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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 20: Villarcayo - Picón Blanco, 172.0k

The final mountain stage of the race - and indeed the last major mountain stage of the season - is a veritable sawtooth, although I've seen better toolmakers...
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There's precious little flat on this stage. Even in the first 25 kilometres, the longest KOM-less stretch of the day, there's the Alto de Bocos to deal with.
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From here, we pass through Espinosa de los Monteros, at the base of the MTF, for the first time. Next up is an example of perhaps the most typical feature of the Cordillera Cantábrica. Throughout its entire length, from western Asturias to the middle of the Basque Country, it has the high-lying Meseta to its south and the coast to its north, making for some very lopsided climbs at the watershed. Las Estacas de Trueba showcases this well, with the southern side being tackled here barely worthy of the KOM points.
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The easy climb therefore makes for a long descent into Cantabria, and with that the first and easiest part of a sextuplet of climbs chaining directly into each other is out of the way. The next stopoff is Puerto de la Braguía, still a cat. 3 but certainly more testing.
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The day's third climb is Alto del Caracol, from the side descended on Wednesday. I'll spare you the repeat of my stage 17 rant.
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After this, it's time for the first cat. 1 of the day, Portillo de Lunada. As we're coming from Caracol, it's only the final 14k of the profile below, from the marked junction onwards.
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The summit of Lunada is on the watershed, just like that of the next climb, Portillo de la Sía, and the last bit of the descent was actually climbed on the way to Estacas de Trueba earlier in the stage. However, both climb and descent are a bit more significant this time.
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After a long descent, it's time for the bad part of the stage. As I've said previously, Estranguada - Lunada would have been the best possible run-in to the MTF because it has very little flat. Going up Puerto de Los Tornos instead makes for 18 flattish kilometres between summit and bottom of the MTF, but that is far from the biggest problem here. That dubious honour goes to the side of Tornos they're taking: it just isn't steep enough. What's more, there is a much better side, and in addition to that there are some pretty steep climbs that back directly into either side. While this isn't a bad stage design by any means, there are easily a dozen better versions of it and it's a shame that we aren't seeing one.

But I digress. This is the side we're actually doing, and who knows, maybe that one kilometre above 7% will actually do something.
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At the summit, we go back into Burgos for the final time, and this time the climb is so lopsided that there is no descent to speak of. Back to Espinosa it is, for a MTF seen once before at the Vuelta (in 2021, plus in a bunch of Vuelta a Burgos stages), but never in a stage even half this hard. It's the hardest and by far the steepest climb of the day, but unless you're Enric Mas going for second place, not hard enough to do the damage on its own. Here's hoping the stage is raced accordingly.
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I've been complaining for too long about regional boundaries preventing route designs like this one. So, even if the stage route could be improved I will celebrate for now that Unipublic has found a way to design a stage crossing regional borders four times and having a significant portions on each side. This will allow us seeing one of the most scenic climbs in Spain on the way up.

 
So what is the plan here for the GC guys? I think it goes something like this:
Roglič- control break formation, then just stay concentrated and don‘t let them drop you
O‘Connor- get a few guys in the break for defense, then stick to the other guys
Mas- I guess attack early on Picon Blanco, I doubt he can go for the GC victory
Carapaz- long range attack, but tough to find a steep enough climb for that
Gaudu- I think defense, just too far down on the guys ahead of him
Skjelmose- defend white
Rodriguez- hope to be stronger than Skjelmose
Lipowitz- work for Roglič if it gets crazy
Landa- Free Landa, nothing to lose really
Sivakov- participate in some crazy UAE early break attack
 
So what is the plan here for the GC guys? I think it goes something like this:
Roglič- control break formation, then just stay concentrated and don‘t let them drop you
O‘Connor- get a few guys in the break for defense, then stick to the other guys
Mas- I guess attack early on Picon Blanco, I doubt he can go for the GC victory
Carapaz- long range attack, but tough to find a steep enough climb for that
Gaudu- I think defense, just too far down on the guys ahead of him
Skjelmose- defend white
Rodriguez- hope to be stronger than Skjelmose
Lipowitz- work for Roglič if it gets crazy
Landa- Free Landa, nothing to lose really
Sivakov- participate in some crazy UAE early break attack
Soler to do Soler things to everyone including Sivakov.
 
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So what is the plan here for the GC guys? I think it goes something like this:
Roglič- control break formation, then just stay concentrated and don‘t let them drop you
O‘Connor- get a few guys in the break for defense, then stick to the other guys
Mas- I guess attack early on Picon Blanco, I doubt he can go for the GC victory
Carapaz- long range attack, but tough to find a steep enough climb for that
Gaudu- I think defense, just too far down on the guys ahead of him
Skjelmose- defend white
Rodriguez- hope to be stronger than Skjelmose
Lipowitz- work for Roglič if it gets crazy
Landa- Free Landa, nothing to lose really
Sivakov- participate in some crazy UAE early break attack
Gaudu needs to attack as he will need significant time on Skjelmose to hold him off in the TT.

Would expect Sivakov to go stage hunting as part of the UAE all for themselves strategy of trying to swarm the breakaway with their full team.

Would love to see Mas try a raid from 3 climbs out but he doesn’t have the rouleur pedigree to make that stick unless an alliance with Carapaz. Both already have a Vuelta podium so another does not dramatically alter their palmares and they should risk losing places to go all out to gain them.
 
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Would love to see Mas try a raid from 3 climbs out but he doesn’t have the rouleur pedigree to make that stick unless an alliance with Carapaz. Both already have a Vuelta podium so another does not dramatically alter their palmares and they should risk losing places to go all out to gain them.
Nah, Movistar especially should bank the points of a high GC finish and not risk anything.
Carapaz might but he's basically GC Van Aert. Rides at the front at pointless times for no actual racing benefit. All superficiality, zero substance. Perfect for Team Vaughters.

UCI made the rules and that's the kind of racing we deserve.
 
Gaudu needs to attack as he will need significant time on Skjelmose to hold him off in the TT.

Would expect Sivakov to go stage hunting as part of the UAE all for themselves strategy of trying to swarm the breakaway with their full team.

Would love to see Mas try a raid from 3 climbs out but he doesn’t have the rouleur pedigree to make that stick unless an alliance with Carapaz. Both already have a Vuelta podium so another does not dramatically alter their palmares and they should risk losing places to go all out to gain them.
Roglic and a teammate or two could try a long move with Mas. Movistar is useless, though so just following him and keeping Carapaz within 1:30 could wrap things up for the last climb. The right group could even go on the second to last climb.
 
After a long descent, it's time for the bad part of the stage. As I've said previously, Estranguada - Lunada would have been the best possible run-in to the MTF because it has very little flat. Going up Puerto de Los Tornos instead makes for 18 flattish kilometres between summit and bottom of the MTF, but that is far from the biggest problem here. That dubious honour goes to the side of Tornos they're taking: it just isn't steep enough. What's more, there is a much better side, and in addition to that there are some pretty steep climbs that back directly into either side. While this isn't a bad stage design by any means, there are easily a dozen better versions of it and it's a shame that we aren't seeing one.
I've come to the conclusion that Tornos after Lunada is better, but rather than substituting Caracol for Estranguada I'd substitute Sía for Picón Blanco. So you'd get this with minimal change:

6bt5YOn.png


I've been complaining for too long about regional boundaries preventing route designs like this one. So, even if the stage route could be improved I will celebrate for now that Unipublic has found a way to design a stage crossing regional borders four times and having a significant portions on each side. This will allow us seeing one of the most scenic climbs in Spain on the way up.


And it's easy to imagine the same border being crossed with the finish in Cantabria:

 
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Doing the Tour-Vuelta double has impact on some the GC guys in this Vuelta. There's really a fatigue factor on Yates, Rodriguez, Landa and Mas after their efforts in racing with/against Pogacar in the Tour. Roglic 12 stages in the Tour was an ideal preparation, Skjelmose is well-rested as his last races prior to the Vuelta are the Olympics and Tour of Switzerland. Gaudu raced the Tour as if he were just training for the Vuelta.
 
Doing the Tour-Vuelta double has impact on some the GC guys in this Vuelta. There's really a fatigue factor on Yates, Rodriguez, Landa and Mas after their efforts in racing with/against Pogacar in the Tour. Roglic 12 stages in the Tour was an ideal preparation, Skjelmose is well-rested as his last races prior to the Vuelta are the Olympics and Tour of Switzerland. Gaudu raced the Tour as if he were just training for the Vuelta.
I thought Mas was doing the same as you suggest Gaudu did, although he did do the week 3 stage hunting along with Carapaz.
 
I've come to the conclusion that Tornos after Lunada is better, but rather than substituting Caracol for Estranguada I'd substitute Sía for Picón Blanco. So you'd get this with minimal change:

6bt5YOn.png




And it's easy to imagine the same border being crossed with the finish in Cantabria:

Los Tornos is a very weak penultimate climb. The best they can do is using it as a descent, climb La Sía from the North and then do the sequence of Estacas de Trueba, Braguía, Caracol and Lunada before Picón Blanco and finish down at Espinosa de los Monteros.