Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[Carols]

Re:

What difference does it make if he's leaving? He'll be in light blue for the Vuelta and for the rest of the year. If he's the strongest, he should lead. Of course, I do know things don't always work that way.

Usually they don't.....

 

[vedrafjord]

If Sky had half a brain they'd give Froome a holiday and give some of their many climbers a free run, then support whoever shows they have the legs in the first couple of uphill finishes. If...

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

What stages can the pure climbers really make a difference and get some time gaps? Stage 11 looks brutal, but where else?

Stage 16 as well.

 

[Escarabajo]

Valverde vs J.Rod should be good,i think one of them can win it.Froome and Nibali won't show up,Landa will do domestique duty for Aru who will be one of the challengers alongside Majka.I hope Sky will try Henao as a leader this Vuelta.

I think this is Henao last chance to show something in a GT.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Am I going crazy or did nobody mention Plaza Molina yet?

Screw Froome and Valverde etc, I hope we have a weird one again. Some crazy outcome when someone like Plaza or Arroyo ends up in a break and hangs on to win.
I know it will never happen but I can dream.

You mean like when Horner won?

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Valverde, vanGard, Majka are my picks if Froome and Nibali don't show up. Stage 10 is a killer but a bit early. Stage 20 is good for a long raid but not against a strong team. Stage 16 and the very flat post rest day Stage 17 TT will likely crown the winner.

You mean stage 11?

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Pozzovivo definitely is a dark horse for the overall victory. He was in the shape of his live until his crash at the Giro. Also, he always starts a grand tour like fireworks before fading away in the last week. This time the Vuelta basically is over after 2 weeks. It depends on whether he can pull out a fantastic tt again.

Nibali won't ride. Aru and Landa are fresher and peaked for this. No space for Nibali imho.

Aru is the big favorite. This time he hasn't been ill and should carry his peak shape with him. Also the steep walls in Spain should favor him.

Landa has got to slave again. But I doubt he is gonna hold back this time if he climbs stronger than Aru again. Aru really has to earn his leadership this time.

Froome, Quintana, Valverde, Purito are all tired from the Tour. They won't be pack fodder if they go, but except maybe Quintana they should be too worse to take the win.

I got no clue about Majka to be honest. He should be a bit tired too, but seems to have a great recovery. That said even if he was fresh I don't know his level against the others. Giro 2014 seems years away in terms of his development.

Bardet just really got back in decent shape towards the end of the Tour. Maybe Ag2r can field both him and Pozzo here as dark horses and try to win the race. The steep walls normally should favor his explosivness as well.

In an Interview that was published in La Gazzetta yesterday Nibali said that he'll ride the Vuelta, but he'll just try have fun, the team is probably almost forcing him to ride it.
I don't know about Majka, he'll probably try to win Poland before the Vuelta, but he has shown great recovery before so who really knows.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Valverde, vanGard, Majka are my picks if Froome and Nibali don't show up. Stage 10 is a killer but a bit early. Stage 20 is good for a long raid but not against a strong team. Stage 16 and the very flat post rest day Stage 17 TT will likely crown the winner.

You mean stage 11?

Yep, thanks. The early monster:

It may catch a few guys off guard coming off a rest day. Definitively a stage were the Vuelta could be lost, but I don't see it as the stage it will be won.

 

[AA_ESP]

Re: Re:

In an Interview that was published in La Gazzetta yesterday Nibali said that he'll ride the Vuelta, but he'll just try have fun, the team is probably almost forcing him to ride it.

A rider of the quality of Nibali maybe riding for fun but he will also be riding to win. No doubt about that. That is what champions are all about. At the Giro there was obviously a little bit of tension between Aru and Landa, now we can add Nibali to the pot of ingredients, lets see what the final result is. Add a little Vino and I'm sure team morale, bonding, will be OK.

 

[Guybrush]

How fat is Betancur right now?

 

[AA_ESP]

Re: Re:

Yep, thanks. The early monster:

It may catch a few guys off guard coming off a rest day. Definitively a stage were the Vuelta could be lost, but I don't see it as the stage it will be won.

Like the smile of a Great White, and just as scary.

 

[saunaking]

Re:

How fat is Betancur right now?

 

[tristecsinamigos]

Re:

How fat is Betancur right now?

He was supposed to be at the Pan Am games in Toronto like 3 days ago, to compete at the road event. Some people say he was expected at the airport but he didn't show up, don't know if it's just gossip.

 

[jsem94]

It's the last chance for Valverde to win a GT,i think they'll fully support him and only if he's bad Quintana will step up.

Valverde already has a GT under his belt. The Vuelta that Cadel lost because of some BS .

 

[DBotero]

It's the last chance for Valverde to win a GT,i think they'll fully support him and only if he's bad Quintana will step up.

Valverde already has a GT under his belt. The Vuelta that Cadel lost because of some BS .

Where did i said he didn't won one

 

[Guybrush]

It's the last chance for Valverde to win another GT,i think they'll fully support him and only if he's bad Quintana will step up.

Valverde already has a GT under his belt. The Vuelta that Cadel lost because of some BS .

Where did i said he didn't won one

fixed

 

[DBotero]

It's the last chance for Valverde to win another GT,i think they'll fully support him and only if he's bad Quintana will step up.

Valverde already has a GT under his belt. The Vuelta that Cadel lost because of some BS .

Where did i said he didn't won one

fixed

Not necessarily.Maybe i was analyzing the possibility for him to win a GT these days,at his young age of 35.

 

[classicomano]

Re:

How fat is Betancur right now?

Froome who?

 

[Guybrush]

Re: Re:

How fat is Betancur right now?

Froome who?

hey! great news! that's my man for next vuelta

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

How fat is Betancur right now?

he looked pretty good 3 weeks ago (post giro shape), I dont know how he looks right now tho.I hope he will return to Europe soon

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Yep, thanks. The early monster:

It may catch a few guys off guard coming off a rest day. Definitively a stage were the Vuelta could be lost, but I don't see it as the stage it will be won.

I know you already wrote that you don't think the vuelta will be won there but I just have to say again that I think soooooo many people overrate this stage. This on stage 20, okay we would maybe have some fun, but on stage 11 this stage will be crap. This is the 2nd really serious mtf and besides some little gaps on the one or other uphill finish I expect only tiny time gaps up to this stage. Maybe that will change here but all these great passes in andorra that could normally be used for attacks will be unnecessary because nobody will be stupid enough to risk his gc position with a crazy 40k long range attack from the Collada de la Galina. I like that the vuelta tries to go away of single climb stages but to put the hardest one of the few ones in this vuelta on stage 11 is a real waste.
Better wait for this one:

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

How fat is Betancur right now?

Froome who?

I wondered when was he having the baby.

 

[orangerider]

Froome doesn't seem to be motivated enough and his form was clearly on the decline. I doubt he'll enter, as it would tarnish his image if he did poorly in it. Majka doesn't seem to have what it takes this year and will probably resort to stage hunting. Piti should be good but this Tour really did a number of his energy efforts. Still, I'd choose Piti over anyone else over the popular favorites. I think, though, they'll be some surprise and some unknown ends up winning it.

 

[Sasquatch]

If people are thinking a Horner type win this year then look no further than.......Arroyo.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Froome doesn't seem to be motivated enough and his form was clearly on the decline. I doubt he'll enter, as it would tarnish his image if he did poorly in it. Majka doesn't seem to have what it takes this year and will probably resort to stage hunting. Piti should be good but this Tour really did a number of his energy efforts. Still, I'd choose Piti over anyone else over the popular favorites. I think, though, they'll be some surprise and some unknown ends up winning it.

Valverde dug very deep in last years Tour as well and still did good in the Vuelta. In the past he hasn't had much trouble doing a good Vuelta after the Tour. His form wasn't even at it's highest in the beginning of the Tour; it's not like he has been sustaining his top form for a long time.