I also find it hard to get a read on this stage. We do not often see such a hard MTF this early.
I am unsure about the form of more than a couple GC riders:
-Roglic looks really good, but I would like to see him in one hard mountain stage just to be sure that he has fully recovered
- Bernal has had Covid, crashed hard and did not look at his best in Burgus. I consider him to be the rider with the most to lose today. He not only cannot afford to lose more than a few seconds to Roglic, he also has to disperse doubts that other at Ineos are in better position to take leadership
-Carapaz: probably the favorite with the most wear and tear during the last few months. Conventional wisdom would suggest that he will probably fade by week 3. If he is already off at this point in the GT than he will probably have to concede leadership early
-Yates: Apart from Martinez looked like the Ineos rider most affected by the crash at Burgus. I am not sure what the expectations are from him at Ineos, but I think without a strong showing today that he might be the first that has to sacrifice his GC hopes.
About the race: With Roglic having such a firm grip on the ITT and the characteristics of the climb, it is hard for me to imagine that the favorites keep their feet still until the last 1-2 km. Landa, MAL and Carapaz will wait for the right moment and on a hard-to-control climb like this, that moment should arise.
I also expect 2-3 big GC riders to ship quiete a significant amount of time (1+ minutes) and I suspect that one of these guys will unfortunately be Bernal, who just looks off to me.
I am unsure about the form of more than a couple GC riders:
-Roglic looks really good, but I would like to see him in one hard mountain stage just to be sure that he has fully recovered
- Bernal has had Covid, crashed hard and did not look at his best in Burgus. I consider him to be the rider with the most to lose today. He not only cannot afford to lose more than a few seconds to Roglic, he also has to disperse doubts that other at Ineos are in better position to take leadership
-Carapaz: probably the favorite with the most wear and tear during the last few months. Conventional wisdom would suggest that he will probably fade by week 3. If he is already off at this point in the GT than he will probably have to concede leadership early
-Yates: Apart from Martinez looked like the Ineos rider most affected by the crash at Burgus. I am not sure what the expectations are from him at Ineos, but I think without a strong showing today that he might be the first that has to sacrifice his GC hopes.
About the race: With Roglic having such a firm grip on the ITT and the characteristics of the climb, it is hard for me to imagine that the favorites keep their feet still until the last 1-2 km. Landa, MAL and Carapaz will wait for the right moment and on a hard-to-control climb like this, that moment should arise.
I also expect 2-3 big GC riders to ship quiete a significant amount of time (1+ minutes) and I suspect that one of these guys will unfortunately be Bernal, who just looks off to me.
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