Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 13: Lugo - Puerto de Ancares, 175.6k

[Krzysztof_O]

A classic 500 m from the line stomp should be enough to reduce O'Connor's advantage by half, right?

 

[search]

And then, finally, it's time for Ancares itself. Although nowhere near as hard from the Leonese side as from the HC Galician one seen in 2014, 5.3k at 11.9% is nothing to be sneezed at.

They only did the hardest side of Ancares in 2014 no?

I actually think they won't take off from near the bottom this time, just a hard pace until 2.5 or 2km to go.

so the Vuelta has not used this side before, correct?! Only race I can find is the Vuelta a Leon.

2017 Vuelta a Leon

The 4th Stage of 2017 Vuelta Ciclista a Leon was won by Oscar Cabedo.

firstcycling.com

2019 Vuelta a Leon

The 3rd Stage of 2019 Vuelta Ciclista a Leon was won by Alessandro Fancellu of Kometa U23.

firstcycling.com

Edit: Fancellu did the climb (final 5.5k) in around 19:30, so it's going to be a pretty short effort, despite the gradients.

Edit 2: I made a mistake there, Fancellu must have had an advantage before the climb already. His climbing time actually was 23 minutes

 

[Berniece]

Stomp in last 2km or all out attack? Some proper GC action?

All out attack in the last 5km's. Only reason why I see Roglic wait is if he's in doubt about his back on such gradients for 5km's straight. But then I would expect Mas to still attack.

 

[The Barb]

Break takes the stage. RedBull will want an easy pace before the last 5 km, Ag2r are happy to see the bonus seconds gone. Movistar too weak to do ***.

I’m not sure about Movistar being too weak. It’s not a multiple mountain stage and them having a full team, they really should be able to control it.

And they should. They have seemingly the strongest climber in the race, who needs to take time on BOC and Roglic. If Movistar doesn’t control it then that’s a major cop out.

I think Movistar will wait to see if Bora controls it and, if not, they will.

My rough, over simplified maths for the stage is:

70% chance of GC day.
If it’s a GC day, 50% chance Mas wins.
Therefore, 35% chance Mas wins.
Therefore, a good bet at anything more than $3.

 

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I’m not sure about Movistar being too weak. It’s not a multiple mountain stage and them having a full team, they really should be able to control it.

Rubio at least is sick (covid apparently, but unconfirmed), and yesterday said "there's a virus going around". Which probably also explains why Mas started wearing a mask a couple of days ago.

Maybe things are better already, but I don't think there's much to expect from Movistar.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Pedro Delgado (64) reconnoiters the stage:

 

[The Barb]

Rubio at least is sick (covid apparently, but unconfirmed), and yesterday said "there's a virus going around". Which probably also explains why Mas started wearing a mask a couple of days ago.

Maybe things are better already, but I don't think there's much to expect from Movistar.

That’s good information, thanks indeed.

 

[ice&fire]

Pedro Delgado (64) reconnoiters the stage:

Lol at 5min, he can't go unrecognised himself.

 

[Miha81]

All out attack in the last 5km's. Only reason why I see Roglic wait is if he's in doubt about his back on such gradients for 5km's straight. But then I would expect Mas to still attack.

I hope so. Just crave some proper GC action

 

[Lequack]

Profile

 

[Peyroteo94]

Very important stage to O'Connor. He must show he can follow Roglic and Mas, if not he will eventually lose the jersey late in the Vuelta.

 

[yaco]

Movistar has to control the stage for Mas. They have a good enough team to control for at least the first 3/4 of the stage. Controlling does not necessarily mean bringing the break back, but, ensuring a solid tempo for the stage, to see, if Maas, can make a differcne at the end.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Rubio at least is sick (covid apparently, but unconfirmed), and yesterday said "there's a virus going around". Which probably also explains why Mas started wearing a mask a couple of days ago.

Maybe things are better already, but I don't think there's much to expect from Movistar.

Hagos Berhe is out with illness as well

https://twitter.com/x/status/1829442758265725056

View: https://x.com/GreenEDGEteam/status/1829442758265725056

 

[topcat]

Are we expecting big gaps today? One or more of the top 10 will drop out of contention today. It won't be Mas.

 

[Peyroteo94]

So this should be like 18 minutes for the climb?

I think 19-20 minutes is more realistic. 5 km at 12% takes something like 15-16 minutes to do it

 

[Lequack]

Probably no used to giving out autographs

https://twitter.com/x/status/1829465660172202355

View: https://x.com/EqKernPharma/status/1829465660172202355

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I think 19-20 minutes is more realistic. 5 km at 12% takes something like 15-16 minutes to do it

Well, we‘re only calculating for the final 5 kms here because they‘re the only real climbing parts. Doing those in 15 minutes would mean a 2400 VAM which is super-impossible

 

[Ilmaestro99]

This is absolutely prime Roglic territory today. A 20 minute climb at very steep gradients, in northern Spain, against mas, Landa and some u23 guys. If he doesn't put significant time to o'conner on this finish, it's time to sign for israel premer tech and focus on tour down under.

 

[Tim Cahill]

• Soler Marc (UAE Team Emirates) in group 1
  
  
  
• 171
  2m
  Attack by 15 riders ...

 

[topcat]

Vino and some lesser riders on the attack.

 

[Landeirovic]

26 riders in break. Hard for control.

 

[search]

looks like it'll be another day for the break. ~25 guys up there with lots of UAE and IPT, no GC danger at all.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

José Félix Parra FTW!!!

 

[Lequack]

Great to see Wout and Groves going for the mountains points.

 

[Potomac]

José Félix Parra FTW!!!

He is the best placed rider at +30', so we can conclude the break will be given 28 minutes