Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 13: Lugo - Puerto de Ancares, 175.6k

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Jul 7, 2013
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A classic 500 m from the line stomp should be enough to reduce O'Connor's advantage by half, right?
 
Aug 29, 2009
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And then, finally, it's time for Ancares itself. Although nowhere near as hard from the Leonese side as from the HC Galician one seen in 2014, 5.3k at 11.9% is nothing to be sneezed at.
They only did the hardest side of Ancares in 2014 no?

I actually think they won't take off from near the bottom this time, just a hard pace until 2.5 or 2km to go.
so the Vuelta has not used this side before, correct?! Only race I can find is the Vuelta a Leon.


Edit: Fancellu did the climb (final 5.5k) in around 19:30, so it's going to be a pretty short effort, despite the gradients.

Edit 2: I made a mistake there, Fancellu must have had an advantage before the climb already. His climbing time actually was 23 minutes
 
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Apr 14, 2009
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Break takes the stage. RedBull will want an easy pace before the last 5 km, Ag2r are happy to see the bonus seconds gone. Movistar too weak to do ***.

I’m not sure about Movistar being too weak. It’s not a multiple mountain stage and them having a full team, they really should be able to control it.

And they should. They have seemingly the strongest climber in the race, who needs to take time on BOC and Roglic. If Movistar doesn’t control it then that’s a major cop out.

I think Movistar will wait to see if Bora controls it and, if not, they will.

My rough, over simplified maths for the stage is:

70% chance of GC day.
If it’s a GC day, 50% chance Mas wins.
Therefore, 35% chance Mas wins.
Therefore, a good bet at anything more than $3.
 
Aug 29, 2009
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I’m not sure about Movistar being too weak. It’s not a multiple mountain stage and them having a full team, they really should be able to control it.
Rubio at least is sick (covid apparently, but unconfirmed), and yesterday said "there's a virus going around". Which probably also explains why Mas started wearing a mask a couple of days ago.

Maybe things are better already, but I don't think there's much to expect from Movistar.
 
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Apr 14, 2009
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Rubio at least is sick (covid apparently, but unconfirmed), and yesterday said "there's a virus going around". Which probably also explains why Mas started wearing a mask a couple of days ago.

Maybe things are better already, but I don't think there's much to expect from Movistar.
That’s good information, thanks indeed.
 
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Jul 10, 2014
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Profile

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Mar 20, 2022
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Very important stage to O'Connor. He must show he can follow Roglic and Mas, if not he will eventually lose the jersey late in the Vuelta.
 
Jun 20, 2015
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Movistar has to control the stage for Mas. They have a good enough team to control for at least the first 3/4 of the stage. Controlling does not necessarily mean bringing the break back, but, ensuring a solid tempo for the stage, to see, if Maas, can make a differcne at the end.
 
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May 14, 2009
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Jul 4, 2016
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Are we expecting big gaps today? One or more of the top 10 will drop out of contention today. It won't be Mas.
 
Jun 30, 2022
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I think 19-20 minutes is more realistic. 5 km at 12% takes something like 15-16 minutes to do it
Well, we‘re only calculating for the final 5 kms here because they‘re the only real climbing parts. Doing those in 15 minutes would mean a 2400 VAM which is super-impossible
 
Apr 13, 2021
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This is absolutely prime Roglic territory today. A 20 minute climb at very steep gradients, in northern Spain, against mas, Landa and some u23 guys. If he doesn't put significant time to o'conner on this finish, it's time to sign for israel premer tech and focus on tour down under.
 
Aug 29, 2009
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looks like it'll be another day for the break. ~25 guys up there with lots of UAE and IPT, no GC danger at all.
 
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