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Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

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Apr 17, 2015
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Arredondo said:
Frank Schleck to win or podium the Vuelta? What did i miss the past weeks?
there was an article hinting that he hopes to do a Horner, but also the fact that in the last 9 vueltas the winners have generally not finished a GT in the same season, therefore it's the fresher rider who wins.
2006: Vino wins after barely riding all season, Valverde in 2nd who abandoned after 3 stages in the Tour.
2007: Menchov wins after abandoning stage 17.
2008: Contador wins, doesn't follow the trend after he won the Giro.
2009: Valverde wins his only GT of the season.
2010: Nibali wins, but rode Giro
2011: Cobo, only GT of his season, Froome in 2nd with his only Gt of the season and even Eiggins who didn't finish the Tour
2012: Contador wins after having most of the year off.
2013: Horner
2014: Contador wins after only riding 10 stages of the Tour.

This year all the big GC riders have ridden a full GT so at the moment it's basically pulling names out of a hat of who will win.

I don't think we'll get a totally surprise winner but I do think 1 rider will achieve their first GT podium.
 
Aug 16, 2013
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Squirbos_19 said:
Arredondo said:
Frank Schleck to win or podium the Vuelta? What did i miss the past weeks?
there was an article hinting that he hopes to do a Horner, but also the fact that in the last 9 vueltas the winners have generally not finished a GT in the same season, therefore it's the fresher rider who wins.
2006: Vino wins after barely riding all season, Valverde in 2nd who abandoned after 3 stages in the Tour.
2007: Menchov wins after abandoning stage 17.
2008: Contador wins, doesn't follow the trend after he won the Giro.
2009: Valverde wins his only GT of the season.
2010: Nibali wins, but rode Giro
2011: Cobo, only GT of his season, Froome in 2nd with his only Gt of the season and even Eiggins who didn't finish the Tour
2012: Contador wins after having most of the year off.
2013: Horner
2014: Contador wins after only riding 10 stages of the Tour.

This year all the big GC riders have ridden a full GT so at the moment it's basically pulling names out of a hat of who will win.

I don't think we'll get a totally surprise winner but I do think 1 rider will achieve their first GT podium.
But you're talking about top riders, who at least showed in the same season they could win a Vuelta (or had the potential). Frank Schleck never showed anything near that after his suspension.

He will not finish in the top-8. I'm quite sure of that.
 
Im quite sure it will be one of the big guys winning it all. I cant see those Cobo/Horner types alá Schleck, Navarro, Sami S, JVB etc. do anything better than a top-10. Movistar and Astana will simply be too much of a handful I think. Both Aru, Nibali, Valverde and Rodriguez have showed that they can ride 2 GT's at a very high level.

And for that list: Many more of the top guns have begun to go the Vuelta which was much different just a few years back. This Vuelta will probably have one of the best startlists, if not the best, if Froome attends.
 
Apr 17, 2015
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Arredondo said:
Squirbos_19 said:
Arredondo said:
Frank Schleck to win or podium the Vuelta? What did i miss the past weeks?
there was an article hinting that he hopes to do a Horner, but also the fact that in the last 9 vueltas the winners have generally not finished a GT in the same season, therefore it's the fresher rider who wins.
2006: Vino wins after barely riding all season, Valverde in 2nd who abandoned after 3 stages in the Tour.
2007: Menchov wins after abandoning stage 17.
2008: Contador wins, doesn't follow the trend after he won the Giro.
2009: Valverde wins his only GT of the season.
2010: Nibali wins, but rode Giro
2011: Cobo, only GT of his season, Froome in 2nd with his only Gt of the season and even Eiggins who didn't finish the Tour
2012: Contador wins after having most of the year off.
2013: Horner
2014: Contador wins after only riding 10 stages of the Tour.

This year all the big GC riders have ridden a full GT so at the moment it's basically pulling names out of a hat of who will win.

I don't think we'll get a totally surprise winner but I do think 1 rider will achieve their first GT podium.
But you're talking about top riders, who at least showed in the same season they could win a Vuelta (or had the potential). Frank Schleck never showed anything near that after his suspension.

He will not finish in the top-8. I'm quite sure of that.
Fair enough, he isn't in the same class as the others. I don't really believe he can top 5 but if there is a surprise in the top 5 then maybe it could be him. My thinking was probably influenced by the CN article, recent talk of Andy on the forums, him riding very little this season and the fact that he was a good climber. Also his 2006 Alpe victory was one of my first stages I remember watching of the Tour so I do have a bit of a soft spot for him.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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Let's wait and see what Schleck does in Utah before deciding on his chances. He's done nothing at all this year so far after all.
Pozzovivo surely looks like the better bet between those two.
 
After all, Martinelli finally wants to win the Vuelta in his DS career.

Landa or Aru. Aru or Landa. If Landa is stronger and is able to storm into the red jersey he may be allowed to fly this time.

Pozzovivo is the dark horse. Good climber with a decent tt. Fresh. Hits his peak shape at the beginning of a grand tour.

Anyone else seems to be chancless. Especially Nibali & Quintana.

Valverde may fight for the podium with Purito once again. But this time around Alejandro digged deep in the Tour which should favor Rodriguez.

Still, there are other pretty fresh riders around like Majka, Schleck which potentially could podium or at least hit the top 5.

One of Valverde or Quintana could still get a top 5. 3rd place with a bit of luck. Nibali to get a top 10 or top 15. Seriously I don't see all three of them in the top 10. 2 maybe.

Just my 2 cents. I could be fatally wrong.

Ps: I don't get why Ag2r apparently ain't got no Bardet in it's lineup. He just got back in good shape at the end of the Tour and could be a factor in Spain. Stage wins + polka dot jersey at least.
 
Re:

SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
Froome's 3rd week was perfectly ok in Vuelta 2011, Tour 2012 and Vuelta 2014.
 
Mar 14, 2015
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wwabbit said:
SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
Froome's 3rd week was perfectly ok in Vuelta 2011, Tour 2012 and Vuelta 2014.
Nah,he didn't win any of those :D You could add TDF 2013 3rd week to that list considering his performance on 17th and 20th stage.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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wwabbit said:
SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
Froome's 3rd week was perfectly ok in Vuelta 2011, Tour 2012 and Vuelta 2014.
Vuelta 2011, no Tour done beforehand. Not relevant.
Tour 2012, no GT done beforehand, and that was not a real race, it was just a stroll around France :p . Not relevant.
Vuelta 2014, only 5 Tour stages done beforehand. Not relevant.

Your real comparison should be Vuelta 2012. Tour done beforehand, and he lost a ton of time at the end of that Vuelta.
 
Re: Re:

SergeDeM said:
wwabbit said:
SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
Froome's 3rd week was perfectly ok in Vuelta 2011, Tour 2012 and Vuelta 2014.
Vuelta 2011, no Tour done beforehand. Not relevant.
Tour 2012, no GT done beforehand, and that was not a real race, it was just a stroll around France :p . Not relevant.
Vuelta 2014, only 5 Tour stages done beforehand. Not relevant.

Your real comparison should be Vuelta 2012. Tour done beforehand, and he lost a ton of time at the end of that Vuelta.
Still came 4th tbf, and 2015 Froome is a whole level above 2012 Froome
 
Aug 9, 2009
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PremierAndrew said:
SergeDeM said:
wwabbit said:
SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
Froome's 3rd week was perfectly ok in Vuelta 2011, Tour 2012 and Vuelta 2014.
Vuelta 2011, no Tour done beforehand. Not relevant.
Tour 2012, no GT done beforehand, and that was not a real race, it was just a stroll around France :p . Not relevant.
Vuelta 2014, only 5 Tour stages done beforehand. Not relevant.

Your real comparison should be Vuelta 2012. Tour done beforehand, and he lost a ton of time at the end of that Vuelta.
Still came 4th tbf, and 2015 Froome is a whole level above 2012 Froome
He's more experienced, yes, but I don't really think he's physically much better. If he hadn't had to babysit Wiggins he'd be a three time TDF winner. Or, two and a half as 2012 can't really count as a full Tour :p

Honestly, in 2012 he finished a full minute ahead of... Dani Moreno. No, he was already tiring this Tour in the third week and his track record doesn't support a successful GC challenge for the Vuelta. We can all get it wrong of course but this is how I see it.
 
Re: Re:

SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
I don't agree with this. If anything, I think that this year's Tour showed that Froome is the one with the best endurance/recovery of the GC riders.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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Hugo Koblet said:
SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
I don't agree with this. If anything, I think that this year's Tour showed that Froome is the one with the best endurance/recovery of the GC riders.
You don't have to agree, but I get the feeling we saw two very different races ;)
What I did see is that he has the best resistance to heat, which has really nothing to do with endurance/recovery.
 
Re: Re:

SergeDeM said:
PremierAndrew said:
SergeDeM said:
wwabbit said:
SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
Froome's 3rd week was perfectly ok in Vuelta 2011, Tour 2012 and Vuelta 2014.
Vuelta 2011, no Tour done beforehand. Not relevant.
Tour 2012, no GT done beforehand, and that was not a real race, it was just a stroll around France :p . Not relevant.
Vuelta 2014, only 5 Tour stages done beforehand. Not relevant.

Your real comparison should be Vuelta 2012. Tour done beforehand, and he lost a ton of time at the end of that Vuelta.
Still came 4th tbf, and 2015 Froome is a whole level above 2012 Froome
He's more experienced, yes, but I don't really think he's physically much better. If he hadn't had to babysit Wiggins he'd be a three time TDF winner. Or, two and a half as 2012 can't really count as a full Tour :p

Honestly, in 2012 he finished a full minute ahead of... Dani Moreno. No, he was already tiring this Tour in the third week and his track record doesn't support a successful GC challenge for the Vuelta. We can all get it wrong of course but this is how I see it.
Would 2015 (or 2013/2014 for that matter) Froome, even with domestique duties, only take 2 seconds on a Peak Wiggins and a decent Cadel on the first summit finish of the Tour?
 
Aug 9, 2009
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PremierAndrew said:
Would 2015 (or 2013/2014 for that matter) Froome, even with domestique duties, only take 2 seconds on a Peak Wiggins and a decent Cadel on the first summit finish of the Tour?
There are so many variables to this it's just ridiculous.
Turn it around. Would 2012 Froome, without domestique duties, take how many seconds on a peak Wiggins and a decent Cadel on the first summit finish of the Tour?

Whatever, it's nonsense.

All I'm saying is I don't see enough endurance and motivation for a successful Froome challenge this Vuelta. You can see it differently and that's cool.
 
Re: Re:

SergeDeM said:
Hugo Koblet said:
SergeDeM said:
I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.
I don't agree with this. If anything, I think that this year's Tour showed that Froome is the one with the best endurance/recovery of the GC riders.
You don't have to agree, but I get the feeling we saw two very different races ;)
What I did see is that he has the best resistance to heat, which has really nothing to do with endurance/recovery.
Froome able to hold his peak for much longer than Quintana et al which must be a pretty good indicator for endurance/recovery.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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That's not the same thing. I'm really talking about holding it together for two GTs, not for two-three weeks, and we've all seen that it's just too difficult. Ask Contador. Ask 2012 Froome.

For me, the win is between the Giro kids and Pozzovivo. Maybe TJ... I wouldn't bet on it but he is young and theoretically still improving. Maybe Rodriguez but it looks like he's been on his last GT podium already.
 
Re:

SergeDeM said:
That's not the same thing. I'm really talking about holding it together for two GTs, not for two-three weeks, and we've all seen that it's just too difficult. Ask Contador. Ask 2012 Froome.

For me, the win is between the Giro kids and Pozzovivo. Maybe TJ... I wouldn't bet on it but he is young and theoretically still improving. Maybe Rodriguez but it looks like he's been on his last GT podium already.
Well I do agree that he probably won't be a contender for the win in the Vuelta :)
 
Aug 9, 2009
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Hugo Koblet said:
SergeDeM said:
That's not the same thing. I'm really talking about holding it together for two GTs, not for two-three weeks, and we've all seen that it's just too difficult. Ask Contador. Ask 2012 Froome.

For me, the win is between the Giro kids and Pozzovivo. Maybe TJ... I wouldn't bet on it but he is young and theoretically still improving. Maybe Rodriguez but it looks like he's been on his last GT podium already.
Well I do agree that he probably won't be a contender for the win in the Vuelta :)
Haha good because that's the only thing I've been trying to say ;)
 
Majka preparing in Livigno. Didn't have much rest after the Tour.
Still sees TdF as the biggest and best race by far.
I watched his interview in one of the talk shows in Poland and I have to say that I am dissapointed. Doesn't seem too bright, as opposed to Kwiatkowski
 

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