Vuelta a Espana - who's going to win?

[auscyclefan94]

A week out from the third grand tour for the year and i was wondering who does everyone think is going to win? Who will come up with the big surprise and who will flop? Please tell all...

 

[badboyberty]

1st in might as well go left field, Konstantin Sitsou for the win.

Just don't ask me how or why, just think he's a bit been overlooked amongst the next generation of GT hopefuls...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Heart says Gesink, Mind says Valverde.

Sanchez will be right up there too, and I personally hope basso gets a podium.

Vino for a stage win (maybe 2, would like to see him win out side a TT)

 

[ingsve]

1st in might as well go left field, Konstantin Sitsou for the win.

Just don't ask me how or why, just think he's a bit been overlooked amongst the next generation of GT hopefuls...

Didn't Siutsou brake a collarbone recently in Tour of Poland? Don't know if he will be OK to start or at least be in good shape for the vuelta...

 

[Steampunk]

Heart says Gesink, Mind says Valverde.

Sanchez will be right up there too, and I personally hope basso gets a podium.

Vino for a stage win (maybe 2, would like to see him win out side a TT)

Basically sums up my thoughts. The first real climb ought to distinguish between Valverde and Sanchez as to who's in better form (leaning towards Sanchez). Would love to see Gesink have a good ride and maybe podium finish.

 

[Nevermind]

Is Basso riding to win or to prepare for the worlds??? Haven't been following that lately. Of all the contenders you named, I doubt Schleck or Evans will ride to win, both are aiming for the worlds. Valverde has been going strong all season long so it's hard not to consider him especially since he was left out of the TDF. The course, with lots of MTF might suit a guy like Gesink, you guys tell me how he'll handle the little TTing of the Vuelta.

After looking at the course, I think we can expect an animated race, with lots of attacking with all those mountains. Maybe more like this year's Giro and hopefully not like the TDF, where we had very few great moments.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Basso wants to win, I have my doubht he will even ride the WCs.
Gesink can definately climb with the best, it just his fitness that is the biggest question, has he recovered enough from his broken wrist? time will tell, he hasn't rode a competitive tt since the tour either, otherwise he can time trial ok. Maybe lose 1-2 mins to the better time trialers, but would normally be within a minute (maybe beat some) of the rider's contesting the win at the vuelta.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Is Basso riding to win or to prepare for the worlds??? Haven't been following that lately. Of all the contenders you named, I doubt Schleck or Evans will ride to win, both are aiming for the worlds. Valverde has been going strong all season long so it's hard not to consider him especially since he was left out of the TDF. The course, with lots of MTF might suit a guy like Gesink, you guys tell me how he'll handle the little TTing of the Vuelta.

After looking at the course, I think we can expect an animated race, with lots of attacking with all those mountains. Maybe more like this year's Giro and hopefully not like the TDF, where we had very few great moments.

Schleck and Evans have both said they'll take it as it comes. If their opportunity arises to contend or win La Vuelta, they'll take it. Valverde has been flying under the radar and he may finally be consistent over 3 weeks to win. Sanchez my pick though. I also hope you are right that it will be a more exciting race than the Tour.This may be a bit much to ask but i hope it is even better than the Giro!

 

[Anonymous]

can we have a who do we want to win poll as well..

ive had to vote for valverde.. sadly proof that cheats really do prosper.. i have little enthusiasm for the vuelta, knowing that someone currently banned by at least one federation may win.. :/

 

[usedtobefast]

can we have a who do we want to win poll as well..

ive had to vote for valverde.. sadly proof that cheats really do prosper.. i have little enthusiasm for the vuelta, knowing that someone currently banned by at least one federation may win.. :/

cheer up dim, it's all politics.

 

[Anonymous]

cheer up dim, it's all politics.

i will be cheery when he falls off and breaks his collarbone.. lol

 

[tretow95]

i think Mosquera because he was the only one who could really go with contador last year. he bases his year around the vuelta and has not had a long season.

 

[msjett]

i will be cheery when he falls off and breaks his collarbone.. lol

lol....perhaps you could just hope for a few mechanical issues at the most crucial moments....

 

[mistahsinclair]

Valverde should be good enough to win a Grand Tour...except for one stage every time.

He'll be close, crack once then struggle to stay near the podium.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Valverde should be good enough to win a Grand Tour...except for one stage every time.

He'll be close, crack once then struggle to stay near the podium.

That's his problem, he would of won the 06 Vuelta if he didn't crack so easily in the final mountain stage. If A Schleck and Evans don't go to hard at the vuelta then my pick will be:

Sanchez
Basso
Valverde/Gesink

 

[Mellow Velo]

Ivan Basso is starting to look like he's getting into good form, prior to the Vuelta.
5th, today, in the Trofeo Melinda uphill finish, behind Visconti, Garzelli and Gianpaolo Caruso.
However, he was the guy who tore up the lead group.

Don't dislike Valverde, but I don't think him winning, will do the sport any favours. Well, outside of Spain, at least.

Hope the foreign challenge, will be just that, for once.

 

[knorensnor]

I'd like to see Basso win, however the field looks nice with evans, schleck, vino, ... the spanish trio - valverde, sanchez, mosquera - will be close. Does anyone know something about Igor Anton? I'd like to see him battle for a few stagewins.

 

[The Barb]

I have a (possibly stupid) question .......

Suppose in the next few months Valverde is banned everywhere (for, say, two years) because of Puerto. Suppose also, that he knows it is coming and this is his last chance to win a Grand Tour before he serves his time.

Wouldn't that provide huge motivation to dope to the max, knowing that if he gets caught he will get a sentence in all likelihood concurrent with the Puerto sentence and it therefore won't mean anything?

Or would they bang another two years on and make it four years if he tested positive in the Vuelta?

 

[screaming fist]

I have a (possibly stupid) question .......

Suppose in the next few months Valverde is banned everywhere (for, say, two years) because of Puerto. Suppose also, that he knows it is coming and this is his last chance to win a Grand Tour before he serves his time.

Wouldn't that provide huge motivation to dope to the max, knowing that if he gets caught he will get a sentence in all likelihood concurrent with the Puerto sentence and it therefore won't mean anything?

Or would they bang another two years on and make it four years if he tested positive in the Vuelta?

He would be in for even more, eight years to a lifetime ban.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Gesink looked pretty strong over the last week (Limousin and Plouay) and i really think he could podium at the vuelta.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I don't know what to think about Valverde at this point. He should have been suspended over three years ago. Along with a slew of others. Sigh.

I'm going to cheer for Sammy Sanchez. Even though his team has had some problems, I like the way he rides.

Mosquera or Gesink would be a good pick too.

Me thinks Schleck is training for the World's, with the Vuelta being an afterthought. Grrrr.

Basso. Not sure what to think of him. I like the guy personally, and love his aggressive style - he goes for it during an era when most riders just sit on wheels and wait. But his past isn't very comforting. Still, if he wins, I'll be okay. Would rather just see him on the podium.

Though he served his suspension, I'm hoping Vino gets a DNF.

Wondering if Tom Danielson will ride well, there seems to be no pressure on him - like people hardly know he's even in the race, and he tends to ride best under such conditions. Plus, the course suits him.

 

[Hammerhed]

I think that Evans, Valverde, and Sanchez should be the most motivated of all the big hitters: Valverde because he was effectively excluded from the Tour and realistically this may be his last chance to make a showing for the next two years; Sanchez because he has targeted this race, maybe has the team, and is due darnit(!); and Evans, because after the debacle of the TdF, he probably has more to prove than any other bike rider on the planet--don't you guys agree?--and a world championship jersey is kind of...hollow? I mean, so you won a race...so what? I think Ballan is a good example: A few years ago, he was on ready, on fire even, fueled for the journey to climb higher and stay there for a while, but he sputtered and moved into the breakdown lane. Then he kinda steals the WC's, amidst major acrimony from Cunego, but so what? Yeah, yeah, he wins a stage and the overall in the Tour of freaking Poland! It was a cool race and a good victory, but , but...yeah. Sorry for the mini rant, really.

So Evans has a lot to prove, to the world, to his fans who so want him to win something big, but mostly to himself. I don't know if he's worn out still from the Tour or if he has held his form, or if he has regained the awesome shape he was in prior to the Tour, but if he has, then he can win though the Spaniards will be arrayed against him. Go Caddle go. Go Caddle, go go go!

 

[Sheltowee]

I'm hoping that Danielson wins, but I think Sammy's the guy.

 

[issoisso]

Caisse management says:

"Hey Joaquim....remember how we promised you you'd be GC leader for the Vuelta and the Giro and then we completely f***ed up your Giro preparations giving you no chance of showing up at an acceptable level?

Then remember how we promised we'd make amends by not messing with your Vuelta preparations?

Yeah....we're gonna need you to not be team leader. And if you could just go ahead and....work for Valverde.....that'd be greeeeeeat...."

A cookie for anyone who gets the pop culture reference.

EDIT: The above is (obviously paraphrased) from an interview with J.Rodríguez earlier today.

 

[karlboss]

I can't think of many riders who would sacrifice a grand tour for a worlds jersey. I'm not sure but in order the biggest prizes appear to be france italy spain then a toss up, worlds, olympics, paris roubaix.