Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 8: Úbeda - Cazorla, 158.7k

[Devil's Elbow]

The second weekend starts with a deceptively-tricky uphill finish.

Rolling for most of the day - mercifully for the riders, at slightly higher elevations than today, every degree helps a bit in this heat. The only point of interest is Puerto Mirador de las Palomas, near the source of the Guadalquivir river which flows through Córdoba and Sevilla.

After more rolling terrain on a local circuit, it's time for the HTF. This is not the hardest possible way up to the summit (Cazorla is littered with steep roads), but it's significantly tougher than the 2015 finish here, which was the first 60% of the same climb. Considering that Chaves won that stage solo and Dan Martin and Dumoulin also took some seconds on the other GC riders, it would be rather surprising to see this extended version fail to produce GC-relevant gaps. Yes, 4.9k at 7.0% doesn't sound like much, but it's really irregular and also gets quite narrow past La Iruela.

 

[ManicJack]

Step # 1 of O'Connor figuring out he's racing for a podium spot.

 

[zlev11]

O'Connor +45" on the best of the GC riders

 

[Cookster15]

Last three km are over 10%. Good test for O'Conner. Roglic FTW.

 

[will-10]

Red Bull to overcompensate again and control the whole day, Rogla somehow finding a way to not win

 

[YavorD]

Last three km are over 10%. Good test for O'Conner. Roglic FTW.

Wait, what? The profiles I see only last km is over 10%.

 

[Cookster15]

Wait, what? The profiles I see only last km is over 10%.

I misread the profile. Last three sectors are over 10% but that is all well inside the last km.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I'm trying to think of similarish climbs but can't think of any.

Maybe like Vaujany?

This *** is so ultimately Vuelta.

How about this one?

Although I seem to remember a big headwind on that stage.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I dunno that's very obscure in my book.

I didn't say it wasn't.

 

[Squire]

O'Connor +45" on the best of the GC riders

That's A LOT of time to lose on such a short climb. That requires someone like Vlasov to drop him in the first steep km by quite a margin and then hammer it on the shallower part to drive the advantage home. Don't quite see that happening. I'll be surprised if O'Connor is dropped before the final steep ramp.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Breakaway vs Bora again, Roglic has to hope they perform like stage 7. Which UAE rider is going on a flier today?

 

[Rob5091]

Bora and Roglic realize that Roglic is not Pogi and can go on a 50 km attack to win back time, so it'll be a little every day and keep on the pressure until the ITT in Madrid. Of course he runs the risk of dragging Almeida or someone else with him, but there's really no other course of action.
O'Connor's first real test today to see how his legs are after stage 6. Hope AG2R/Decathlon send Gall up the road just for giggles.
Be interesting to see what UAE cook up in an attempt to get back time.

 

[search]

The official profile looks a lot harder, but there must be a mistake, I guess. The numbers don't fit with the average, at least

(this is from AS, but it's the same in the official roadbook)

 

[elguapo]

With his time-trialing strength, Roglic and his team should device a similar Contador Fuente De ambush. I'm sure that a long-range attack might work if another strong rider may go and collaborate with him.

 

[tobydawq]

How about this one?

Although I seem to remember a big headwind on that stage.

Isn't that a lot more regular than this?

 

[tobydawq]

With his time-trialing strength, Roglic and his team should device a similar Contador Fuente De ambush. I'm sure that a long-range attack might work if another strong rider may go and collaborate with him.

Who will play the Tiralongo role?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Isn't that a lot more regular than this?

Yes, but the average gradient is also a bit higher. Can't think of a closer comparison in any case.

The official profile looks a lot harder, but there must be a mistake, I guess. The numbers don't fit with the average, at least

(this is from AS, but it's the same in the official roadbook)

In my experience, Vuelta climb profiles are about as reliable as your average paid blue-tick account on Twitter. And as you mention, the percentages for each kilometre would give an average gradient of 9.9% which is obviously impossible. I sourced my data from both the Andalucian and Spanish geoportals and cross-referenced everything with Streetview, so pretty confident in the accuracy of my profile.

 

[Colombiano Cadence]

Decathlon are in such a strong position but I’m not sure they will use it to their advantage. They have Gall and Berthet close up in GC, if you discount BOC, and they should absolutely try and get one of them in the break over next few days. Let the others chase.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

The official profile is ***, the only hard km are the first and the last, both around 9% so nothing crazy.

 

[Miha81]

Looking forward to this one. To see if O'Connor is really in best shape this season and what GC guys have in their legs.

 

[Samamba]

You can probably shred this peloton simply by having your team in front on in the narrow corner turning onto the steep section and kicking hard out of that corner immediately

Dumoulin hilarious interview after the stage too: "I attacked cause Valverde and Purito were looking at each other like always"

It's also a descent straight into this. The part after the first km isn't steep tho so riders might come back a bit but you can at least really hurt riders who are out of position.

 

[gregrowlerson]

With his time-trialing strength, Roglic and his team should device a similar Contador Fuente De ambush. I'm sure that a long-range attack might work if another strong rider may go and collaborate with him.

There is a long way to go in this race, and I think that people are panicking a little. Sure, Bora made a mistake on stage 6, but I would ride normally right now and trust that Roglic is significantly stronger than O'Connor on most of the remaining stages.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'm trying to think of similarish climbs but can't think of any.

Maybe like Vaujany?

This *** is so ultimately Vuelta.

 

[KZD]

I don't think its a great day for the breakaway with the flatish start.

My pick is Van Eetvelt outsprinting Roglič on the line and O'Connor to lose 20-30 seconds.

 

[topcat]

There is a long way to go in this race, and I think that people are panicking a little. Sure, Bora made a mistake on stage 6, but I would ride normally right now and trust that Roglic is significantly stronger than O'Connor on most of the remaining stages.

Just to add some intellect to the duscussion:
Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oi, Oi, Oi