Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[robin440]

will zakharin ride?

 

[Marco Pantani]

The route suits Bala very much. But still there are two or three stages that could turn the race upside down. I go with Quintana.

 

[JRTK73]

The final climb on stage 16 is very crazy. I think that stage is going to create some big gaps between the contenders. It looks a good one for Quintana but should really catch those who have tired legs out.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

In an Interview that was published in La Gazzetta yesterday Nibali said that he'll ride the Vuelta, but he'll just try have fun, the team is probably almost forcing him to ride it.

A rider of the quality of Nibali maybe riding for fun but he will also be riding to win. No doubt about that. That is what champions are all about. At the Giro there was obviously a little bit of tension between Aru and Landa, now we can add Nibali to the pot of ingredients, lets see what the final result is. Add a little Vino and I'm sure team morale, bonding, will be OK.

Nibali also said he was not riding for the GC before Vuelta 13. I don't believe him.

 

[greenedge]

Astana to claim 1-2-3.

 

[robin440]

+ fuglsang 4th

 

[DBotero]

Re:

will zakharin ride?

zakarin ilnur ‏@IlnurZakarin Jul 1 Moscow, Russia

@nivalialpoder hi. I'm not going to Vuelta Spagna this year

 

[SafeBet]

Damn, Zakarin was my dark horse for the podium.

 

[reubenr]

My pick would be Quintana, but the time trial is like an invitation to Froome, who seems to me bent on proving something. I did not think he won the TDF, but rather it seemed more like Quintana lost it in the first week, when the peleton was split, which seems to happen a lot to Movistar. If Quintana doesn't win, then I would like to see Majka, but on the other hand, I would prefer to see Nibali win, if Froome rides and Quintana doesn't have a good time trial. Basically, I want everything, but more than that I am hoping for a good race, unlike the TDF, in which no one really attacked. It was not a very well animated race. One of the problems is that the "mountains" are a little too much to promote animation. They beg for survival tactics and a pound or two of something extra. Although I am much older, I have only watched the race for about 40 years, and it seems to have gotten less exciting over time. Perhaps it is me, but the routes seem not well designed for daring riding. One of the most exciting races of recent memory was the Vuelta that Contador won and Rodrigquez lost. It was a very daring attack that was very predictable in a way because it was possible. Most of the stages in the TDF do not allow for much other than break aways of the "we'll let them go" type, group sprints and herculean climbs, the order of which leaves a lot to be desired and really retards great racing, in my totally biased opinion. I like surprises. There were none, except maybe Cummings' victory, although I must say that Sagan was awesome to watch, even if he never won. He was always there, animating the race.

 

[bassano]

problem for riders with Tour in legs could be very hard 1st week, they can loose minutes there
also I think froome is not going to ride Vuelta, Nibali maybe but I think Aru will be more fresh
Valverde will be tired in my opinion, not sure if Rodriguez will be still GC rider, I expected from him little more on tour
Quintana hard to say, he seemed to be fresh in Alps then Froome

 

[Metabolol]

That really sucks that Zakarin isn't going to the Vuelta.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

As long as we don't have another old Spanish armada on the top podium spots.
Give me some new new names please...

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

problem for riders with Tour in legs could be very hard 1st week, they can loose minutes there
also I think froome is not going to ride Vuelta, Nibali maybe but I think Aru will be more fresh
Valverde will be tired in my opinion, not sure if Rodriguez will be still GC rider, I expected from him little more on tour
Quintana hard to say, he seemed to be fresh in Alps then Froome

A hard first week suits those who did Tdf - the fatigue will be there but nothing like it will be during the 3rd week

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Damn, Zakarin was my dark horse for the podium.

And my odd Vuelta winner
This year we need another odd Vuelta winner, Valls was my pick after he broke Froome's record on Green Mountain, but he wasn't very good durning th Tour.
Hopefully Tommy D will ride the Vuelta and become Papi 2.0

 

[Metabolol]

Re:

My pick would be Quintana, but the time trial is like an invitation to Froome, who seems to me bent on proving something. I did not think he won the TDF, but rather it seemed more like Quintana lost it in the first week, when the peleton was split, which seems to happen a lot to Movistar. If Quintana doesn't win, then I would like to see Majka, but on the other hand, I would prefer to see Nibali win, if Froome rides and Quintana doesn't have a good time trial. Basically, I want everything, but more than that I am hoping for a good race, unlike the TDF, in which no one really attacked. It was not a very well animated race. One of the problems is that the "mountains" are a little too much to promote animation. They beg for survival tactics and a pound or two of something extra. Although I am much older, I have only watched the race for about 40 years, and it seems to have gotten less exciting over time. Perhaps it is me, but the routes seem not well designed for daring riding. One of the most exciting races of recent memory was the Vuelta that Contador won and Rodrigquez lost. It was a very daring attack that was very predictable in a way because it was possible. Most of the stages in the TDF do not allow for much other than break aways of the "we'll let them go" type, group sprints and herculean climbs, the order of which leaves a lot to be desired and really retards great racing, in my totally biased opinion. I like surprises. There were none, except maybe Cummings' victory, although I must say that Sagan was awesome to watch, even if he never won. He was always there, animating the race.

I think it has more to do with everything being more competitive and calculated. Increased professionalization has ruined the entertainment value of many sports.

 

[reubenr]

Re: Re:

My pick would be Quintana, but the time trial is like an invitation to Froome, who seems to me bent on proving something. I did not think he won the TDF, but rather it seemed more like Quintana lost it in the first week, when the peleton was split, which seems to happen a lot to Movistar. If Quintana doesn't win, then I would like to see Majka, but on the other hand, I would prefer to see Nibali win, if Froome rides and Quintana doesn't have a good time trial. Basically, I want everything, but more than that I am hoping for a good race, unlike the TDF, in which no one really attacked. It was not a very well animated race. One of the problems is that the "mountains" are a little too much to promote animation. They beg for survival tactics and a pound or two of something extra. Although I am much older, I have only watched the race for about 40 years, and it seems to have gotten less exciting over time. Perhaps it is me, but the routes seem not well designed for daring riding. One of the most exciting races of recent memory was the Vuelta that Contador won and Rodrigquez lost. It was a very daring attack that was very predictable in a way because it was possible. Most of the stages in the TDF do not allow for much other than break aways of the "we'll let them go" type, group sprints and herculean climbs, the order of which leaves a lot to be desired and really retards great racing, in my totally biased opinion. I like surprises. There were none, except maybe Cummings' victory, although I must say that Sagan was awesome to watch, even if he never won. He was always there, animating the race.

I think it has more to do with everything being more competitive and calculated. Increased professionalization has ruined the entertainment value of many sports.

Great point. Efficiency is the mother of all ruin. To counter that, the organizers need to be more skillfull or artful or something or other.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Re:

My pick would be Quintana, but the time trial is like an invitation to Froome,

Whilst Froome has improved his descending, hill finishes and tactical nous, his TTing hasn't been up to much all year. He'd probably put some time into all of his GC rivals, but not so much whereby it would be an open invitation, as it would with his 2012 and 2013 TT form.

Interesting that Brailsford was quick to express caution to any Vuelta bid discussion, presumably in light of the memory of Froome's relatively poor 2012 appearance after a full 3 weeks in France, which wouldn't have been as mentally or physically taxing as this one. Not to mention the demand over the next couple of weeks of media appearances, crits, sponsor meets, etc.

I don't think he'll ride.

 

[Gigs_98]

Just imagine Pozzo wins this vuelta. I would be so extremely happy about that

 

[sienna]

Difficult to predict without a def start list - I'll wait.

 

[sienna]

Re: Re:

My pick would be Quintana, but the time trial is like an invitation to Froome, who seems to me bent on proving something. I did not think he won the TDF, but rather it seemed more like Quintana lost it in the first week, when the peleton was split, which seems to happen a lot to Movistar. If Quintana doesn't win, then I would like to see Majka, but on the other hand, I would prefer to see Nibali win, if Froome rides and Quintana doesn't have a good time trial. Basically, I want everything, but more than that I am hoping for a good race, unlike the TDF, in which no one really attacked. It was not a very well animated race. One of the problems is that the "mountains" are a little too much to promote animation. They beg for survival tactics and a pound or two of something extra. Although I am much older, I have only watched the race for about 40 years, and it seems to have gotten less exciting over time. Perhaps it is me, but the routes seem not well designed for daring riding. One of the most exciting races of recent memory was the Vuelta that Contador won and Rodrigquez lost. It was a very daring attack that was very predictable in a way because it was possible. Most of the stages in the TDF do not allow for much other than break aways of the "we'll let them go" type, group sprints and herculean climbs, the order of which leaves a lot to be desired and really retards great racing, in my totally biased opinion. I like surprises. There were none, except maybe Cummings' victory, although I must say that Sagan was awesome to watch, even if he never won. He was always there, animating the race.

I think it has more to do with everything being more competitive and calculated. Increased professionalization has ruined the entertainment value of many sports.

Great point. Efficiency is the mother of all ruin. To counter that, the organisers need to be more skill full or artful or something or other.

I blame radios as well - nothing is left to chance.

 

[reubenr]

Re: Re:

My pick would be Quintana, but the time trial is like an invitation to Froome,

Whilst Froome has improved his descending, hill finishes and tactical nous, his TTing hasn't been up to much all year. He'd probably put some time into all of his GC rivals, but not so much whereby it would be an open invitation, as it would with his 2012 and 2013 TT form.

Interesting that Brailsford was quick to express caution to any Vuelta bid discussion, presumably in light of the memory of Froome's relatively poor 2012 appearance after a full 3 weeks in France, which wouldn't have been as mentally or physically taxing as this one. Not to mention the demand over the next couple of weeks of media appearances, crits, sponsor meets, etc.

I don't think he'll ride.

You may be quite right, but I think Brailsford and the Sky types are getting to the end of their ropes and would like to claim as much territory as possible, whether it is deserved or not. There is always someone like this who fouls up the weather scope, so why shouldn't it be him. I think Froome looks very feminine. Hasn't anyone noticed? I am sure this will wind up sounding like something from the other side, but he just doesn't seem very strong looking, very hairy. I guess it takes all kinds, but sometimes the medication you take does funny things to you. I'm not talking drugs here, I'm talking "medication."

 

[sienna]

I'm surprised that Spain's Grand Tour has only one UCI World Team and one wild-card team from its own country.

 

[reubenr]

I'm surprised that Spain's Grand Tour has only one UCI World Team and one wild-card team from its own country.

Do they have any other teams? Maybe one, and who dat?

 

[sienna]

I'm surprised that Spain's Grand Tour has only one UCI World Team and one wild-card team from its own country.

Do they have any other teams? Maybe one, and who dat?

All I could see are Moviestar and Caja Rural.

 

[wwabbit]

I'm surprised that Spain's Grand Tour has only one UCI World Team and one wild-card team from its own country.

Do they have any other teams? Maybe one, and who dat?

All I could see are Moviestar and Caja Rural.

Movistar is the only Spanish World Tour Team
Caja Rural is the only Spanish Pro Continental Team

There are no other Spanish teams eligible for invites