Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[staubsauger]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

No way.

Nibali may have the palmares, but he neither ever has had his quality or talent.

Nibali is much closer to Aru. In fact Aru might be even more talented.

Still,Nibali has won all three grand tours, tough. That's what impresses my so much about him. He never was the big thing people made of him in 2007, but still managed to become it by pure class.

 

[The Hitch]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

Not sure about that.

People yet again think cycling is static.

Andy Schleck Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali were all born iirc in the space of a few weeks in the summer of 1985.

A few years ago Andy Schleck was three or four classes above Nibali who was 25 classes above Froome.

A few years later, Froome is three or four classes above Nibali who is 25 classes above Andy Schleck.

things change. If they didn't Phillipe Gilbert would have won about 10 monuments since 2010. If they didn't, Contador would have won a TDF in the last 5 years.

Aru is younger than Nibali was when he made his last super step up and younger than froome was before he was able to crack top 50's with any consistency. Nibali could also drop off at any time like Contador and others have. Or Nibali might improve further and Aru gets even worse. You never know. You can't ever be sure with cycling, or any sport for that matter, apart from maybe tennis where the same people do dominate for 10 years.

 

[Kazistuta]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

No way.

Nibali may have the palmares, but he neither ever has had his quality or talent.

Nibali is much closer to Aru. In fact Aru might be even more talented.

Still,Nibali has won all three grand tours, tough. That's what impresses my so much about him. He never was the big thing people made of him in 2007, but still managed to become it by pure class.

Let's just say that's your opinion

Nibali was already as a U23 rider a very versatile rider reeking class. Aru is a pure climber, a talented one indeed, but let's try and not put him on a piedestal....yet.

Nibali would't have his palmares and reputation if not for class, quality and talent.

 

[Miburo]

Sure, he might have a transformation but personally i don't believe in Aru. I think he's overrated, nothing special.

Many of it is influenced by clinic of course, look at gilbert lol

 

[staubsauger]

Looking at his racing days, Aru certainly prefers the Michael Rasmussen training approach.^^

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

He seemed pretty okay the first couple of stages. I think his crash actually had an impact and that something went wrong on the first rest day.

Yes, apparently he had problems with his back after the crash, a little bit like Mollema durning Dauphine but less severe.

 

[Rollthedice]

Last TdF Nibali was thermonuclear level, last week 2015 Tour Nibali was at least at Froome last week level. In whole his short career I never seen Aru come close to this kind of quality so until he does there's no reason to believe he can be better than Nibali.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

Last TdF Nibali was thermonuclear level, last week 2015 Tour Nibali was at least at Froome last week level. In whole his short career I never seen Aru come close to this kind of quality so until he does there's no reason to believe he can be better than Nibali.

Let's relax on that one, the numbers were great but he was still riding against scrubs.

Iirc a froome and contador had around the same numbers in the vuelta and they weren't fully prepared. And Froome level didn't mean much in the last week of the tour.

It's possible for Aru to get there, i don't believe in him but hasn't he already achieved more than nibali did at his age? Nibali at that age was also getting rekt by contador and schleck.

He was actually getting rekt his entire life by them, by froome too (post 2011). I personally believe he's very good but it's a fact though that he never beated them in a GT.

 

[Escarabajo]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

Not sure about that.

People yet again think cycling is static.

Andy Schleck Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali were all born iirc in the space of a few weeks in the summer of 1985.

A few years ago Andy Schleck was three or four classes above Nibali who was 25 classes above Froome.

A few years later, Froome is three or four classes above Nibali who is 25 classes above Andy Schleck.

things change. If they didn't Phillipe Gilbert would have won about 10 monuments since 2010. If they didn't, Contador would have won a TDF in the last 5 years.

Aru is younger than Nibali was when he made his last super step up and younger than froome was before he was able to crack top 50's with any consistency. Nibali could also drop off at any time like Contador and others have. Or Nibali might improve further and Aru gets even worse. You never know. You can't ever be sure with cycling, or any sport for that matter, apart from maybe tennis where the same people do dominate for 10 years.

+1
I will use this post everytime people start making assumptions or splitting hairs based on recent events. It works but not always. Cycling changes. And sometimes it changes quickly. One day you have Froome killing it at the Tour and few weeks later cannot hang with the group with local Americans at the US Pro Challenge.

 

[Gigs_98]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

A fresh Nibali was marginally better than a battered Contador at the Tour.

1.)@Miburo
Contador didnt really play with aru in the giro. Aru was extremely bad in the middle of the race, but he was probably ill or something like that. We have to compare AC to the Aru in a good shape like on the first two mtf's or the last two mountain stages and there he was on the same level as Contador. (On the last two mountain stages he was even stronger)
2.)@Dog
Contador was 5th in GC okay thats not what someone like Contador expects but think again. In 2013 he was third and without the crosswind stage he would have been even worse, and Nibali wasnt in that tour. Yes Contador would have been better without the giro in his legs but beside 2014 he wasnt really good since the giro 2011. So maybe the gap between the contador with and without the giro isnt even that big. And Nibali was far from top shape in the tour so I really don't know how meaningful this comparison is.

 

[Miburo]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

Not sure about that.

People yet again think cycling is static.

Andy Schleck Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali were all born iirc in the space of a few weeks in the summer of 1985.

A few years ago Andy Schleck was three or four classes above Nibali who was 25 classes above Froome.

A few years later, Froome is three or four classes above Nibali who is 25 classes above Andy Schleck.

things change. If they didn't Phillipe Gilbert would have won about 10 monuments since 2010. If they didn't, Contador would have won a TDF in the last 5 years.

Aru is younger than Nibali was when he made his last super step up and younger than froome was before he was able to crack top 50's with any consistency. Nibali could also drop off at any time like Contador and others have. Or Nibali might improve further and Aru gets even worse. You never know. You can't ever be sure with cycling, or any sport for that matter, apart from maybe tennis where the same people do dominate for 10 years.

+1
I will use this post everytime people start making assumptions or splitting hairs based on recent events. It works but not always. Cycling changes. And sometimes it changes quickly. One day you have Froome killing it at the Tour and few weeks later cannot hang with the group with local Americans at the US Pro Challenge.

Your example to prove hitch's point is terrible, completely besides the point.

 

[Motion]

Reeaallyy love Astana Vuelta roster. Still missing Astana Tour 2009 team

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

A fresh Nibali was marginally better than a battered Contador at the Tour.

1.)@Miburo
Contador didnt really play with aru in the giro. Aru was extremely bad in the middle of the race, but he was probably ill or something like that. We have to compare AC to the Aru in a good shape like on the first two mtf's or the last two mountain stages and there he was on the same level as Contador. (On the last two mountain stages he was even stronger)
2.)@Dog
Contador was 5th in GC okay thats not what someone like Contador expects but think again. In 2013 he was third and without the crosswind stage he would have been even worse, and Nibali wasnt in that tour. Yes Contador would have been better without the giro in his legs but beside 2014 he wasnt really good since the giro 2011. So maybe the gap between the contador with and without the giro isnt even that big. And Nibali was far from top shape in the tour so I really don't know how meaningful this comparison is.

But if you pick out the Aru in good shape, you'll have to pick out the AC in god shape as well. Which means not the AC of the Giro 2015.

 

[SeriousSam]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

A fresh Nibali was marginally better than a battered Contador at the Tour.

Are we talking about the fresh Nibali that toyed with the entire peloton in 2014, or the fresh Nibali that was dropped by 40 men up a short hill and then dropped by everyone important, including luminaries like Robert Gesink, for a huge amount of time at the first real MTF in 2015?

I don't think that's the same fresh Nibali. The real fresh Nibali, last seen in 2014, is clearly better than anything Aru has yet shown. The 2015 fresh Nibali, I'm not so sure.

 

[Squirbos_19]

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

Does he have a contract for next season?

 

[Squirbos_19]

Re: Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

Does he have a contract for next season?

According to PCS he has a contract, but for some reason I thought he didn't so he might not perform as I expect him too. Anyway he's my dark horse for the podium.

 

[Miburo]

Quintana confirmed for the vuelta.

If only contador didn't do the giro, we might have had the best field ever in the vuelta

Although i'm pretty sure froome won't do it.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

If he can do a Horner, that would be awesome!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-hoping-utah-can-propel-him-to-vuelta-success/

Frank Schleck is the perfect example to me of a rider who should have focused on the other two grand tours at times throughout his career. Usually more mountains and less time trials, and as a GC rider Frank was very good, but not really quite at the level of the top Tour guys. My guess is that it is too late for him to podium the Vuelta, even with some strong focus on it.

 

[No_Balls]

Re: Re:

Quintana to ride for Valverdes second place?

 

[StannisBaratheon]

39 km of ITT will neutralize any kind of advantage Quintana gains during the mountains

 

[movingtarget]

Looks like the Vuelta will have a better field than I thought. I hope Froome also rides but I have my doubts.

 

[greenedge]

[quote="

Are we talking about the fresh Nibali that toyed with the entire peloton in 2014, or the fresh Nibali that was dropped by 40 men up a short hill and then dropped by everyone important, including luminaries like Robert Gesink, for a huge amount of time at the first real MTF in 2015?

He's always been a huge talent, it's not that surprising.

I'd love to see Froome ride the Vuelta as I think he'd lose, but a showdown between Quintana and Nibali will still be an amazing spectacle and could even be better without Froome there.

 

[infeXio]

Re:

39 km of ITT will neutralize any kind of advantage Quintana gains during the mountains

Really depends on who he's riding against...

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Looks like the Vuelta will have a better field than I thought. I hope Froome also rides but I have my doubts.

Since the Vuelta was moved to September, any TdF winner racing it would be putting into question his status as best GT rider of the season just a few weeks after having conquered the throne. As a matter of fact, nobody has ever done it with the honorable exception of Sastre. Pereiro did it as well, but he belongs to a different category of GT winner.