Vuelta a España 2025 discussion

[Pozzovivo]

Wait, what?? How on earth is Ciccone 2nd tier?

More or less ranked according to the betting markets. Based on current form and market perception I suppose.

 

[Pozzovivo]

In many years time we are going to talk about this race in the context of 'remember when x top 10ed a GC', some absolute nobody is going to get the best result of their career, like that time Eiking almost fluked it.

like 20 when Carthy came 3rd?!

#	Rider	Team	Time
1	Primož Roglič	Team Jumbo-Visma	72:46:12
2	Richard Carapaz	INEOS Grenadiers	+00:00:24
3	Hugh Carthy	EF Pro Cycling	+00:01:15
4	Dan Martin	Israel Start-Up Nation	+00:02:43
5	Enric Mas	Movistar Team	+00:03:36
6	Wout Poels	Bahrain - McLaren	+00:07:16
7	David De La Cruz	UAE Team Emirates	+00:07:35
8	David Gaudu	Groupama - FDJ	+00:07:45
9	Felix Großschartner	BORA - hansgrohe	+00:08:15
10	Alejandro Valverde	Movistar Team	+00:09:34

Or like 21?

#	Rider	Team	Time
1	Primož Roglič	Team Jumbo-Visma	83:55:29
2	Enric Mas	Movistar Team	+00:04:42
3	Jack Haig	Bahrain - Victorious	+00:07:40
4	Adam Yates	INEOS Grenadiers	+00:09:06
5	Gino Mäder	Bahrain - Victorious	+00:11:33
6	Egan Bernal	INEOS Grenadiers	+00:13:27
7	David De La Cruz	UAE Team Emirates	+00:18:33
8	Sepp Kuss	Team Jumbo-Visma	+00:18:55
9	Guillaume Martin	Cofidis	+00:20:27
10	Felix Großschartner	BORA - hansgrohe	+00:22:22

 

[Pozzovivo]

In many years time we are going to talk about this race in the context of 'remember when x top 10ed a GC', some absolute nobody is going to get the best result of their career, like that time Eiking almost fluked it.

CF Hagen coming 8th in 2019 fits the bill! What happened to that guy?

 

[YavorD]

More or less ranked according to the betting markets. Based on current form and market perception I suppose.

As per usual, bets are crazy with overrating 3rd and 4th tier GT riders after a good performance in a small race 3 weeks before a GT.
Literally the same way everyone claimed Storer is a potential podium contender
And at least he had top 10 in a GT before (okay, in Ciccone's defence, 11th in the Tour is better that 10th in the Giro, but still..).

 

[Valv.Piti]

Lmao DNS left and right again today. Will be a very thin group of GC riders to begin with and thats not even considering Ciccone and Landa apparantly not prioritizing it and the inevetiably abandons that happens in a 3 week race. A few crashes to the top dogs and this will suddenly look like a VERY weird race

 

[Hugo Koblet]

As per usual, bets are crazy with overrating 3rd and 4th tier GT riders after a good performance in a small race 3 weeks before a GT.
Literally the same way everyone claimed Storer is a potential podium contender
And at least he had top 10 in a GT before (okay, in Ciccone's defence, 11th in the Tour is better that 10th in the Giro, but still..).

It's based on potential, unknown ability. There's basically no chance that Bernal wins the Vuelta, but Ciccone at least has a high enough level that if he puts it all together over three weeks, he potentially has a chance, however unlikely that is (if Vingegaard DNF of course).

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Lmao DNS left and right again today. Will be a very thin group of GC riders to begin with and thats not even considering Ciccone and Landa apparantly not prioritizing it and the inevetiably abandons that happens in a 3 week race. A few crashes to the top dogs and this will suddenly look like a VERY weird race

I see a fantastic opportunity for people like Cristián Rodríguez to finish something like 7th by virtue of six legitimate GC riders making it to Madrid. Heck, I don't think we even have ten legitimate GC riders right now with the Mas, Carapaz, Gee and Poole withdrawals and the Ciccone and Landa stage focuses.

 

[YavorD]

It's based on potential, unknown ability. There's basically no chance that Bernal wins the Vuelta, but Ciccone at least has a high enough level that if he puts it all together over three weeks, he potentially has a chance, however unlikely that is (if Vingegaard DNF of course).

If it's based on that, Fortunato is a potential podium or at least top 5 contender as well. And he is only second year WT, so we can give him the benefit of the doubt.

Ciccone has proven time and time again that he can't put it together over one week (never podiumed a 1 week stage race, except for the 4th GT of UAE), let alone 3 weeks. And that, to me, is far more important than a good showing in San Sebastian and Burgos.

 

[topcat]

Lmao DNS left and right again today. Will be a very thin group of GC riders to begin with and thats not even considering Ciccone and Landa apparantly not prioritizing it and the inevetiably abandons that happens in a 3 week race. A few crashes to the top dogs and this will suddenly look like a VERY weird race

Froome not on the startlist *******

 

[Hugo Koblet]

If it's based on that, Fortunato is a potential podium or at least top 5 contender as well. And he is only second year WT, so we can give him the benefit of the doubt.

Ciccone has proven time and time again that he can't put it together over one week (never podiumed a 1 week stage race, except for the 4th GT of UAE), let alone 3 weeks. And that, to me, is far more important than a good showing in San Sebastian and Burgos.

Well, I don't have many expectations for Ciccone either, but he has that "what if"-factor that almost no one else has, so I get why his odds are short. He's not nearly as highly rated to finish top 10, which makes sense.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

CF Hagen coming 8th in 2019 fits the bill!

Peter Velits 2nd, Phil Deignan top 10,

 

[Devil's Elbow]

If it's based on that, Fortunato is a potential podium or at least top 5 contender as well. And he is only second year WT, so we can give him the benefit of the doubt.

Ciccone has proven time and time again that he can't put it together over one week (never podiumed a 1 week stage race, except for the 4th GT of UAE), let alone 3 weeks. And that, to me, is far more important than a good showing in San Sebastian and Burgos.

As has been mentioned previously, Ciccone has crashed out late on in three of the four GTs where he was doing a GC, most recently in the mass pileup on the stage Asgreen won at the Giro this year. It's probably irrelevant for this race because he's targeting stages + KOM jersey anyway, but the idea that he's 'proven time and time again' that he can't put a GT GC attempt together is demonstrably false.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Peter Velits 2nd, Phil Deignan top 10,

Felix Grossschartner for two years on the spin, in this decade.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Its one thing to put together a bottom top-10 and entirely another to top 3 out of thin air like Velits IMO. We have seen loits and lots of relatively random riders making a top-10 due to weak startlists, crashes, breaks, overperforming and the Vuelta being the third GT of the year. The real gems are the likes of Cobo, Froome, Horner, Velits and I guess Haig as well

 

[YavorD]

As has been mentioned previously, Ciccone has crashed out late on in three of the four GTs where he was doing a GC, most recently in the mass pileup on the stage Asgreen won at the Giro this year. It's probably irrelevant for this race because he's targeting stages + KOM jersey anyway, but the idea that he's 'proven time and time again' that he can't put a GT GC attempt together is demonstrably false.

But if he can't finish a GT because of a crash, he will never put a GC attempt together, so the idea can't be "false". It may be proven wrong (which could eventually prove to be outlier), but as the things stay, it's not false.

If we assume he would put a decent GC result if not for the crash, thus dismissing my rant, we may as well assume Roglic was the real Giro winner. Was he? No.

 

[Tim Cahill]

DDLC I think will top 10 for Q36 at 36, as another rogue pick I’m going with Poles. Watch him podium on angliru.

 

[Rou]

Vingegaard
Almeida
Ayuso
Hindley
O'Connor
Dunbar
Gall
Tiberi
Gaudu
Guillaume Martin
Bernal
Landa
Ciccone
Caruso
Pellizzari
And some other guys.
What are you guys talking about? It's a respectable field.

 

[Phillip O'Garner]

Ineos can't even be bothered to name a team. I can guess we could probably work it out by eliminating those currently at Renewi and Deutschland, or who are injured (C Rod). Victor L for the GC.

 

[AmRacer]

Ineos can't even be bothered to name a team. I can guess we could probably work it out by eliminating those currently at Renewi and Deutschland, or who are injured (C Rod). Victor L for the GC.

Bernal

 

[Devil's Elbow]

But if he can't finish a GT because of a crash, he will never put a GC attempt together, so the idea can't be "false". It may be proven wrong (which could eventually prove to be outlier), but as the things stay, it's not false.

If we assume he would put a decent GC result if not for the crash, thus dismissing my rant, we may as well assume Roglic was the real Giro winner. Was he? No.

Ciccone is 7/10 for finishing his GTs where he didn’t go for GC, so his DNF rate in the other four involves a lot of random chance.

And if we go back to Hugo’s point - Richie Porte managed his Tour podium eventually and he had both done way more attempts by that point and was also way more prone to DNFs. Geraint Thomas had had a similar amount of GT GC attempts to Ciccone now prior to the 2018 Tour, had also DNFd on most of them, and he was older at the time. Wilco Kelderman had a twelve-month spell where he podiumed the Giro and top-5d the Tour in the middle of a career where nothing tended to click in GTs. If they could all pull it off at some point, then why would Ciccone have no chance of doing the same?

 

[YavorD]

Ciccone is 7/10 for finishing his GTs where he didn’t go for GC, so his DNF rate in the other four involves a lot of random chance.

And if we go back to Hugo’s point - Richie Porte managed his Tour podium eventually and he had both done way more attempts by that point and was also way more prone to DNFs. Geraint Thomas had had a similar amount of GT GC attempts to Ciccone now prior to the 2018 Tour, had also DNFd on most of them, and he was older at the time. Wilco Kelderman had a twelve-month spell where he podiumed the Giro and top-5d the Tour in the middle of a career where nothing tended to click in GTs. If they could all pull it off at some point, then why would Ciccone have no chance of doing the same?

Yeah, I thought you would go with Porte. However, Porte was a great one week rider, so he had some GC pedigree, although fairly different than a GC, still shows he can put a GC result together in the biggest (one week) races. Ciccone never podiumed one of the biggest stage races. Heck, did he even finish top 5 in any?
Kelderman had a few top 10s in a GT before his podium, so not entirely compatible with Ciccone as well.
Hexk, even Caruso had top 10s before his Giro in 2021

Carthy is probably the closest comparison you can get, but even he was 25 at the time of his podium. Ciccone is 31.
And no, I'm not saying he can't finish top 3 or top 5, I'm just saying putting him above riders with proven GT record is a bit premature and putting too much weight on a . pro race.
Heck, Netserk putting Gee as a legitimate podium contender before the Giro had a lot more basis than Ciccone now.

P.s. Perhaps Ciccone not wanting to go for GC in this very thin field shows he knows his limits, basically proving my point that he isn't a GC rider.

 

[tobydawq]

But if he can't finish a GT because of a crash, he will never put a GC attempt together, so the idea can't be "false". It may be proven wrong (which could eventually prove to be outlier), but as the things stay, it's not false.

If you roll a 6 three times in a row with a die, you're not guaranteed to do it a fourth time.

 

[YavorD]

uch more you roll a 6 three times in a row with a die, you're not guaranteed to do it a fourth time.

It is indeed more unlikely to happen.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Its one thing to put together a bottom top-10 and entirely another to top 3 out of thin air like Velits IMO. We have seen loits and lots of relatively random riders making a top-10 due to weak startlists, crashes, breaks, overperforming and the Vuelta being the third GT of the year. The real gems are the likes of Cobo, Froome, Horner, Velits and I guess Haig as well

Bob Stapleton's HTC team was very good at getting some stunning results out of riders who never came close to replicating that elsewhere. While many of those riders would go on to pretty solid careers (Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tony Martin, Maxime Monfort, Tejay van Garderen) and outlying wins at HTC were more the product of the team's overall strength giving options at the time (take Bernhard Eisel's Gent-Wevelgem win, for example), there are a good few "WTF?" displays sprinkled in there too.

Matt Goss winning Sanremo and a silver medal at the Worlds; he would win one race in five pro seasons after leaving the team, a Giro stage where Roberto Ferrari caused a huge pileup that took out half the sprinting field. Thomas Löfkvist being one of the hottest young GC prospects after finishing 3rd and 4th in Tirreno-Adriatico, 5th in the Tour de Suisse, and battling over the white jersey at the Giro, as well as 3rd in Emilia and 6th in Flèche Wallonne. Greg Henderson winning a Vuelta stage as the team's 4th - at best - sprinter in the hierarchy. Marco Pinotti having his career peak from 32 to 34 and finishing top 10 in the Giro. Linus Gerdemann winning a TDF mountain stage, the Tour de l'Ain and the Deutschlandtour and being talked of, seriously, as a GC prospect.

It was a very weird between-certain-eras era of cycling and some of those results and brief heydays just look very strange looking back. I mean, it's crazy to think that when Sky started up, Thomas Löfkvist was legitimately their most promising GT prospect.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

CF Hagen coming 8th in 2019 fits the bill! What happened to that guy?

He overtrained during the Covid break in 2020, entered the Giro that autumn in minus and suffered through, then in the winter of 2021 he had a horrible crash in training and didnt come back before late August. After that he was't as strong as before, and while the entire peloton speed up during this years he was left behind. In the last couple of years of his career he had some OK results, like 5th in Hungary 2022 and a couple of top 10 overalls in Tour of Norway, Artic Race and Turkey. Of course, he never was a world beater, but in 2019 he was a very solid rider. Outside of the Vuelta he was very solid also in Romandie, Dauphine and Guangxi that season. In the Vuelta, when we remove the time he gained in the break on stage 7 he would still finish 8th overall. And on the stage 18 he did climb like a legit GC rider, and from the peloton finished with Pogacar and Quinatana.

Now he's an expert commentator for Norwegian Eurosport and has a pretty big podcast about cycling.