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Vuelta a España - Stage 4 Málaga - Valdepeñas de Jaén 183.8km

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ttrider

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There wont be a brake at the end because Katusha and Euskatel will chase it because this has to be an awesome chance for either anton or rodriguez, im thinking rodriguez
 
Sep 21, 2009
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I know it's still too early, but if the man who looks stronger is ahead in the GC there is no incentive for other teams to help chasing breakaways
 

Barrus

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roundabout said:
They can chase tomorrow and then let all the non-threating breaks go until stages 8 and 9 and go for more time bonuses there.'

Maybe Lotto will lend a hand tomorrow.

The problem however is, how can you determine what is a non-threatening break, this early in the race. Look for example to Arroyo in the last giro, the idea at first was that it was a non-threatening break (based on incorrect and incomplete info) and it took a long time for him to lose the pink. I know that that stage was an anomaly, but still, you never know the outcome in advance
 
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Barrus said:
The problem however is, how can you determine what is a non-threatening break, this early in the race. Look for example to Arroyo in the last giro, the idea at first was that it was a non-threatening break (based on incorrect and incomplete info) and it took a long time for him to lose the pink. I know that that stage was an anomaly, but still, you never know the outcome in advance

You're underestimating the tactical genius of Vino. He was the pink jersey that day. And he decided not to chase because he knew he wasn't going to win the Giro so the effort wasn't worth. Vino was right that day in his assessment of the situation. Other contenders didn't want to take responsibility. BMC wasn't strong enough to do the job for Evans. Leakygas could have done it, but they didn't want to. They paid their mistake with extra work for the rest of the race.
 

Barrus

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DAOTEC said:
@Barrus

GC after today:

20 KASHECHKIN, Andrey LAM + 47'' :eek:

Yes, I like that guy. I hope he gets in such a "non-threatening" break and gets 30 minutes. Oh how I dream :p

@ icefire, it was just one of the more recent and more apt examples, just used to strengthen my argument, Arroyo could have been seen as non-threatening at that point, as were many others in that break, in retrospect, they were not. (that this was due to a stupid decision of others, is not of real relevance)
 
Arroyo would NOT be seen as non-threatening - he had been 10th in the Giro twice before (2007 and 2009) and that break also included Carlos Sastre, Bradley Wiggins and Xavier Tondó (who had been in stunning form from March and who we know can climb) so there is no way that break was "allowed to go". It was confusion, chaos and miscommunication that allowed for that.

But I do agree with the "don't let anyone from Caisse get the lead" - they will be loath to let it go!

Anybody remember 2003? When Isidro Nozal led from stage 4 all the way to the final TT, when Heras took over from him?
 
Sep 21, 2009
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My concern with non-threatening breakaways is not so much any possible misjudgement on the side of the big guns as it happened in the Tour 2006 or the Giro 2010.

I'm worried to see a repetition of last year Vuelta where everyone played the game of not chasing for fear of Valverde taking the time bonus at the finish. This is a symptom of conservative (boring) racing, where everything is left to late attacks in the last km of MTFs.
 
DAOTEC said:
@Barrus

GC after today:

20 KASHECHKIN, Andrey LAM + 47'' :eek:

he's one of my favourite riders so guys what do you think?can he make the top 10,maybe the top 5?i even put some money on him for winning overall,yeah call me crazy.:p
actually,wasn't he today at the front with another lampre guy on puerto del leon?he looked pretty smooth.
 

Barrus

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jens_attacks said:
he's one of my favourite riders so guys what do you think?can he make the top 10,maybe the top 5?i even put some money on him for winning overall,yeah call me crazy.:p
actually,wasn't he today at the front with another lampre guy on puerto del leon?he looked pretty smooth.

What were the odds? :p

But where he'll end up, I have no idea, this is his first three week tour in quite a while, right? So, the main question is his consistency. But I think if he is reasonable consistent he'll make top 20 (i hope;))
 
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jens_attacks said:
he's one of my favourite riders so guys what do you think?can he make the top 10,maybe the top 5?i even put some money on him for winning overall,yeah call me crazy.:p
actually,wasn't he today at the front with another lampre guy on puerto del leon?he looked pretty smooth.

If he makes the top5 then we should know he will be banned again soon.
 
Scirea said:
So what are the exact details of the last climb? The 100m with 23% is true?

Profile of last km suggests that

http://www.lavuelta.com/10/en/recorrido/index.html?e=3

I dont think a breakaway will stay away and take red. Surely Lotto will be keen to keep the lead as long as possible because they dont have a GC guy to look after (will be interesting to see how Peraud goes though)? If the breakaway is full of people a long way down then Lotto might decide not to bring the break back in case Rodriguez then wins and takes the lead with the time bonus. We could end up seeing Lotto lead for quite a lot of the day before Katusha take over towards the end to try and set up Rod for the stage and possible win. Then again maybe Gilbert will fancy his chances again so Lotto will chase. Rod for the win, Gilbert to just keep red with the time bonus from second or third.
 
Scirea said:
So what are the exact details of the last climb? The 100m with 23% is true?

Profile of last km suggests that

http://www.lavuelta.com/10/en/recorrido/index.html?e=3

I dont think a breakaway will stay away and take red. Surely Lotto will be keen to keep the lead as long as possible because they dont have a GC guy to look after (will be interesting to see how Peraud goes though)? If the breakaway is full of people a long way down then Lotto might decide not to bring the break back in case Rodriguez then wins and takes the lead with the time bonus. We could end up seeing Lotto lead for quite a lot of the day before Katusha take over towards the end to try and set up Rod for the stage and possible win. Then again maybe Gilbert will fancy his chances again so Lotto will chase. Rod for the win, Gilbert to just keep red with the time bonus from second or third.
 
Sep 21, 2009
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I had forgotten something. Leakygas has been setting the pace today during the climb to Puerto del León just as they did in last year Vuelta several times for nothing. Let's hope they insist with that tactic even if Nibali doesn't improve Basso's performance last year.
 
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Seems like Katusha is really serious, Kolobnev wrote this: "Great team work from the begin till the end. Happy for that. Tomorrow we'll help Joaquin to get in RED!"
 
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icefire said:
You're underestimating the tactical genius of Vino. He was the pink jersey that day. And he decided not to chase because he knew he wasn't going to win the Giro so the effort wasn't worth. Vino was right that day in his assessment of the situation. Other contenders didn't want to take responsibility. BMC wasn't strong enough to do the job for Evans. Leakygas could have done it, but they didn't want to. They paid their mistake with extra work for the rest of the race.

You have no idea how hard it must be for Vino to do the opposite of attacking. He must have been near tears that day.
 
Sep 21, 2009
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Jukebox said:
You have no idea how hard it must be for Vino to do the opposite of attacking. He must have been near tears that day.

It was so hard that he did it again after the Mortirolo when Arroyo asked to wait for Evans, Sastre & Co. :p

The man knows when to attack and when to have a rest because attacking is a waste of time and effort.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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this finish has rodriguez's name written over it...it's a bit higher elevation and should be cooler fitting his light frame.
 

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