Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[Escarabajo]

Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

He is probably so tired that he won't even go.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

Quality wise in GT's he is below Aru HOW?

Because Aru is constantly improving whereas Valverde is declining in GTs (also improving in classics). Before the Tour I would've said this. But Valverde was good in the Tour so actually Piti is above Aru . What I was trying to say was I think Aru will beat Piti here. However, this is his last chance to win another grand tour IMO, so may go all out.

Also, on a MTT where they are both in top shape, Aru will beat Valverde. Valverde could not go within 30 seconds of Nairo on a MTT up aMonte Grappa.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

The guy has been chasing a TdF podium for 10 years and just when he gets it he's no longer a good GT rider

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

I wonder how Piti will handle his Tour fatigue this year.He is a year older and he was on the big peak in the spring.Yep, he also was very tired last year but we could see that he couldnt handle AC and CF pace.TBH I think the rider who will win this vuelta will be around AC level of last year Vuelta.
I think that Astana boys (except Nibali) has bigger chance of winning this thing unless Quintana totally burries himself for Piti.

Aru and Landa will do better then Piti in the Vuelta. Just because they are really explosive riders by themselves, so they should not lose too much time in the punchy stages. And in the real mountain stages (11, 16) they are capable of dropping Bala by at least 1 minute.

The only Tour guy capable of beating the Astana team is Quintana.

He crashed a few days agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHIYSTjS5Hc
He wasn't in the Astana front group yesterday.
He won't get the leadership.
Why are you so convinced he'll be a factor in Vuelta

Because he doesn't give a **** about team orders

But no way Valverde is the main favorite. Astana is too strong for that. Also Quintana is better then Piti in a GT. Look at Froome and Contador last year: the best climbers eventually will come to the fore.

thats true, but we dont know how he handles 2 GT's in a row in this age.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

I would like to see Sergio in a great GT shape, but I dont think it would be enough for a podium, he didnt go for GC result in a GT for few years now

 

[bala v]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

Quality wise in GT's he is below Aru HOW?

Because Aru is constantly improving whereas Valverde is declining in GTs (also improving in classics). Before the Tour I would've said this. But Valverde was good in the Tour so actually Piti is above Aru . What I was trying to say was I think Aru will beat Piti here. However, this is his last chance to win another grand tour IMO, so may go all out.

Also, on a MTT where they are both in top shape, Aru will beat Valverde. Valverde could not go within 30 seconds of Nairo on a MTT up aMonte Grappa.

Well I think Piti will beat Aru at Vuelta.
Also have to disagree on the MTT topic, Valverde's top shape is above Aru's and he was always good in MTT-s

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

He is probably so tired that he won't even go.

Yeah, maybe. I think Sky's Poland team could very well be their Vuelta team, but let's wait to see.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

Froome is older now. Riders over 30 tend to be able to ride two GTs in a row very well.

It depends on whatever he wants to do it or not. It takes a lot of effort, not just physically, but also psychologically. And he is going to be a dad.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

Froome is older now. Riders over 30 tend to be able to ride two GTs in a row very well.

It depends on whatever he wants to do it or not. It takes a lot of effort, not just physically, but also psychologically. And he is going to be a dad.

wait what?

Now Darwin must be rolling over in his grave.

 

[No_Balls]

Re: Re:

I wonder how Piti will handle his Tour fatigue this year.He is a year older and he was on the big peak in the spring.Yep, he also was very tired last year but we could see that he couldnt handle AC and CF pace.TBH I think the rider who will win this vuelta will be around AC level of last year Vuelta.
I think that Astana boys (except Nibali) has bigger chance of winning this thing unless Quintana totally burries himself for Piti.

Aru and Landa will do better then Piti in the Vuelta. Just because they are really explosive riders by themselves, so they should not lose too much time in the punchy stages. And in the real mountain stages (11, 16) they are capable of dropping Bala by at least 1 minute.

The only Tour guy capable of beating the Astana team is Quintana.

Looks as if being a Purito-fan demands 85% of the time spent on Valverde.

And yes, Quintana could win in theory but if theory been a GT-rider its palmares would be outstanding. With this being said newcomers to the sport shouldnt get their hopes up too much on Quintana as the Astana duo occasionally attacks from further out then 2-3 km from the finish. Besides he cant do much this Vuelta without asking how high when Bala says jump.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Is the consensus that they basically switch roles from the Tour at Movistar? Im not so sure, I think they will be at equal terms of the beginning like the 2013-Tour. At least that's what I am hoping for considering the very well designed and extremely hard stages 11 and 16.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

Froome is older now. Riders over 30 tend to be able to ride two GTs in a row very well.

It depends on whatever he wants to do it or not. It takes a lot of effort, not just physically, but also psychologically. And he is going to be a dad.

wait what?

Now Darwin must be rolling over in his grave.

Yeah. But it seems to be the case. 25 year old riders rarely rides two GT's. Only the very best like Quintana.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Is the consensus that they basically switch roles from the Tour at Movistar? Im not so sure, I think they will be at equal terms of the beginning like the 2013-Tour. At least that's what I am hoping for considering the very well designed and extremely hard stages 11 and 16.

they declared this very clearly (but before the Tour)

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

Froome is older now. Riders over 30 tend to be able to ride two GTs in a row very well.

It depends on whatever he wants to do it or not. It takes a lot of effort, not just physically, but also psychologically. And he is going to be a dad.

wait what?

Now Darwin must be rolling over in his grave.

Yeah. But it seems to be the case. 25 year old riders rarely rides two GT's. Only the very best like Quintana.

only because they don't ride two gt'sp per year that doesnt mean that older riders have better regeneration. For example, AC rode giro and tour this year, but he was shitty in the tdf.

 

[wirral]

Froome has a track record of pulling out of events or leaving the decision till quite late. He has been criticised in the past for disrespecting race organisers. I can't see him doing the Vuelta.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I wonder how Piti will handle his Tour fatigue this year.He is a year older and he was on the big peak in the spring.Yep, he also was very tired last year but we could see that he couldnt handle AC and CF pace.TBH I think the rider who will win this vuelta will be around AC level of last year Vuelta.
I think that Astana boys (except Nibali) has bigger chance of winning this thing unless Quintana totally burries himself for Piti.

Aru and Landa will do better then Piti in the Vuelta. Just because they are really explosive riders by themselves, so they should not lose too much time in the punchy stages. And in the real mountain stages (11, 16) they are capable of dropping Bala by at least 1 minute.

The only Tour guy capable of beating the Astana team is Quintana.

Looks as if being a Purito-fan demands 85% of the time spent on Valverde.

And yes, Quintana could win in theory but if theory been a GT-rider its palmares would be outstanding. With this being said newcomers to the sport shouldnt get their hopes up too much on Quintana as the Astana duo occasionally attacks from further out then 2-3 km from the finish. Besides he cant do much this Vuelta without asking how high when Bala says jump.

I'm interesting in top riders. And Bala is a top class rider

It's not about attacking from 2/3 k out. If Aru decides to attack from far out, or Landa, or Nibali, the other GC guys have to react. If Aru is going full genius on La Gallina, Quintana has to follow. And in that situation, i think they should be able to drop Bala. Just look at Ancares and Farrapona last year: if the real climbers attack, he can't follow. But that's the same for Purito, Pozzovivo, Henao, Van Garderen etc.

 

[Velolover2]

Isn't one of the stages named after Purito? The Andora stage (stage 11).

He is pretty hyped for this Vuelta. And I'm pretty sure he will podium regardless of the TT. It's his final chance and he shouldn't be tired after the Tour. Unlike Valverde, he has saved a lot of energy in the Tour.

If there is no Froome, I can't see him losing a huge amount of time to the rest of the GC guys.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Isn't one of the stages named after Purito? The Andora stage (stage 11).

He is pretty hyped for this Vuelta. And I'm pretty sure he will podium regardless of the TT. It's his final chance and he shouldn't be tired after the Tour. Unlike Valverde, he has saved a lot of energy in the Tour.

If there is no Froome, I can't see him losing a huge amount of time to the rest of the GC guys.

That's the spirit!

 

[jaylew]

I don't think anyone who raced the Tour at a high level will win this, so no Froome, Valverde, Nairo, or Nibali.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Isn't one of the stages named after Purito? The Andora stage (stage 11).

He is pretty hyped for this Vuelta. And I'm pretty sure he will podium regardless of the TT. It's his final chance and he shouldn't be tired after the Tour. Unlike Valverde, he has saved a lot of energy in the Tour.

If there is no Froome, I can't see him losing a huge amount of time to the rest of the GC guys.

That's the spirit!

Without Froome and Quintana (as a contender), there is no clear favorite. Purito should be one of the strongest climbers. He is still fresh.

Based on what we saw on Huy, I still think he is the king of the short, steep climbs. He defeated a Froome in super-shape and the rest of the favorites.

And I bet he'll do anything possible to win stage 11 which is the hardest stage there is.

I am pretty sure that he will be better on the climbs than Pozzo, Aru, Rolland, Tejay even Nibali.

The true danger man is Landa. Not sure if he can beat him.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

I don't think anyone who raced the Tour at a high level will win this, so no Froome, Valverde, Nairo, or Nibali.

That would make it fun. With no clear favorite.

I enjoy watching riders like Henao, Pozzovivo, Majka, Betancur and Purito battling it out more.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Out of the GC thread -> Sylvain Chavanel will probably do an Adam Hansen this year.
http://www.cyclingpro.net/velopro/velopro/road/sylvain-chavanel-sera-au-depart-de-la-vuelta-son-3e-grand-tour-de-la-saison (french)

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Isn't one of the stages named after Purito? The Andora stage (stage 11).

He is pretty hyped for this Vuelta. And I'm pretty sure he will podium regardless of the TT. It's his final chance and he shouldn't be tired after the Tour. Unlike Valverde, he has saved a lot of energy in the Tour.

If there is no Froome, I can't see him losing a huge amount of time to the rest of the GC guys.

That's the spirit!

Without Froome and Quintana (as a contender), there is no clear favorite. Purito should be one of the strongest climbers. He is still fresh.

Based on what we saw on Huy, I still think he is the king of the short, steep climbs. He defeated a Froome in super-shape and the rest of the favorites.

And I bet he'll do anything possible to win stage 11 which is the hardest stage there is.

I am pretty sure that he will be better on the climbs than Pozzo, Aru, Rolland, Tejay even Nibali.

The true danger man is Landa. Not sure if he can beat him.

I agree about Pozzo, Rolland, Tejay and Henao. Nibali could be. But i think Aru will be the better climber.

I think top-5 is possible for Purito. With a little bit of luck podium, but winning is out of question imo. But i just want him to win 1 or 2 stages and just be in the mix.

 

[Rollthedice]

Vincenzo Nibali, Fabio Aru, Mikel Landa, Dario Cataldo, Diego Rosa, Luis León Sánchez, Paolo Tiralongo, Alessandro Vanotti and Andrey Zeits. Astana team for Vuelta, take no prisoners crush the enemy, Vino4ever. Honestly, this is Astana's Vuelta to loose.

 

[wendybnt]

No way will Froome turn up for this. I can't see any of the big names, except maybe Nibali, having a go after the gruelfest in July