Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 19: Logroño - Alto de Moncalvillo, 173.2k

[KZD]

Roglič to take the jersey and sentence the Vuelta, Mas and Carapaz to get a lot closer to O'Connor.

 

[memyselfandI]

Roglič to take the jersey and sentence the Vuelta, Mas and Carapaz to get a lot closer to O'Connor.

Roglic having two off days.. Then dropping chain in the first corner after tt start ramp. After horrendous hassle fingering chain back on, manages to win overall from Ben OC by four seconds.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don't know if being dropped earlyish mightn't be best for O'Connor to protect his podium position. He's done a pretty good job of limiting his losses once the others are out of sight and he can concentrate on his own race, and he has defended admirably when distanced while the others up the road battle each other. While he's still up with the Roglas of this world he keeps getting white line fever and trying to respond to every single move, blowing himself up and potentially costing himself more.

 

[YavorD]

"Would be nice for if for once the Vuelta was as unwatchable as the Tour this year"

Tbh ever since Ancares it's clear that the pre-race favourite will win the Vuelta.
If we have to compare the Vuelta to the Tour, after week one Pogacar/Vingegaard and Roglic/O'Connor was pretty close comparable as chances to win (at least in the forum). After stage 11 O'Connor's chances vanished while in the Tour Vingegaard looked like favourite so untill at least PdB it wasn't exactly clear who's gonna win.

As for memorable stages both of the GT's had some but nothing really great. The Vuelta naturally gets more GT action because of the stage profiles but the crucial climbs on 5 stages were raced the same way - approach the really steep stuff and Roglic sets the tempo, Mas follows and Landa 10 seconds back.


So yeah, the Vuelta isn't really better than the Tour. It's just that you don't like the mountain sprinter who won the Tour and you like the ever-attacking Roglic who's gonna win the Vuelta. So you like the Vuelta more.

 

[Samamba]

Looks like it will finally be one for the GC riders again

 

[Tim Cahill]

They must surely be hoping for more to try and come over on/before the first climb but I think an easy one to control for Bora, who should give them 5.

 

[Samamba]

They must surely be hoping for more to try and come over on/before the first climb but I think an easy one to control for Bora, who should give them 5.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's not bora but Movistar or even EF controlling. This is the easiest one to control. Obviously also the best stage for Roglic, but there aren't a lot of opportunities left. I mean, podium great and all, but I don't understand why they give away so many opportunities at stage wins. Well, it's not always giving it away, often just not being able to control ofc.

 

[Scarponi]

Tbh ever since Ancares it's clear that the pre-race favourite will win the Vuelta.
If we have to compare the Vuelta to the Tour, after week one Pogacar/Vingegaard and Roglic/O'Connor was pretty close comparable as chances to win (at least in the forum). After stage 11 O'Connor's chances vanished while in the Tour Vingegaard looked like favourite so untill at least PdB it wasn't exactly clear who's gonna win.

As for memorable stages both of the GT's had some but nothing really great. The Vuelta naturally gets more GT action because of the stage profiles but the crucial climbs on 5 stages were raced the same way - approach the really steep stuff and Roglic sets the tempo, Mas follows and Landa 10 seconds back.


So yeah, the Vuelta isn't really better than the Tour. It's just that you don't like the mountain sprinter who won the Tour and you like the ever-attacking Roglic who's gonna win the Vuelta. So you like the Vuelta more.

Did you forget Mas clearly dropping Roglic?

 

[hayneplane]

I don't know if being dropped earlyish mightn't be best for O'Connor to protect his podium position. He's done a pretty good job of limiting his losses once the others are out of sight and he can concentrate on his own race, and he has defended admirably when distanced while the others up the road battle each other. While he's still up with the Roglas of this world he keeps getting white line fever and trying to respond to every single move, blowing himself up and potentially costing himself more.

Probably correct analysis in the cold harsh light of day but in the battle it’s hard to think like that especially as, like many others, I strongly suspect he will never have as good a chance as this again in his career to win a Grand Tour.

 

[hayneplane]

In theory Del Toro would smoke the break easily but this deep into a 3 week race the biggest factor is what’s left in the tank as seen yesterday where you would have ranked at least 15 of the 42 riders in the break as more likely than Berrade to win.

 

[Faserr]

Red Bull Bora is leading the bunch now.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

Vine should stop riding outside before he gets seriously injured

 

[ManicJack]

O'Connor seems to be a bit more realistic about his chances, per his interview.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Probably correct analysis in the cold harsh light of day but in the battle it’s hard to think like that especially as, like many others, I strongly suspect he will never have as good a chance as this again in his career to win a Grand Tour.

Some are better than others at it. Carlos Sastre was renowned for frequently letting go early and being one of the first to be dropped on big climbs, but then re-emerging near the front at the summit having picked everybody that blew up trying to go with attacks off one by one. Cadel Evans, by contrast, is somebody who was renowned for being up at the front and trying to answer every attack until going into the red and blowing up. For example, in the 2009 Vuelta, the famous neutral service puncture stage, Evans' fans claimed that as costing him the Vuelta for years afterward, but he didn't lose as much time as his race-end deficit, and not only that, but while he was dropped from the Valverde-Mosquera-Gesink group as a result, he did join the group with Samuel Sánchez who had been dropped and worked with him for a while in that group. Samu eventually came in 20" behind the Valverde group, but Evans lost 1'07" because with the situation that had unfolded, he got over-eager to chase back and overexerted himself in the process.

O'Connor seems to be quite good at managing his workload when left to his own devices, but it seems he needs in the circumstances of this Vuelta he's got a bit overexcited when in the mix with the opposition and it could wind up costing him, so he will probably be better served not having the distraction of the stop-start pacing of the other contenders around him if he wants to limit his losses and protect the podium. Although maybe now the lead has shrunk down to almost nothing and he can recognise that comments about Roglič needing "a lot of bonus seconds" are going to come back to haunt him, he will be a bit wiser to that now that the chances of actual victory are so slim unless Roglič crashes out or gets sick, but the podium is still very readily achievable. A lot of the time for people that aren't the Pogačars of this world, winning a GT is about making sure that if bad fortune befalls those in front of you, manoeuvring it so that you are the one that profits, not somebody else.

 

[Rob5091]

Not race of the fallen leaves, but race of the discarded gel/energy bar wrappers!

 

[staubsauger]

@Libertine Seguros

I would argue that Evans time loss at Sierra Nevada was partly psychological, since he was always a bit frail mentally.

However up towards Plateau de Beille Evans indeed went after Contador together with Rasmussen and fully blew up in consequence!

 

[Rob5091]

Looks like Roglic is feeling good if he's put his men on the front. AG2R's men with a day off.

 

[RedheadDane]

Not race of the fallen leaves, but race of the discarded gel/energy bar wrappers!

They were going through the waste zone?

 

[Rob5091]

They were going through the waste zone?

Correct - somebody will be kept busy with a broom afterwards.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

Mou cannot be happy that the mountain is named after Pog's ex coach

 

[ice&fire]

Echelons in the making?

 

[ice&fire]

Mou cannot be happy that the mountain is named after Pog's ex coach

He's got his own village in the area too, and they will go past it in a few minutes.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Echelons in the making?

I think all the GC riders are back now.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

He's got his own village in the area too, and they will go past it in a few minutes.

Real reason why Pog skipped the Vuelta

 

[Sciatic]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's not bora but Movistar or even EF controlling. This is the easiest one to control. Obviously also the best stage for Roglic, but there aren't a lot of opportunities left. I mean, podium great and all, but I don't understand why they give away so many opportunities at stage wins. Well, it's not always giving it away, often just not being able to control ofc.

Exactly