Vuelta a España 2022: Pre-race discussion/hype tread

[Libertine Seguros]

I heard he once won a Grand Tour.

Sure, but Damiano Cunego winning the Giro in 2004 didn't make him 'in general' stronger than some of the older hands who hadn't, like Sastre or Evans, come 2008-9, or Fabio Aru in around 2018-19 relative to older riders like Thomas - and again this is dealing in comparisons between a GT winner and (at the time) non-GT winners, not somebody who has won multiple three week races.

I debate that the 2022 version of Geogeghan Hart has the ability to be stronger than the 2022 version of Rogla (but of course, to finish first, first you have to finish) - but even if we take as a starting assumption that he has, the 'in general' is highly exaggerated when Tao (unlike Hindley) has shown little to suggest that he can replicate that 2020 Giro yet, with his best results since then being a couple of low end top 10s in the Dauphiné. And while you can fairly argue that he wasn't leading those races (although he was Ineos' best finisher in this year's Dauphiné, Porte won GC and Thomas was on the podium in 2021), the fact that he wasn't leading those races speaks enough volumes relative to Rogla, who has led or co-led everything he's entered in that timeframe and won three Vueltas, Paris-Nice, the Dauphiné and Itzulia in that same period, and has beaten Tao in pretty much every head to head they've had in that time frame, unless he's crashed out or withdrawn. Which is why it's an absolutely absurd reach to say that Tao is in general stronger than Rogla at this point in time.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I heard he once won a Grand Tour.

Honestly, I am a bit surprised that Axelgaard didn't put him among his top 15, especially considering what he wrote about Hindley and the craziness of being able to surprise twice. Eh, hello?

I rate Carlos Rodriguez and Sivakov higher, so he's 4th in the hierarchy, and I have always thought he was overrated, even before he won. I think I have been on the record multiple times on this forum stating he would never win a GT, and not even come close, and that was obviously dead-wrong, but I have yet to see him perform close to that of the Giro 2020 pre and post that race. Good rider, but yeah, Im not a believer.

 

[Red Rick]

I rate Carlos Rodriguez and Sivakov higher, so he's 4th in the hierarchy, and I have always thought he was overrated, even before he won. I think I have been on the record multiple times on this forum stating he would never win a GT, and not even come close, and that was obviously dead-wrong, but I have yet to see him perform close to that of the Giro 2020 pre and post that race. Good rider, but yeah, Im not a believer.

2020 Giro was a glitch in the matrix.

I don't really rate Sivakov super high, I'd take the 2019 Giro as a baseline for him. Seems mostly like an early bloomer. I really hope to see C-Rod fly free

 

[tobydawq]

Sure, but Damiano Cunego winning the Giro in 2004 didn't make him 'in general' stronger than some of the older hands who hadn't, like Sastre or Evans, come 2008-9, or Fabio Aru in around 2018-19 relative to older riders like Thomas - and again this is dealing in comparisons between a GT winner and (at the time) non-GT winners, not somebody who has won multiple three week races.

I debate that the 2022 version of Geogeghan Hart has the ability to be stronger than the 2022 version of Rogla (but of course, to finish first, first you have to finish) - but even if we take as a starting assumption that he has, the 'in general' is highly exaggerated when Tao (unlike Hindley) has shown little to suggest that he can replicate that 2020 Giro yet, with his best results since then being a couple of low end top 10s in the Dauphiné. And while you can fairly argue that he wasn't leading those races (although he was Ineos' best finisher in this year's Dauphiné, Porte won GC and Thomas was on the podium in 2021), the fact that he wasn't leading those races speaks enough volumes relative to Rogla, who has led or co-led everything he's entered in that timeframe and won three Vueltas, Paris-Nice, the Dauphiné and Itzulia in that same period, and has beaten Tao in pretty much every head to head they've had in that time frame, unless he's crashed out or withdrawn. Which is why it's an absolutely absurd reach to say that Tao is in general stronger than Rogla at this point in time.

Of course, I absolutely agree, nobody is stronger than Roglic apart from probably Pogacar and Vingegaard.

I was of course not pushing an agenda that he should be stronger than Roglic (but I do see how my post reads that way). I actually just wanted to show that he seemed a little underestimated apart from by Jens Voigt, apparently.

 

[RedheadDane]

Just realised that De Tier was allowed to leave Denmark and go replace the bennett-injured Riesebek.

 

[Billie]

Just realised that De Tier was allowed to leave Denmark and go replace the bennett-injured Riesebek.

He's last on GC but he's already on day 5 of his GT.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Primoz having seemingly insurmountable advantage over his rivals means we should hope for an exciting battle for the 2nd.

 

[houtdffan]

primoz needs to stay healthy for 3 weeks first before we go crowning him

 

[CyclistAbi]

Lucky circumstances or not Tao Geoghegan Hart is a Giro winner. As for him beating Rogla at this Vuelta edition. Anything is possible but realistically the very first obstacle would be Carapaz. Hence if some of the favorites would crash out then maybe. Otherwise i don't see it.

As for Rogla i am rather glad that he has set things straight on stage 1. As i am sure that some people out there actually believed he is not an elite anymore.

 

[tobydawq]

I'm a little late to the party but I simply cannot not comment on this. I don't know exactly what it is but something about an event like the Vuelta acting line it's the football world cup with it's own song and all is just so funny to me.

Like "yeah Vuelta, all the kids are gonna sing this song while they are constantly partying for the three biggest weeks of the year. This is all what those cool young TokTikers are gonna talk about for the next month"

Maybe I have grown too cynical but to me this video feels like they are shooting at and are missing their target audience by a distance longer than the TT milage Evenepoel would need to ever win a GT.

On a similar note I also think that in 20 years this video will be posted somewhere on the internet and everyone will laugh their asses off about just how "20's" it is.

According to The Cycling Podcast, the Vuelta's tradition of an official song began in the late 1970s and has continued ever since.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yes, everything can happen and Tao beats Roglic, but only if the ladder crashes or still is injured. Its not even close otherwise.