Vuelta a Espana Stage 4: Baza - Sierra Nevada 170.2 km

[just some guy]

Lead up to nearly 4 min as the hit the 1st cat climb

 

[theyoungest]

Just out of interest Dekker, how many riders do you consider attacking ones? Gesink (wheelsucker imo) and Contador?

I know you're just baiting Dekker_T, but wheelsucker is just ridiculous IMO. The only time he sort of wheelsucked his way to a win was in the Giro dell Emilia last year, his other wins are far from stolen.

 

[Greenflame]

Nibali attacked in the Giro 11? I've seen him trying at the Etna once. Other than that I've only seen him ride own pace and finishing in front groups.
He's a good tempo climber but he nearly never attacks. (that would be stupid too, and Nibali is smart)

Funny how you watch the same race and see something completely different. Nibali the attacker uphill. I giggle. Maybe you are confusing his downhill attacks for mountain attacks.
Read back the discussion, it's about Nibali attacking on MTF finishes. Did you forget?

Fine, you want to push this, let's do that. On top of my head

2011 Giro d'Italia.
Stage to Etna. Nibali attacked a few times behind Contador and launched another attack in the final k. Unsuccesfully, but he did attack.

Stage to Zoncolan. Nibali responded on his own diesel tempo to explosive attacks by others. However, he got back to Contador and Scarponi and took the lead, dropping Scarponi flat out his wheel while not allowing one of the greatest climbers in the world Anton to take more than 30 seconds (or what was it?) from him on one of the hardest mountains in Europe.

Stage to Macugnaga or something?. Nibali was driving the tempo along the climb a few times, and attacked in the final bit, taking a few seconds from Scarponi.

Three clear attacks. Not a whole lot, but more than you'll find for instance Schleck (who you classified as agressive) doing in the previous Tour. I've probably forgotten some attempts too, since my memory isn't great for these things. In addition to that, a very gutsy Mountain TT, and some attacking on the descends.

 

[hrotha]

Nibali attacked in the Giro 11? I've seen him trying at the Etna once. Other than that I've only seen him ride own pace and finishing in front groups.
He's a good tempo climber but he nearly never attacks. (that would be stupid too, and Nibali is smart)

Funny how you watch the same race and see something completely different. Nibali the attacker uphill. I giggle. Maybe you are confusing his downhill attacks for mountain attacks.
Read back the discussion, it's about Nibali attacking on MTF finishes. Did you forget?

I was indeed thinking of his downhill attacks.

 

[theyoungest]

Three clear attacks. Not a whole lot, but more than you'll find for instance Schleck (who you classified as agressive) doing in the previous Tour. I've probably forgotten some attempts too, since my memory isn't great for these things. In addition to that, a very gutsy Mountain TT, and some attacking on the descends.

Do you mean the Tour 2010? Schleck did a fair bit of attacking there, on the Madeleine and the Tourmalet. I assume you don't mean this year, where he won a stage with a giant solo attack. Nibali could never pull that off IMO (not uphill at any rate).

 

[markene2]

If Kash fails hard today i will write him off as a contender for any stage race in the future. Astana should stick with kessiakoff as the leader. And i want to see Brajkovic do good here. Remember him doing well in the first MT stages in 06 vuelta.

 

[Dedelou]

Nibali attacked in the Giro 11? I've seen him trying at the Etna once. Other than that I've only seen him ride own pace and finishing in front groups.
He's a good tempo climber but he nearly never attacks. (that would be stupid too, and Nibali is smart)

Funny how you watch the same race and see something completely different. Nibali the attacker uphill. I giggle. Maybe you are confusing his downhill attacks for mountain attacks.
Read back the discussion, it's about Nibali attacking on MTF finishes. Did you forget?

the way I see it "attacking " is a mentality. Where and when a rider attacks is what makes the difference. Attacking on a downhill is part of using the "mountain" and it has its place in defining an attacker, IMO. At one point or another in order to win, Nibali uses his strengh to make some small attacks but he is not, by my definition, somebody you would consider an "attacker" because he rarely use that method as strategy to make the race. He is more of a plugger that grinds the opposition with consistant resistance

 

[just some guy]

5.10 to the break

 

[Greenflame]

Do you mean the Tour 2010? Schleck did a fair bit of attacking there, on the Madeleine and the Tourmalet. I assume you don't mean this year, where he won a stage with a giant solo attack. Nibali could never pull that off IMO (not uphill at any rate).

Yes, I meant 2010, sorry. Schleck's attacking there was.. limited at best. Now that I think of it more, perhaps you're right in saying it was more than 3 times, I forgot about his stage win early in the Tour. Still, doesn't change the point: Nibali isn't nearly as passive as people (DT) make him out to be.

Anyway, for todays stage, who will challenge Busche for the win if the break stays ahead? Rohregger? Vorganov?

 

[Carstenbf]

Expecting CAS to attack. Hope he has the form to last more then the 20s pushes as of late. First race I can remember seeing him as the #1 guy for Saxo. Overall victory is of course pretty much out of the question, but wouldn't surprise me to see him go for the mountains classification. Might as well start today.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Fine, you want to push this, let's do that. On top of my head

2011 Giro d'Italia.
Stage to Etna. Nibali attacked a few times behind Contador and launched another attack in the final k. Unsuccesfully, but he did attack.

Stage to Zoncolan. Nibali responded on his own diesel tempo to explosive attacks by others. However, he got back to Contador and Scarponi and took the lead, dropping Scarponi flat out his wheel while not allowing one of the greatest climbers in the world Anton to take more than 30 seconds (or what was it?) from him on one of the hardest mountains in Europe.

Stage to Macugnaga or something?. Nibali was driving the tempo along the climb a few times, and attacked in the final bit, taking a few seconds from Scarponi.

Three clear attacks. Not a whole lot, but more than you'll find for instance Schleck (who you classified as agressive) doing in the previous Tour. I've probably forgotten some attempts too, since my memory isn't great for these things. In addition to that, a very gutsy Mountain TT, and some attacking on the descends.

Lets get your facts straight shall we? Nibali attacked once on the Etna, at the final K. Driving the pace for a short while is not attacking. Otherwise I want to nominate Sylvester Szmyd as top mountain attacker. Or Cadel Evans this years Tour, or Robert Gesink countless times, or Basso even more countless times.

On the Zoncolan, again that was not attacking, again riding own pace, as I referred to in my earlier posts, that's his style, riding own pace and not blow up by chasing explosive attacks.

On the Macgunana it was a sprint in the final hundred meters.. if we are going to count that then yes, you'll get to 'attacks'
You do realise that if you count riding at own pace / final 500 meter sprints as attacks, like you do with Nibali, that Gesink now becomes and other-worldly attacker?

 

[Lanark]

Yes, I meant 2010, sorry. Schleck's attacking there was.. limited at best. Now that I think of it more, perhaps you're right in saying it was more than 3 times, I forgot about his stage win early in the Tour. Still, doesn't change the point: Nibali isn't nearly as passive as people (DT) make him out to be.

Anyway, for todays stage, who will challenge Busche for the win if the break stays ahead? Rohregger? Vorganov?

Really? He attacked in the stage to Morzine, on the Madeleine, on the chain-gate stage and on the Tourmalet. That's about as aggresive as GC-riders come these days. More than Nib's did in his entire carreer.

 

[TeoSheva]

Anyway, for todays stage, who will challenge Busche for the win if the break stays ahead? Rohregger? Vorganov?

do you think the break will stay away?

 

[Greenflame]

Lets get your facts straight shall we? Nibali attacked once on the Etna, at the final K. Driving the pace for a short while is not attacking. Otherwise I want to nominate Sylvester Szmyd as top mountain attacker. Or Cadel Evans this years Tour, or Robert Gesink countless times, or Basso even more countless times.

On the Zoncolan, again that was not attacking, again riding own pace, as I referred to in my earlier posts, that's his style, riding own pace and not blow up by chasing explosive attacks.

On the Macgunana it was a sprint in the final hundred meters.. if we are going to count that then yes, you'll get to 'attacks'
You do realise that if you count riding at own pace / final 500 meter sprints as attacks, like you do with Nibali, that Gesink now becomes and other-worldly attacker?

Why isn't riding a hard pace attacking? That would mean Basso won the 2010 Giro without a single attack?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Pretty much yes. But then you open a whole new world of attackers uphill...then we can maybe name a list of 40 riders who attack uphill in GT's.
Then even people as Leipheimer can be counted as attackers.

I think our definitation of attacking uphill wildly differs. To me, an attack is a real acceleration, something that instantly creates a gap. There arent much people that can do that.

 

[djerkson]

Did you see Stijn Devolder yesterday? He was going for a good allround position...Oh my...Today, it's VDB time. He trains in the Sierra Nevada during the whole year. Yesterday, Belgian tv-commentators were saying that Nibali didn't do a reconnaissance of any stage or mountain...Not good for a potential winner?

 

[djerkson]

do you think the break will stay away?

No, with a mountain like the Sierra Nevada in the end, I don't think so. It's too important, especially with all the bonification seconds every day.

 

[TeoSheva]

No, with a mountain like the Sierra Nevada in the end, I don't think so. It's too important, especially with all the bonification seconds every day.

but, who will chase untile Sierra Nevada?

 

[Lanark]

Did you see Stijn Devolder yesterday? Oh my...Today, it's VDB time. He trains in the Sierra Nevada during the whole year. Yesterday, Belgian tv-commentators were saying that Nibali didn't do a reconnaissance of any stage or mountain...Not good for a potential winner?

People had been winning GT's for almost a 100 years without reconnoitering stages, untill Armstrong came along. I'm sure he'll be fine, the only stage I would think would be usefull to inspect is the Angliru stage, but if you have a good DS, he can probably tell you all you need to know.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

but, who will chase untile Sierra Nevada?

So far, nobody.

Gap now out to 7 mins 20. At the very least some team or teams will have to put in enough effort after the climb to stop the gap from going out.

 

[djerkson]

but, who will chase untile Sierra Nevada?

Lotto with Jurgen Vandewalle perhaps? Euskaltel for Anton? Liquigas maybe? They should not underestimate Rohregger, he's quite a good climber.

 

[icefire]

Did you see Stijn Devolder yesterday? He was going for a good allround position...Oh my...Today, it's VDB time. He trains in the Sierra Nevada during the whole year. Yesterday, Belgian tv-commentators were saying that Nibali didn't do a reconnaissance of any stage or mountain...Not good for a potential winner?

Same as last year. Why should he change?

To be fair, his DS mistimed his attack in Peña Cabarga and that costed him at least a few seconds to Purito that were irrelevant at the end in GC.

 

[just some guy]

So far, nobody.

Gap now out to 7 mins 20. At the very least some team or teams will have to put in enough effort after the climb to stop the gap from going out.

29 c as well if that the temp where they are on the climb in the valley will be a lot hotter

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Did you see Stijn Devolder yesterday? He was going for a good allround position...Oh my...Today, it's VDB time. He trains in the Sierra Nevada during the whole year. Yesterday, Belgian tv-commentators were saying that Nibali didn't do a reconnaissance of any stage or mountain...Not good for a potential winner?

Nibali didn't recon any mountain finish last year either I think

 

[TeoSheva]

So far, nobody.

Gap now out to 7 mins 20. At the very least some team or teams will have to put in enough effort after the climb to stop the gap from going out.

this is what I was thinking... Movistar will not chase for Lastra, and the other team don't want to do the work too early... also because they don't know how the respective leaders are going....