Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2015 (6-11 april)

[Jspear]

Re:

Hopefully tomorrow somebody attacks before the last climb. I don't want to see an uphill sprint. At least on the penultimate climb or even better the first time up the Alto de Aia 20km to go.

Quintana and Henao to fulfill your wishes.

 

[The Barb]

I find the betting markets curious for this one. Henao is a little better favoured than Quintana for this stage, yet Quintana massively favoured for the overall (roughly even money Quintana vs 5-1 for Henao). The obvious conclusion is therefore that the markets think Quintana will be significantly superior in tomorrow's time trial. I am surprised by this. In this form and on this time trial course Henao can time trial at least as well as Quintana. I'm loving Henao's odds for the GC.

 

[jens_attacks]

i'm loving spilak for the overall.

 

[Jagartrott]

If Purito wins again today, the parcours builders should think if they provided the riders with a balanced route.
Tomorrow in the TT again over the same hill - I'm not particularly liking this.

 

[TomekA]

Re: Re:

That's your opinion. I hit you with some truth bombs but you don't like it. 2013 Bertie was not in good form/health. Quintana could not cope with Sky.

This is not really true. Quintana lost 2 minutes on first mountain stage to Froome because he attacked 37km before the finish (he was not a leader of Movistar at that point). He also attacked 13km before Mount Ventoux finish and lost half a minute to Froome. Espiecially in the first mountain stage he would be a lot better with different strategy (staying with Sky until the last attack of Froome).

He also lost more than 4 minutes in time trials.

So that's more than 6 minutes lost because of time trials, risky strategy (Ventoux) and kamikadze attack (first mountain stage).

 

[manafana]

Mollema has said he was unlucky 2days ago and yesterday he was just denied maybe he can strike tonight, he has always had this potential but shown in fits and starts a good result here after a good season so far would really mean this move has worked out.

 

[manafana]

Re:

I find the betting markets curious for this one. Henao is a little better favoured than Quintana for this stage, yet Quintana massively favoured for the overall (roughly even money Quintana vs 5-1 for Henao). The obvious conclusion is therefore that the markets think Quintana will be significantly superior in tomorrow's time trial. I am surprised by this. In this form and on this time trial course Henao can time trial at least as well as Quintana. I'm loving Henao's odds for the GC.

I get the point but think the overall price factors in that Henao is far more likely to crack than Quintana and fall off, in terms of tt I think they are favouring Quintana a little more but maybe not as much as outright prices suggest.

 

[DBotero]

Re:

I find the betting markets curious for this one. Henao is a little better favoured than Quintana for this stage, yet Quintana massively favoured for the overall (roughly even money Quintana vs 5-1 for Henao). The obvious conclusion is therefore that the markets think Quintana will be significantly superior in tomorrow's time trial. I am surprised by this. In this form and on this time trial course Henao can time trial at least as well as Quintana. I'm loving Henao's odds for the GC.

Maybe they expect the same scenario as in 2013,when Quintana made a great ITT beating Henao(leader of GC) and Porte.

 

[SafeBet]

This could a stage for the break if the are some strong riders in it.
Wellens is trying to escape.

 

[Angliru]

Re:

If Purito wins again today, the parcours builders should think if they provided the riders with a balanced route.
Tomorrow in the TT again over the same hill - I'm not particularly liking this.

The route is balanced enough IMO. Katusha and Purito have just ridden a smarter race than their rivals.

 

[SafeBet]

Seems like there are 30 riders in the break. Gap is almost 2 minutes already.

 

[Flamin]

Awesome. Any dangerous GC riders?

 

[SafeBet]

Agnoli, Taaramae, Gallopin, Vervaeke, Wellens, T Martin, De La Cruz, Bono, Slagter, Danielson, Arredondo, Pires, Sorensen, Dennis, Visconti, Anton, Betancur, Montaguti, Cherel, Impey, Reichenbach, Van Der Lijke, Landa, Fraile, Molina, Txurruka, Bagot & Rossetto.

Don't know who the closest in GC is.

 

[Jagartrott]

Not really any dangerous names regarding GC I think.
Surprising that Tony is doing this the day before the TT. Perhaps he thinks he stands no chance there?

 

[SafeBet]

Landa 29th at 5:08 is the closest in GC. So yeah, not a threat.

 

[Netserk]

Obvious Betancur win is obvious _O_

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Obvious Betancur win is obvious _O_

True brother,the time has come

 

[Flamin]

Re:

Landa 29th at 5:08 is the closest in GC. So yeah, not a threat.

Ah, pity. But it will still provide good racing probably.

Obvious Betancur win is obvious _O_

Betancur to be dropped on that 1st category climb

 

[burning]

Anton, Betancur and Txurruka in the same break, this is like a wet dream.

 

[Dedelou]

Re:

Anton, Betancur and Txurruka in the same break, this is like a wet dream.

and Panzerwagon to pull them on the flats? it's a race within the race

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Really strong break!

It's a shame that guys like Landa, Wellens and Slagter aren't just a little bit closer in the GC. Coul've been a really epic stage with this break, but it should still be good.

 

[greenedge]

If the break survives, Arredondo FTW.

 

[wirral]

Molard @ 3'32" is the best in GC in the break.

 

[lemon cheese cake]

Live coverage has just started. At least on Eurosport UK.

Stage looks pretty tough.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

It's looking pretty good so far for the break, but 3 times over Aia is brutal.