Vuelta a Espana Stage 9: Villacastín - Sierra de Bejar. La Covatilla 183,0 km

[cineteq]

Struggling to see how some have come to the conclusion that because Wiggins did all the work he'll be more tired than everyone else - hello? Nibali was f8cked! and those that got dropped, they're going to be less tired are they, how does that one work??

Hello!! Wiggins is not used to doing these kind of climbing efforts. Wake up buddy!

 

[Lanark]

As I said, I will still back him to out-TT all the other GC contenders, but I'm just not sure that he'll take the 2 minutes on Nibali required for the poster's assertion that he'll be in red with a lead of a minute going into the rest day. I think he'll beat Nibali, maybe stick more than a minute into him, but I'm not convinced he'll do it by 1'51" or more.

He may well do - but I would be surprised and slightly disappointed with Nibbles' performance if he did.

He did lose 1.54 to Peter Velits last year, I think Wiggins taking two minutes on Nibali is definitely possible, maybe even likely. Nibali hasn't really impressed in time trials in quite some time.

 

[Lanark]

the thing is: on the angliru keeping a steady pace is impossible. will wiggins be able to deal with that?

True, that could become the decisive point in the race. Of course the question is: who of the remaining favorites after tomorrow can? Maybe Nibali and Menchov will be the only guys close to him, they'll probably handle the Angliru better, but really good? They're no Anton or Rodriguez either.

 

[hfer07]

the thing is: on the angliru keeping a steady pace is impossible. will wiggins be able to deal with that?

+1000 exactly my sentiments-Nibali still has the upper hand on Wiggo for that type of climb though....
they both "might" lose some time to J-Rod there-but looking back at this year's zoncolan stage- Vincenzo has this canny ability to suffer & perform well on the crazy gradients.. we'll see...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

He did lose 1.54 to Peter Velits last year, I think Wiggins taking two minutes on Nibali is definitely possible, maybe even likely. Nibali hasn't really impressed in time trials in quite some time.

That was a TT in week 3 and after a rest day though. Very different recovery to the day after a mountain stage. In Annecy in 2009, the day after a tough mountain test, Wiggins put 1'23" into Nibali, and Nibali is stronger now than he was then.

Of course, stage 17 in 2009 was a much tougher stage than today, and the Annecy ITT was slightly shorter and featured a small climb.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Scarponi

 

[Parrulo]

True, that could become the decisive point in the race. Of course the question is: who of the remaining favorites after tomorrow can? Maybe Nibali and Menchov will be the only guys close to him, they'll probably handle the Angliru better, but really good? They're no Anton or Rodriguez either.

Stage 14: Lienz – Monte Zoncolan

1. Igor Anton Hernandez (ESP), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 5:04:26
2. Alberto Contador Velasco (ESP), SaxoBank-Sungard, at 33
3. Vincenzo Nibali (ITA), Liquigas-Doimo, at 40
4. Michele Scarponi (ITA), Lampre-ISD, at 1:11
5. Denis Menchov (RUS), Geox-TMC, at 1:21
6. John Gadret (FRA), Ag2r La Mondiale, at 1:38
7. Mikel Nieve Ituralde (ESP), Euskaltel-Euskadi, at 1:52
8. Hubert Dupont (FRA), Ag2r La Mondiale, at 1:55
9. Kanstantsin Sivtsov (BLR), HTC-Highroad, at 2:05
10. José Rujano Guillen (VEN), Androni Giocattoli, at 2:11
11. Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (ESP), Team Katusha, at 2:24
12. Steven Kruijswijk (NED), Rabobank Cycling Team, at 2:40
13. Przemyslaw Niemiec (POL), Lampre-ISD, at 2:57
14. Paolo Tiralongo (ITA), Astana, at 3:29
15. Peter Stetina (USA), Garmin-Cervelo, at 3:29

it seems like nibali can hold his own on the steep stuff. granted the zoncolan has less extreme variations of % but it still has some nasty turns

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

That was a TT in week 3 and after a rest day though. Very different recovery to the day after a mountain stage. In Annecy in 2009, the day after a tough mountain test, Wiggins put 1'23" into Nibali, and Nibali is stronger now than he was then.

Of course, stage 17 in 2009 was a much tougher stage than today, and the Annecy ITT was slightly shorter and featured a small climb.

Wiggins has become a much better TTer in long TTs though. He was solid Top 10 material back then, now he can actually compete with Martin on good days. Also, the 2009 TT being late in the race must have been an advantage for Nibali.

 

[Parrulo]

Wiggins has become a much better TTer in long TTs though. He was solid Top 10 material back then, now he can actually compete with Martin on good days. Also, the 2009 TT being late in the race must have been an advantage for Nibali.

are you insane in the mind?

wiggins was a pure itt rider that gradually chanced himself into a GC contender of the type that can hold on the climbs and smash it on the time trials. by losing weight to improve his climbing if anything he lost some of his time trial abilities.

 

[Descender]

No only Purito, Nieve, JVDB etc got dropped.

And Top Class riders like Rodriguez and Scarponi blowing up ? It was selective enough.

Not selective but enough to drop Rodriguez and Scarponi and put serious time into them.

Yawn.

You should just have stopped right there.

O ye of little faith

Nailed.

How much more has Wiggin's taken out of himself going from the front, than Nibali et al, struggling and eventually failing to keep up?

I'd say nothing. He'll be in red tomorrow. I just don't see Nibali staying with 50 seconds of him, or Swansong at just 23 seconds.

Very good !

Teehee I love it. Though I have to say more people took the bait at Castilla y León... this is the true sign of TGBM´s improvement! You go boy!

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

are you insane in the mind?

You are such a pleasant guy to have discussions with.
Even though what you said could be right, the results do speak a very very diffrent language.
At the very begining Wiggins was only of use in prologues. He's actually one of the most sucessfull trak racers of all time if you remember. It takes a while to transform you're abilities from short to very long efforts I guess.

 

[roundabout]

are you insane in the mind?

wiggins was a pure itt rider that gradually chanced himself into a GC contender of the type that can hold on the climbs and smash it on the time trials. by losing weight to improve his climbing if anything he lost some of his time trial abilities.

Even though it's a 'skinny' Wiggins somewhat paradoxically I agree with Rechtschreibfehler.

Or in other words he hasn't really become worse in a TT since he decided to become a GC rider.

Of course it wasn't a pure TT specialist course in the Dauphine this year.

 

[Parrulo]

You are such a pleasant guy to have discussions with.
Even though what you said could be right, the results do speak a very very diffrent language.
At the very begining Wiggins was only of use in prologues. He's actually one of the most sucessfull trak racers of all time if you remember. It takes a while to transform you're abilities from short to very long efforts I guess.

the "" suggests i was just joking on that part. . . . nice way to completely miss it.

regardless of his track success he was already a top itt of any distance rider before the tour of 2009. btw i am not suggesting it got significantly worse but losing all that weight certainly didn't help him and it didn't improve since he started focusing on GC.

if anything the last time wiggins had a chance to take a itt seriously during a later part of a GT it proved not be such a lethal weapon as it can be early in the race or in 1 week races as libertine pointed out. he still gained time on almost every1 but he didn't really destroy the rest of the GC contenders.

 

[goggalor]

are you insane in the mind?

wiggins was a pure itt rider that gradually chanced himself into a GC contender of the type that can hold on the climbs and smash it on the time trials. by losing weight to improve his climbing if anything he lost some of his time trial abilities.

In what way has he lost some of his time trialing abilities? He's been excellent in them this season.

 

[maxmartin]

LOL
Nibali is way smarter than you think, after stage 8 in the italian interview, he said he will conserve every energy he has for the time trial, I guess that is also why he fades a little in the end do not want to go to in red

expect a very good performance from Nibali in the time trial, yes he will lose time to W, but not too much

Struggling to see how some have come to the conclusion that because Wiggins did all the work he'll be more tired than everyone else - hello? Nibali was f8cked! and those that got dropped, they're going to be less tired are they, how does that one work??

 

[LaFleur]

LOL
Nibali is way smarter than you think, after stage 8 in the italian interview, he said he will conserve every energy he has for the time trial, I guess that is also why he fades a little in the end do not want to go to in red

expect a very good performance from Nibali in the time trial, yes he will lose time to W, but not too much

Not wanting to go in red? Why would he care infront of a TT?

 

[cineteq]

Not wanting to go in red? Why would he care infront of a TT?

I don't think he was talking about the jersey....

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I feel like when Wiggins improved his climbing it came at a bit of the expense of his ITT; it was still a very good ITT but it wasn't as powerful as it had been, especially over long distances. However, he has now apparently got the hang of the longer ITTs with his new climbing frame, and it doesn't look to have affected his climbing on consistent, power or less steep climbs at least. He could well have the lead tomorrow, in fact I'd go so far as to say that he probably will. But will it be by a minute? Tough call. Would that be enough to defend red? I will categorically state right now that it wouldn't be. However, if he can do a similar job to today on La Manzaneda then he has a good chance.

Actually, a Wiggins very close to the lead could make the Basque stages very interesting. Could you imagine Sky tearing the race up straight from Bilbao and getting rid of everybody's domestiques, then Wiggins attacking on the Puerto de Urkiola? 48km flat to the finish could ruin the race totally, but Wiggins TTing away with the possibility of the likes of Rodríguez having to lead the chase could make for a very interesting finale.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

LOL
Nibali is way smarter than you think, after stage 8 in the italian interview, he said he will conserve every energy he has for the time trial, I guess that is also why he fades a little in the end do not want to go to in red

expect a very good performance from Nibali in the time trial, yes he will lose time to W, but not too much

The question is how much it'll help him. He has never done anything better than Top 15 in a long and flat TT. Maybe 14th or 15th even was his best result. It would be great though if he'd manage to get in the Top 10 somehow tomorrow.

 

[cineteq]

The question is how much it'll help him. He has never done anything better than Top 15 in a long and flat TT. Maybe 14th or 15th even was his best result. It would be great though if he'd manage to get in the Top 10 somehow tomorrow.

The placing for the ITT is really irrelevant. It's how far/close he gets from Wiggins, that's all it matters.

 

[maxmartin]

not jersey, do not want to dig too deep, conserve the energy to do a good time trial tomorrow

that is the thing I am most impressed by Nibali, he has a very good sense about the big pic. and knows how to play them into his hands

Last time he attacked, gapped Anton
today he attacked gapped Jrod and Scarponi
very well planned

Not wanting to go in red? Why would he care infront of a TT?

 

[maxmartin]

if he can stay with Wiggins under 1:30 excellent
1:40 good
1:50 SOSo
2:00 Acceptable
More than two , things will get tricky

The question is how much it'll help him. He has never done anything better than Top 15 in a long and flat TT. Maybe 14th or 15th even was his best result. It would be great though if he'd manage to get in the Top 10 somehow tomorrow.

 

[meandmygitane]

You think he'll take 2 minutes out of Nibali?

It's possible - I'm not going to say it's likely or that I think it will happen - but it is certainly possible that Wiggins took a lot out of himself in that performance today, and though I'd still back his ITT to be better than most of the other GC contenders, that he doesn't gain as much from it as anticipated.

Yes, altough it depends on is freshness after today, ofc, but Last stage of the Giro (32.8km) Nibali was 1:18 after Millar.

It is not unreasonable that Wiggins will take 1:51 on Nibali over 47km but I agree that it may be a lot less, depending on how they feel.

EDIT: Late to the party it seems, you don't have to answer if you don't want to.

 

[Descender]

I feel like when Wiggins improved his climbing it came at a bit of the expense of his ITT; it was still a very good ITT but it wasn't as powerful as it had been, especially over long distances. However, he has now apparently got the hang of the longer ITTs with his new climbing frame, and it doesn't look to have affected his climbing on consistent, power or less steep climbs at least. He could well have the lead tomorrow, in fact I'd go so far as to say that he probably will. But will it be by a minute? Tough call. Would that be enough to defend red? I will categorically state right now that it wouldn't be. However, if he can do a similar job to today on La Manzaneda then he has a good chance.

Actually, a Wiggins very close to the lead could make the Basque stages very interesting. Could you imagine Sky tearing the race up straight from Bilbao and getting rid of everybody's domestiques, then Wiggins attacking on the Puerto de Urkiola? 48km flat to the finish could ruin the race totally, but Wiggins TTing away with the possibility of the likes of Rodríguez having to lead the chase could make for a very interesting finale.

I´m gonna have to call impossible on that one.

Urkiola is basically a Pena Cabarga, and other than that the stage is completely flat. How are Sky supposed to eliminate all the domestiques so convincingly that they can´t regroup and chase down Wiggins over 50 kms?

 

[cineteq]

not jersey, do not want to dig too deep, conserve the energy to do a good time trial tomorrow

that is the thing I am most impressed by Nibali, he has a very good sense about the big pic. and knows how to play them into his hands

Last time he attacked, gapped Anton
today he attacked gapped Jrod and Scarponi
very well planned

My comment was directed towards Lafleur. But, yes I agree that one smart Squalo!