Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 18: Vitoria-Gasteiz - Maeztu, 179.3k

[proffate]

It would probably not have made much difference given the descent, but they could have had a bit larger gap to OConnor at the top of the Cat 1. Carapaz, Roglic, Mas, Gaudu (and maybe 1 other) were starting to create the gap. At the moment when elastic started to stretch before briefly breaking, both Lipowitz and another FDJ rider come around The red jersey, but close enough to him to give a brief draft and then shortening the distance to the back of the GC group. I’m surprised in those situations that those chasing riders (usually the top doms) don’t swing wider around the key guy getting dropped. Or wait until the gap gets bigger then attack a bit later. I understand the intensity of the wattage they are putting out at that point might make it hard to judge what is the best tactic and the impulse would simply be try stay with the group that has their leader.
Nothing dramatic about this—just wondering.

Belgian kermesse riders would not make this mistake.

 

[Sciatic]

Hard stage, Mas looking fine, the win is still somewhat realistic. Two really hard MTFs right up his alley, although tomorrow is a very easy day.

Needs at least 2 minutes though..

Finishing climb on 8.5 km @ 9% is easy? While the peloton might let the break go and cruise for awhile, I would expect EF, FDJ, and perhaps even Bora to drive it very hard to the base of that climb to set up attacks.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Finishing climb on 8.5 km @ 9% is easy? While the peloton might let the break go and cruise for awhile, I would expect EF, FDJ, and perhaps even Bora to drive it very hard to the base of that climb to set up attacks.

Of course not, you need to read between the lines a bit better. The overall day is very easy and not one that should suit Enric the most, but the climb itself is of course very hard.

 

[Sciatic]

Of course not, you need to read between the lines a bit better. The overall day is very easy and not one that should suit Enric the most, but the climb itself is of course very hard.

Gotcha

 

[proffate]

Finishing climb on 8.5 km @ 9% is easy? While the peloton might let the break go and cruise for awhile, I would expect EF, FDJ, and perhaps even Bora to drive it very hard to the base of that climb to set up attacks.

I think Saturday's stage will discourage anyone from burning matches they don't have to tomorrow. Roglic may try to take time at the finish tomorrow because the climb suits him, but he should rest his team as much as possible.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

"Hey, Jay."
"Yeah, Marc?"
"I want your jersey!"

KOM:

1	2	▲1	SOLER Marc	UAE Team Emirates	57
2	1	▼1	VINE Jay	UAE Team Emirates	56

True teammates sharing the jersey like that. lol

 

[Lequack]

Kern Pharma domination was not on my list for this Vuelta. But I'm excited for it.

 

[proffate]

Kern Pharma domination was not on my list for this Vuelta. But I'm excited for it.

There have been a lot of chances for breakaway riders which is a bit odd because Roglic could have been in the lead by now via bonifications if Bora controlled more.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Kern Pharma domination was not on my list for this Vuelta. But I'm excited for it.

Well, it's one for the money two for the show
Three to get ready now go, cat, go
But don't you step on my blue suede shoes

 

[nightowl]

There have been a lot of chances for breakaway riders which is a bit odd because Roglic could have been in the lead by now via bonifications if Bora controlled more.

I think Bora realized 1) they didn’t have the team to control properly after stage 6 and 2) that Roglic was vulnerable on stages that were raced hard after stage 9 so decided to just let breaks go.

 

[Sciatic]

I think Saturday's stage will discourage anyone from burning matches they don't have to tomorrow. Roglic may try to take time at the finish tomorrow because the climb suits him, but he should rest his team as much as possible.

That’s possible, yes. But if Mas and Carapaz (and perhaps Gaudu) have the legs I think they will need to take time on both of those stages—they still have a lot of time to make up, and can’t count on gaining time in the ITT.
I also think if (if) Roglic wants more of a buffer before the TT, tomorrow would be the better day to try to get bonuses points. I think Sat’s stage will be too hard to control and bonus seconds go to the break.

 

[Rackham]

That’s possible, yes. But if Mas and Carapaz (and perhaps Gaudu) have the legs I think they will need to take time on both of those stages—they still have a lot of time to make up, and can’t count on gaining time in the ITT.
I also think if (if) Roglic wants more of a buffer before the TT, tomorrow would be the better day to try to get bonuses points. I think Sat’s stage will be too hard to control and bonus seconds go to the break.

Mas & Carapaz will both attack on Moncalvillo tomorrow. Rog will take red just by following their wheels.

I expect O'Connor to ship plenty of time tomorrow & Saturday as well. Bonus seconds won't be necessary for Rog.

 

[proffate]

That’s possible, yes. But if Mas and Carapaz (and perhaps Gaudu) have the legs I think they will need to take time on both of those stages—they still have a lot of time to make up, and can’t count on gaining time in the ITT.
I also think if (if) Roglic wants more of a buffer before the TT, tomorrow would be the better day to try to get bonuses points. I think Sat’s stage will be too hard to control and bonus seconds go to the break.

I just don't see a way that Mas or Carapaz gain time on Roglic tomorrow, so even trying just ends up wasting energy, as the stage is easily controlled until the final climb. Attacking is more energetically demanding than defending so they're putting themselves at a disadvantage for Saturday. OK, if they decide they're just trying to dislodge O'Connor then they may ride hard both days.

 

[Lievro]

Who was the most combative?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Mas & Carapaz will both attack on Moncalvillo tomorrow. Rog will take red just by following their wheels.

I expect O'Connor to ship plenty of time tomorrow & Saturday as well. Bonus seconds won't be necessary for Rog.

Yeah, it's likely. Following Mas & Carapaz should be Rogla's main goal. If O'Connor suddenly becomes stronger than before then Rogla should try attacking OFC.

 

[ice&fire]

Who was the most combative?

Soler

 

[Rackham]

I just don't see a way that Mas or Carapaz gain time on Roglic tomorrow, so even trying just ends up wasting energy, as the stage is easily controlled until the final climb. Attacking is more energetically demanding than defending so they're putting themselves at a disadvantage for Saturday. OK, if they decide they're just trying to dislodge O'Connor then they may ride hard both days.

Frankly I'm actually looking at Mas & Carapaz with a huge question mark regarding their form level at the end of this Vuelta. I mean I know the popular opinion on social media right now is Mas is the best climber in the race and he'll smash Saturday's stage 20 but IMO there's also the possibility Mas, Carapaz & Landa are beginning to feel the Tour in their legs.

In that respect Rog could be the freshest this weekend out of all the contenders IMO.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Casper Pedersen: "We wanted to give Catta a chance for the stage win because he always does such a good job for the team".
Spoken like a true teammate.

I did maybe say somethings in the heat of the moment which I shouldn't . I like Cattaneo a lot. If I (or the team) knew Landa was so bad that he can barely follow wheels........

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Great win again by Pharma. Making some of these bigger teams look pathetic.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Frankly I'm actually looking at Mas & Carapaz with a huge question mark regarding their form level at the end of this Vuelta. I mean I know the popular opinion on social media right now is Mas is the best climber in the race and he'll smash Saturday's stage 20 but IMO there's also the possibility Mas, Carapaz & Landa are beginning to feel the Tour in their legs.

In that respect Rog could be the freshest this weekend out of all the contenders IMO.

I completely forgot that Mas even did the Tour! He was absolutely smashed there by Teddy and co. But he always does Tour + Vuelta double and is stronger in the latter so he should be fine this weekend.

 

[bNator]

Frankly I'm actually looking at Mas & Carapaz with a huge question mark regarding their form level at the end of this Vuelta. I mean I know the popular opinion on social media right now is Mas is the best climber in the race and he'll smash Saturday's stage 20 but IMO there's also the possibility Mas, Carapaz & Landa are beginning to feel the Tour in their legs.

In that respect Rog could be the freshest this weekend out of all the contenders IMO.

Well you do have pretty good track record when it comes to predicting this Vuelta. So to avoid jinxing it, I’ll keep thinking you’re wrong😉

 

[Cagalitroso]

Kern Pharma domination was not on my list for this Vuelta. But I'm excited for it.

The blue shoes, the jersey, everything is perfect here [[mod edited]]

 

[Rackham]

I completely forgot that Mas even did the Tour! He was absolutely smashed there by Teddy and co. But he always does Tour + Vuelta double and is stronger in the latter so he should be fine this weekend.

Mas was very strong in the third week of the Tour. He had a battle in the breakaway on stage 20 with Carapaz before Vinge & Pog ate both of them on the final climb.

So who knows but I didn't expect Landa to crack today either (& he was obviously all-in in the Tour).

 

[Bolder]

Mas & Carapaz will both attack on Moncalvillo tomorrow. Rog will take red just by following their wheels.

I expect O'Connor to ship plenty of time tomorrow & Saturday as well. Bonus seconds won't be necessary for Rog.

Agreed. Roglic should not expend any extra energy. Partly because I'm not convinced he's in super condition. He just needs to be even with Mas and to a lesser extent Carapaz.

 

[Oldermanish]

Mas & Carapaz will both attack on Moncalvillo tomorrow. Rog will take red just by following their wheels.

I expect O'Connor to ship plenty of time tomorrow & Saturday as well. Bonus seconds won't be necessary for Rog.

Agree to above.

This is a discussion after yesterday's stage and not projecting that Landa would suffer in the process:

I think to a degree it is understandable from Roglic and Bora... with the stages left it would be a shock if Primoz did not put 2-3 minutes into him minimum.

But for Carapaz and Mas? They likely both finish on the podium... but O'Connor is not a bad ITT'er and if I were them I would be starting to get a bit antsy.

They have basically 2 Mountain stages left and they have "only" been putting maybe ~1 minute into him on the mountain stages in the last week or so.

It would not be a total shock for O'Connor to come 3rd only because Carapaz and Mas are not respecting him enough.

Now, it shouldnt happen, but could.
Click to expand...

Good observation but EF has never been shy about aggression and Movistar needs to get on their ponies to assure a top 3. Good situation for Roglic and Bora to maybe rest up a bit for stage 20?