Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[MatParker117]

TJVG will ride have to fancy him for at least top 5 with that TT.

 

[Carols]

Tejay should be able to podium if he is healthy!

 

[Gigs_98]

I'm surprised that Spain's Grand Tour has only one UCI World Team and one wild-card team from its own country.

The question is rather, why does spain only have one WT team and one pro team. Thats sad if you consider that it is one of the biggest cycling countries (probably the biggest at the moment)

 

[malakassis]

Re:

TJVG will ride have to fancy him for at least top 5 with that TT.

great news TJ rides. he can do useful help-jobs for samu. lets face it: TJ isnt made for GT podium. at least with BMC.

 

[ice&fire]

I'm surprised that Spain's Grand Tour has only one UCI World Team and one wild-card team from its own country.

The question is rather, why does spain only have one WT team and one pro team. Thats sad if you consider that it is one of the biggest cycling countries (probably the biggest at the moment)

That's an easy one: Operacion Puerto immediately followed by globalisation of the sport and big financial crisis.

 

[Netserk]

TJ will probably finish between 5th and 8th.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

TJ will probably finish between 5th and 8th.

What's your top-10?

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

TJ will probably finish between 5th and 8th.

What's your top-10?

Don't know yet. Will post here after Burgos.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

TJ will probably finish between 5th and 8th.

What's your top-10?

Don't know yet. Will post here after Burgos.

Looking forward to it

You still think Landa will win it, with Quintana also in the mix?

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

TJ will probably finish between 5th and 8th.

What's your top-10?

Don't know yet. Will post here after Burgos.

Looking forward to it

You still think Landa will win it, with Quintana also in the mix?

Quintana will for sure be in the mix. Not sure with Landa now that Nibali is going too.

 

[veji11]

I'm surprised that Spain's Grand Tour has only one UCI World Team and one wild-card team from its own country.

The question is rather, why does spain only have one WT team and one pro team. Thats sad if you consider that it is one of the biggest cycling countries (probably the biggest at the moment)

That's an easy one: Operacion Puerto immediately followed by globalisation of the sport and big financial crisis.

Mainly the big financial crisis really...

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

TJ will probably finish between 5th and 8th.

What's your top-10?

Don't know yet. Will post here after Burgos.

Looking forward to it

You still think Landa will win it, with Quintana also in the mix?

Quintana will for sure be in the mix. Not sure with Landa now that Nibali is going too.

Well, in the end someone with a blue jersey will win

 

[roundabout]

The races started disappearing earlier than that. IIRC last Setmana Catalana and Aragon were in 2005.

 

[ice&fire]

Mainly the big financial crisis really...

Do not underestimate the effect of having more and more non-historic cycling nations (UK, Australia, Rusia...) or private individuals from those nations willing to have a WT team. Same pie for a larger number of guests.

 

[DBotero]

Good decision for TVG to redeem himself at the Vuelta Hopefully he's decent enough to challenge for the podium.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Well, in the end someone with a blue jersey will win

I'll bet it'll be a guy with a red jersey

Mainly the big financial crisis really...

Do not underestimate the effect of having more and more non-historic cycling nations (UK, Australia, Rusia...) or private individuals from those nations willing to have a WT team. Same pie for a larger number of guests.

I'm going to go with financial crisis as well.

Italy 2007:
3 Pro Conti teams
2 UCI Europe teams

Spain 2007:
3 Pro Conti teams
5 UCI Europe teams

Italy 2015:
4 Pro Conti teams
5 UCI Europe teams

Spain 2015:
1 Pro Conti teams
2 UCI Europe teams

Also:
2007 non-European pro-conti teams:5
2015 non-European pro-conti teams:5

A lot of those teams were sponsored by banks and regional goverments that were particularly hard hit. Movistar remains strong due to the particular nature of the sponsor. I'm guessing marketing value in the Latin American market is particularly key for this, as evidenced by the fact that the Movistar-sponsored UCI Continental team is registered in Colombia. The Navarran teams also seem to have wider appeal in Spain than ever before, due to the fact that it's their only Spanish WorldTour and ProConti teams, and that Navarra seems like a fairly uncontroversial (for spanish standards) home base.

 

[reubenr]

Good decision for TVG to redeem himself at the Vuelta Hopefully he's decent enough to challenge for the podium.

I don't see why TJ won't do well. He's a good rider. Maybe not the best on the steepest mountains, but he climbs well and time trials well. This Vuelta could be for him. I think he's very motivated after getting trashed in the TDF.

 

[Gigs_98]

To be honest TJ could even win this. He might be fresher because he doesn't have the alps in his legs and he is a very good time trialist. If he doesn't loose much time in the few difficult mtf's this year he could be extremely good.
ps: thats not what I think, I just say its possible.

 

[Mr.White]

Don't believe in TJ, he will loose time in that steep finishes. Plus never rode 2 GT's in one year, not to mention it's back to back GT's. I think top 5 would be success for him, although I think he will not achieve that

 

[orangerider]

TJ has the strength and endurance, plus the Tour ended up being a fantastic training ride for him without energy depletion so he should be in great shape. However, he always seems to mess something up. Maybe his luck will change this time.

 

[TI-Raleigh]

I think TJ's GC placement will be determined by who shows up in top shape. For instance, I don't see him out climbing Quintana, Froome, or Valverde. He'll probably be what Aru was in the mountains last year at the Vuelta and finish around 5th again. It's a great result, but hardly an inspiration.

 

[Andre.J]

I'll go with VDB...for the surpise

 

[Wallenquist]

Nibali confirmed his presence. Wasn't expecting that. So Astana will go with Aru, Landa and Nibali. Still I think there will be only one leader and it will be Aru.

So now we wait for Froome and Quintana. Today I read on twitter that Quintana won't go but not sure if it's official.

 

[Carols]

Nibali! This race is shaping up. There will be a battle within Astana as well as for the prizes . I hope they decide on the road who will lead the team!

 

[jens_attacks]

Jezuz christ astana. All that firepower _O_