys who would drop way behind on that stage. This crash caused some quite severe injuries that cost him almost the entire off-season, and meant that he had to build back to form from scratch whilst racing against people who were a few months ahead of him. He was okay by the time it got to the Tour, but he spent his Tour slaving for Astarloza and his Vuelta slaving for Sánchez, never really getting to showcase himself. If you look at his results through his career, 2006 to September 2008 shows some good progression and puts him in the 'elite climber' ranks, and certainly his 2010 shows that that is his talent level; 2009 was an anomaly borne out of injuries.

Makes sense.

And while I'll give him the climbing edge over Kreuziger (even though Kreuziger may have superior overall results)... I'm not 100% sure I'd put him over Brajkovic after looking at the results. To be honest though... that's more from me not realizing what Brajkovic had done prior to this season then me putting down Anton's results. In 2006 for example... for all that Anton put nearly 6 minutes into Brajkovic on stage 16... Brajkovic put 1:45 on Anton on stage 5, 2:30 on stage 7 and 2:00 on stage 9.

 

[peloton]

Schlecklet had a flat as Katusha was revving up the last climb before the finish. By the time his car got to him, he was probably told to take it easy and relaxed. His role is not right now, but in a few days.

That's an old Riis tactic, if you can't hang on when the going gets tough, play a mechanical/flat.

I'm puzzled how Andy can be so out of form after the spectacular form he had at the Tour.
Even an off form Andy should be able to stay longer on the climbs?

 

[The Hitch]

Caisse with 4 guys in the top 15 for the stage and GC.

Edit: Make that 5 guys in the top 17 on GC.

they are determined not to lose the team gc this time

 

[Moondance]

That's an old Riis tactic, if you can't hang on when the going gets tough, play a mechanical/flat.

I'm puzzled how Andy can be so out of form after the spectacular form he had at the Tour.
Even an off form Andy should be able to stay longer on the climbs?

Schleck the Younger only ever performs when he has/wants to. He's a master of peaking; I guess you could call him the anti-Cadel in that respect. The only thing that matters to him for the rest of this season is Lombardy, and (barring injury or illness) he'll be right up there, no doubt.

I guess if Schleck the Elder somehow flukes his way into the red/serious contention and needs help in a mountain stage or two, Baby Bro will defintely do a couple of turns on the front for him.... But if Big Bro stays as relatively anonymous as he's been in the last two stages, be prepared not to even catch a glimpse of Baby.

 

[The Hitch]

nibali alone will put at least 2 minutes on frank in the long itt. nibali is a great itt rider.

+1
I was surprised to read someone thought he wouldnt be too far ahead of schleck, purito, mosquera in the tt. Yes he will.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Makes sense.

And while I'll give him the climbing edge over Kreuziger (even though Kreuziger may have superior overall results)... I'm not 100% sure I'd put him over Brajkovic after looking at the results. To be honest though... that's more from me not realizing what Brajkovic had done prior to this season then me putting down Anton's results. In 2006 for example... for all that Anton put nearly 6 minutes into Brajkovic on stage 16... Brajkovic put 1:45 on Anton on stage 5, 2:30 on stage 7 and 2:00 on stage 9.

The problem is, we don't really know what Brajko can do when he's allowed to fend for himself; after his quality results in 2006, he spent early 2007 in very good form (4th Volta a Comunidad Valencia, 5th Tirreno-Adriatico) and had a good period in late April and early May (1st Tour of Georgia - though the field wasn't too strong and he was part of a small group that gained over 20 minutes on the field, then out-TTed them - and 10th Tour de Romandie and 10th Volta a Catalunya), but in the Vuelta he was irrelevant for 9 stages and then dropped out - and was outclimbed to Cerler and Lagos de Covadonga by teammates Devolder and Van Goolen, and so I don't think we can possibly call that a representation of his talents.

In 2008 he didn't do a GT; his year was mostly nondescript, with 3rd in the Deutschlandtour and 7th in the Volta a Catalunya the main saving graces.

In 2009 he focused a season around the Giro; he was 2nd in the Giro del Trentino, including a stint as leader, and 5th to Alpe di Pampeago (behind Niemiec, Basso, Caruso and Simoni), as a warmup. The only stage he came in the top 10 of in the entire Giro was the Sestri Levante ITT; but for much of the first half of the race his chances were sacrificed to help Armstrong climb when Lance was struggling in the early part of the race so soon after his broken collarbone. After that he was 10th in Missouri, mostly down to the ITT as you'd expect, and then the 5th in the Worlds is all he really had for the season.

Jani is a good climber, don't get me wrong. But he's never, not once, finished top 10 in a stage in the last week of a Grand Tour. His breakthrough mountains shows in the Vuelta in 2006 were stages 5 and 7. In the later mountain stages, he was 33rd to Observatorio Calar Alto (the stage Antón won), 112th to Granada and 80th to La Pandera. In the '09 Giro he was 16th to Monte Petrano, 26th to Blockhaus and 22nd to Vesuvio. In the '10 Tour he was 60th to Ax-3-Domaines, 79th to Bagnères-de-Luchon, 40th to Pau and 117th to Tourmalet.

By contrast, Antón's week 3 GT mountain performances are 1st to Observatorio Calar Alto, 26th to Granada and 6th to La Pandera in the '06 Vuelta, 4th to Granada, 11th to Avila and 5th to Alto de Abantos in the '07 Vuelta, 16th to Verbier, 25th to Bourg-St-Maurice, 125th to Le Grand Bornand and 24th to Ventoux in the '09 Tour, and 17th to Velefique, 17th to Sierra Nevada, 117th to La Pandera, 5th to Avila and 25th to La Granja in the '09 Vuelta.

How much of this is down to Jani not getting the chance to work for himself? We may never know. But all I can see is that Igor Antón looks like he has much better recovery than Brajko.

 

[kurtinsc]

In 2008 he didn't do a GT; his year was mostly nondescript, with 3rd in the Deutschlandtour and 7th in the Volta a Catalunya the main saving graces.

Well... that and finishing 2nd at Lombardia.

Jani is a good climber, don't get me wrong. But he's never, not once, finished top 10 in a stage in the last week of a Grand Tour. His breakthrough mountains shows in the Vuelta in 2006 were stages 5 and 7. In the later mountain stages, he was 33rd to Observatorio Calar Alto (the stage Antón won), 112th to Granada and 80th to La Pandera. In the '09 Giro he was 16th to Monte Petrano, 26th to Blockhaus and 22nd to Vesuvio. In the '10 Tour he was 60th to Ax-3-Domaines, 79th to Bagnères-de-Luchon, 40th to Pau and 117th to Tourmalet.

By contrast, Antón's week 3 GT mountain performances are 1st to Observatorio Calar Alto, 26th to Granada and 6th to La Pandera in the '06 Vuelta, 4th to Granada, 11th to Avila and 5th to Alto de Abantos in the '07 Vuelta, 16th to Verbier, 25th to Bourg-St-Maurice, 125th to Le Grand Bornand and 24th to Ventoux in the '09 Tour, and 17th to Velefique, 17th to Sierra Nevada, 117th to La Pandera, 5th to Avila and 25th to La Granja in the '09 Vuelta.

How much of this is down to Jani not getting the chance to work for himself? We may never know. But all I can see is that Igor Antón looks like he has much better recovery than Brajko.

Okay... I'll buy the bit about recovery. I didn't think that was really the topic though. Recovery does matter in a 3 week tour... but so does time trialing. Neither really says who is the best climber though, does it?

It doesn't really matter in the end... I'm glad to have a chance to see what Anton does as his team's leader in a GT... and hopefully I'll get a chance to see what Brajkovic can do as a team leader in a GT next year.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well... that and finishing 2nd at Lombardia.

But you already told me to take out the one-day results since they're a different matter. Otherwise I'd have repeated my mention of Antón's Classics season this year.

Okay... I'll buy the bit about recovery. I didn't think that was really the topic though. Recovery does matter in a 3 week tour... but so does time trialing. Neither really says who is the best climber though, does it?

It doesn't really matter in the end... I'm glad to have a chance to see what Anton does as his team's leader in a GT... and hopefully I'll get a chance to see what Brajkovic can do as a team leader in a GT next year.

The thing is, Brajkovic has some very good results over one-week races. So does Antón. But Brajkovic is lacking the results at the business end of a GT, while Antón is not. Hence why some are willing to say that they think Antón is an élite climber, but not yet give that title to Brajkovic. It's all very well climbing like Contador in the first set of mountains, but if you lose 5 minutes a day in the second you'll never win a GT; damn, last year Jakob Fuglsang was climbing like a superstar in the Dauphiné, but he was well out of it in the Vuelta. Iban Mayo would always look like a star in the Dauphiné, but never follow that up in the Tour. Brajko could be another Mayo, or it could be that he just hasn't had the chances to work for himself. Whatever happens, at the moment he has comparable results to Antón's (probably a bit better thanks to his TT skills and Dauphiné win) over one week, but Antón's results over 3 weeks are better.

 

[Winterfold]

That was the most mental and exciting finish to a GT stage I have seen this year, and maybe for several more.

I could not believe how much attacking there was and hard they went on those loony gradients and how deep Gilbert went to keep the overall.

The last km is absolutely bonkers...

Bravo!!!!

 

[theyoungest]

+1
I was surprised to read someone thought he wouldnt be too far ahead of schleck, purito, mosquera in the tt. Yes he will.

That was me. And no I don't think he will take too much time on Fränk Schleck in a 45 k TT. I actually think he'd take more time if it were 20 k. The longer the TT, the worse Nibali does (not exactly bad, just not great).

 

[Escarabajo]

That's an old Riis tactic, if you can't hang on when the going gets tough, play a mechanical/flat.

I'm puzzled how Andy can be so out of form after the spectacular form he had at the Tour.
Even an off form Andy should be able to stay longer on the climbs?

Unless he is not willing to ride hard, or he is saving himself for later when they might need him. Just shooting ideas.