• We're giving away a Cyclingnews water bottle! Find out more here!

Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

Page 2 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Arredondo said:
roundabout said:
Last year he was in horrible shape because of the Giro crash.

This year he was in horrible shape because of his horrible shape.

Although it is quite funny to read you talking him up after the Dauphine.
He won two stages dude :eek:

And he dropped Contador/Nibali/Mollema/Gesink on Alpe d'Huez yesterday. But hey, if you don't follow the Tour, don't say anything :p
Take Nibali out of your list. He lost 1 minute on the beginning due to a mechanical and had to ride a pretty long way without anyone helping him. But hey, if you don't follow the Tour, don't say anything :p :p
 
Aug 16, 2013
6,421
0
0
Gigs_98 said:
Arredondo said:
roundabout said:
Last year he was in horrible shape because of the Giro crash.

This year he was in horrible shape because of his horrible shape.

Although it is quite funny to read you talking him up after the Dauphine.
He won two stages dude :eek:

And he dropped Contador/Nibali/Mollema/Gesink on Alpe d'Huez yesterday. But hey, if you don't follow the Tour, don't say anything :p
Take Nibali out of your list. He lost 1 minute on the beginning due to a mechanical and had to ride a pretty long way without anyone helping him. But hey, if you don't follow the Tour, don't say anything :p :p
I'm not saying Nibali had no bad luck. But did he drop him?

But hey, if you can't read, don't read :D
 
Aug 4, 2010
9,234
0
0
Re:

Arredondo said:
1. Quintana
2. Landa
3. Valverde or Purito

Purito will be in the mix in the Vuelta. That race just suits him way more then a Tour in this stage of his career. Last year he was in an horrible shape in the Tour, and he still finished 4th in Spain. He should be fine.
quintana might demolish them on stage 11 but other than that its a horrible route for him ...too borish valverdish puritish :eek:

btw

:p
 
Apr 4, 2010
1,979
0
0
Arredondo said:
Gigs_98 said:
Arredondo said:
roundabout said:
Last year he was in horrible shape because of the Giro crash.

This year he was in horrible shape because of his horrible shape.

Although it is quite funny to read you talking him up after the Dauphine.
He won two stages dude :eek:

And he dropped Contador/Nibali/Mollema/Gesink on Alpe d'Huez yesterday. But hey, if you don't follow the Tour, don't say anything :p
Take Nibali out of your list. He lost 1 minute on the beginning due to a mechanical and had to ride a pretty long way without anyone helping him. But hey, if you don't follow the Tour, don't say anything :p :p
I'm not saying Nibali had no bad luck. But did he drop him?

But hey, if you can't read, don't read :D

HAHAHAHAHA
 
If Nibali rides the vuelta I give him a good chance of being strong because he became better and better at the end of the tour. On the last mountain stages he was almost as good as froome who took 4.5 minutes on him on the first mtf.

Froome how ever might have problems to fight for the gc. He became worse and worse and without his teammates he might even have lost the tour in the last mountain stage.

Quintana could be good too but I see two problems for him. He normally gets his time in the third week but there isn't one single mtf in the 3rd week only downhill finishes so it might be difficult for him to gain time. The second one is that I think that he will loose a lot of time in the ITT after a long tour. However that problem is maybe not even that big because most of the gc riders who will ride the vuelta aren't very good TT'ers

Aru and Landa could be strong but both are hard to predict. Last year Aru had problems against guys like valverde so he probably has to be better this year if he wants to win. However if Landa is in his giro shape he could really be one of the, if not the strongest climber of the race. His problem will obviously be the TT but it isn't that long

Valverde and Purito are always good in the vuelta but I just don't see them winning. Just my personal feeling

I didnt think that I would ever say that but for me Pozzo is a podium pick. The only gc rider without a gt in his legs, and he had a pretty good shape before his crash. I think he will be great to watch in the mountains and I hope for another good ITT by him
 
Apr 17, 2014
363
0
0
Pretty open GC and I hope that riders like Nibali, Froome etc all go. I don't like the route- not enough difficult mountains :( In my opinon, I can't see any of the riders who fought for GC at the tour winning the race (podium at best), but I could easily see Purito winning it if he can do a decent TT. The lack of stages where the climbers can make a real difference coupled with the long flat TT makes it really difficult to pick a winner. Only Froome, Nibs and possibly Piti (off the top of my head) could gain a serious advantage over the pure climbers- and there form might be questionable following the tour. All I hope for is that most of them turn up and we have a great, close GC battle. Btw any chance Sagan goes to try and finally get a stage win!? :D
 
Jul 20, 2015
393
0
0
Love the Vuelta and looking forward to this one. Is it confirmed Nibali will lead Astana and what does Aru & Landa make of it. You would presume Movistar will have a duel attack if Quintana enters as can't see Valverde being a super domestic in his home GT.
 
Right now, Valverde seems like the safest bet. He has proven more than once to be better in the Vuelta than in the Tour when riding them both the same year.

Giro was brutal and those who went for the GC there are unlikely to be as good in the Vuelta as they were in the Giro.

Quintana will be a dark horse as no-one knows how he will fare in second consecutive GT in same year.

I have no idea if Nibali just messed up timing of his form this year or were there additional problems, so its impossible to predict how he would perform in the Vuelta if he takes part at all.

I would be surprised if Froome does go to the Vuelta. Can't see anything motivating him doing that, specially given the way he struggled at the end of the Tour. He has tried Vuelta after doing Tour before and wasn't even close to winning it despite coming out of the Tour in much better shape than this year.
 
There is actually a lot of climbing in the first week and a half, and the 3rd week only really has a 39km (flat) ITT with 1 mountain finish. Therefore, it's more likely than usual that someone who rode the Tour has a chance of winning. Then again, I doubt Froome or Quintana can win, given how hard they rode the Tour, but this looks like the best chance for someone to do the Tour-Vuelta double in a long time.

I'll go for:

Aru
Quintana
Froome
Majka
Landa
 
Apr 17, 2014
363
0
0
What stages can the pure climbers really make a difference and get some time gaps? Stage 11 looks brutal, but where else?
 
if aru and landa are at their giro form,one of them should win the race even with TT...all other contenders seem to be after TdF,tired and will be basically 5-7 minutes slower than they would be fresh
 
Stage 1: 7.4km TTT, Gaps should be small

Stage 2:


Possible gaps between GC contenders, potentially up to about 15 seconds. Some of the pretenders will be exposed.

Stage 3: Sprinters

Stage 4: A 190m altitude gain appears twice in the final 10km, and the final is at the top of this kick. Perfect stage for someone like Bling, not much for GC tho

Stage 5: Sprinters again, with a false flat at the end, enough to give Kittel a disadvantage but not enough to drop him. No way there are gaps in GC apart from a crash.

Stage 6:


Purito's first stage win. A very sharp ramp at the end that will bring out the GC contenders. Gaps similar to Mur de Huy in TdF potentially.

Stage 7:


First proper summit finish. Fairly steep, with steepest sections between 8km and 2km to go, shallowing off a bit towards the end.

Stage 8: Possibly one for the breakaway, possibly for the sprinters. No GC action today

Stage 9:


Super steep finish. Too hard for a pure puncher such as Kwiat or Phil Gil imo, important day for GC.

Stage 10: Perfect day for the breakaway to finish off the week. Cat 2 climb peaking off with 24km to go.
 
Re:

jsem94 said:
It's going to be really unpredictable. I will be anticipating this like crazy. The flat ITT will be key. Froome has a legit chance to do the Tour-Vuelta double.
Froome has said - and results reflect - that he hasn't even practised TTing much over the last year or so.
 

rm7

Mar 14, 2015
672
0
0
Nibali, Quintana, Valverde and Purito are deifinetely the guys comming best of out of this Tour. Three of them only got better in the 3rd week and Purito didn't do the GC, and the Vuelta suits him.

Froome faded, hmmm.. Fatigue? Doesn't think he'll do the Vuelta, but it could be the best chance of winning it in a long time. Neither of the top4 guys come into the Vuelta fresh.

The 2nd tier GC guys all got the Giro in their legs too, and are a level below.

Could be a epic Vuelta with the best from the Giro (fresh) vs the best from the Tour (fatigued, but better riders).

It could also be a Valverde, JRod, Aru, Landa, Poz, Majka...
 
PremierAndrew said:
Stage 1: 7.4km TTT, Gaps should be small

Stage 2:


Possible gaps between GC contenders, potentially up to about 15 seconds. Some of the pretenders will be exposed.

Stage 3: Sprinters

Stage 4: A 190m altitude gain appears twice in the final 10km, and the final is at the top of this kick. Perfect stage for someone like Bling, not much for GC tho

Stage 5: Sprinters again, with a false flat at the end, enough to give Kittel a disadvantage but not enough to drop him. No way there are gaps in GC apart from a crash.

Stage 6:


Purito's first stage win. A very sharp ramp at the end that will bring out the GC contenders. Gaps similar to Mur de Huy in TdF potentially.

Stage 7:


First proper summit finish. Fairly steep, with steepest sections between 8km and 2km to go, shallowing off a bit towards the end.

Stage 8: Possibly one for the breakaway, possibly for the sprinters. No GC action today

Stage 9:


Super steep finish. Too hard for a pure puncher such as Kwiat or Phil Gil imo, important day for GC.

Stage 10: Perfect day for the breakaway to finish off the week. Cat 2 climb peaking off with 24km to go.
Good summary, the first half of the race is pretty bad but the second half is quite good with stages 11, 16 and 20 especially plus a nice length of TT.

Might be Van Garderen's best chance of challenging for a GT seeing he must be fresher than they others who did the whole Tour except for perhaps Rodriguez. Still I doubt he has the quality to win it.

I doubt Froome can back up, Quintana really forced him to go very deep on the last two mountains stages, he would have nothing left.
Valverde has been better at the Vuelta than the Tour previously but he has never done so well at the Tour before and he seemed to give it his all. Still he will be trying to win it.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS