Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[Brullnux]

Is Formolo going to the Vuelta? You never know, after a grandpa winning its time for the odd-year-Vuelta-surprise-winner to be a baby

 

[staubsauger]

Diego Ulissi anyone? If he still intends to become a gc rider the Vuelta looks like a good test balloon.

 

[Brullnux]

I was thinking about Ulissi but I think his high mountain climbing isn't good enough. Maybe he can top20, that should be his goal, along with a stage win on the many uphill finishes. IMO he needs to focus on the spring classics. He is Italy's best chance in those and he outs printed Lobato when he wasn't on great form and has outsprinted Gerrans too, he has a tremendous kick. Today maybe showed that he has rebound some climbing form, but he was almost dropped 2 or 3 times on the last climb, before regathering himself and attacking 1,5km from the finish.

 

[Singer01]

bookies currently have 10 riders at less than 20-1. TDF had 4. this thing is wide open.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

bookies currently have 10 riders at less than 20-1. TDF had 4. this thing is wide open.

Should be the best GT of the year for the 5th year in a row

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

bookies currently have 10 riders at less than 20-1. TDF had 4. this thing is wide open.

Should be the best GT of the year for the 5th year in a row

It will be hard to top the Giro, but you never know.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

bookies currently have 10 riders at less than 20-1. TDF had 4. this thing is wide open.

Should be the best GT of the year for the 5th year in a row

The only vuelta of the past few years which I really enjoyed was 2012, and that was basically only because of fuente de. 2011, 2013 and 2014 were all pretty close but there were hardly any really good stages. However, to be honest most other gt's from 2011 to 2015 were really bad too, but I would say that the tour 2011 was better than the vuelta of that year.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

bookies currently have 10 riders at less than 20-1. TDF had 4. this thing is wide open.

Should be the best GT of the year for the 5th year in a row

The only vuelta of the past few years which I really enjoyed was 2012, and that was basically only because of fuente de. 2011, 2013 and 2014 were all pretty close but there were hardly any really good stages. However, to be honest most other gt's from 2011 to 2015 were really bad too, but I would say that the tour 2011 was better than the vuelta of that year.

Tour 2011 was horrible apart from the last week. If you are having Luz Ardiden and Plateau de Beille with some proper mountains in before and basically nothing happens its just... pathetic. Though I will admit the 2 last stages were incredibly good in the high mountains. I liked the Vuelta 2014 more. It was just great to see Froome and Contador go at it since we were robbed of that.

I will agree tho, 2011 and 2013 werent the best GT's of the year. Clearly 2011 Giro was better than Vuelta 2011 which was horrible (obviously just mine opinion) while 2013 Tour imo was better than Vuelta 2013 and Giro 2013. I didnt like either of those 2 Vueltas particular much honestly - especially not 2011, I think mainly due to it being dominated like riders such as Cobo, Wiggo and a new born Froome.

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

Would 2015 (or 2013/2014 for that matter) Froome, even with domestique duties, only take 2 seconds on a Peak Wiggins and a decent Cadel on the first summit finish of the Tour?

Did Froome ever go all out that Tour? No. I highly doubt Froome is any better physically now than he was 2012 or 2013

 

[Valv.Piti]

Also, the next 2 days will be very telling for Astana. While Aru showed great form (I think better than everybody had expected at this point), Landa is also riding in Burgos and will face 2 mountain stages, while Aru 1 and a deciding ITT. Say if an impressive Aru today wasnt a fluke and Landa does what he expect him to at Neila, how will Nibali feel about that? Surely he will be watching from home.

So excited to see what happens at Astana. I fear the worst honestly, so from now on I can only be plesently surprised.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

bookies currently have 10 riders at less than 20-1. TDF had 4. this thing is wide open.

Should be the best GT of the year for the 5th year in a row

The only vuelta of the past few years which I really enjoyed was 2012, and that was basically only because of fuente de. 2011, 2013 and 2014 were all pretty close but there were hardly any really good stages. However, to be honest most other gt's from 2011 to 2015 were really bad too, but I would say that the tour 2011 was better than the vuelta of that year.

Tour 2011 was horrible apart from the last week. If you are having Luz Ardiden and Plateau de Beille with some proper mountains in before and basically nothing happens its just... pathetic. Though I will admit the 2 last stages were incredibly good in the high mountains. I liked the Vuelta 2014 more. It was just great to see Froome and Contador go at it since we were robbed of that.

I will agree tho, 2011 and 2013 werent the best GT's of the year. Clearly 2011 Giro was better than Vuelta 2011 which was horrible (obviously just mine opinion) while 2013 Tour imo was better than Vuelta 2013 and Giro 2013. I didnt like either of those 2 Vueltas particular much honestly - especially not 2011, I think mainly due to it being dominated like riders such as Cobo, Wiggo and a new born Froome.

These last two mountain stages of the tour 2011 alone made it a better race than that years vuelta. I mean what did that race have besides cobo cracking wiggins on the angliru. Btw, I didnt like the giro of that year because I was a little bit of a contador hater back then
Oh, and why did like the 2013 tour? IMO that race was absolutely horrible, although I liked that quintana was better than froome in the 3rd week, but even in these stages basically nothing happened besides some late attacks.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yes, I was arguing Vuelta 2014 was better than Tour 2011, not Vuelta 2011 better than Tour 2011. Lets agree on Vuelta 11 was a shitty race. And since only the last couple of stages were good in Tour 2011 and the Giro 2011 was epic, that was clearly the best that year imo.

Why Tour 2013? I liked the mountain stages. Ax-3-Domaines, Ventoux, Alpe d Huez and Semnoz all proved to be hard enough to make significant, early selection between the best GC riders in the world, minus Nibali. All of them were present. And 3 out of those 4 were won by GC-riders, 2 for Froome and 1 for Quintana who also made that Tour for me.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

I was thinking about Ulissi but I think his high mountain climbing isn't good enough. Maybe he can top20, that should be his goal, along with a stage win on the many uphill finishes. IMO he needs to focus on the spring classics. He is Italy's best chance in those and he outs printed Lobato when he wasn't on great form and has outsprinted Gerrans too,

I thought he might be the next great Italian star for Ardennes/Lombardia, replacing Bettini, Cunego, Di Luca and Rebellin but it just hasn't happened. I think his only top 10 is a 9th at Flèche. Feels like he's been around forever but he just turned 26 so I haven't bailed on him yet.

 

[ILovecycling]

I wonder how Piti will handle his Tour fatigue this year.He is a year older and he was on the big peak in the spring.Yep, he also was very tired last year but we could see that he couldnt handle AC and CF pace.TBH I think the rider who will win this vuelta will be around AC level of last year Vuelta.
I think that Astana boys (except Nibali) has bigger chance of winning this thing unless Quintana totally burries himself for Piti.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

I was thinking about Ulissi but I think his high mountain climbing isn't good enough. Maybe he can top20, that should be his goal, along with a stage win on the many uphill finishes. IMO he needs to focus on the spring classics. He is Italy's best chance in those and he outs printed Lobato when he wasn't on great form and has outsprinted Gerrans too,

I thought he might be the next great Italian star for Ardennes/Lombardia, replacing Bettini, Cunego, Di Luca and Rebellin but it just hasn't happened. I think his only top 10 is a 9th at Flèche. Feels like he's been around forever but he just turned 26 so I haven't bailed on him yet.

I think this was the year where he could've really let his talent on show, but the ban put him seriously off form-wise. I don't think we have seen him in top form all season. At the Giro he wasn't in top form IMO, and yet he finished 3rd behind a motivated PhilGil and AC on a climb which was half Cauberg half Mur, after dragging himself back into the group single handedly. He has the talent, he just needs to specialise a bit more.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

I wonder how Piti will handle his Tour fatigue this year.He is a year older and he was on the big peak in the spring.Yep, he also was very tired last year but we could see that he couldnt handle AC and CF pace.TBH I think the rider who will win this vuelta will be around AC level of last year Vuelta.
I think that Astana boys (except Nibali) has bigger chance of winning this thing unless Quintana totally burries himself for Piti.

Aru and Landa will do better then Piti in the Vuelta. Just because they are really explosive riders by themselves, so they should not lose too much time in the punchy stages. And in the real mountain stages (11, 16) they are capable of dropping Bala by at least 1 minute.

The only Tour guy capable of beating the Astana team is Quintana.

 

[DBotero]

Re:

I wonder how Piti will handle his Tour fatigue this year.He is a year older and he was on the big peak in the spring.Yep, he also was very tired last year but we could see that he couldnt handle AC and CF pace.TBH I think the rider who will win this vuelta will be around AC level of last year Vuelta.
I think that Astana boys (except Nibali) has bigger chance of winning this thing unless Quintana totally burries himself for Piti.

Astana boys can be reduced to Aru i think and that guy is looking ready.Valverde despite he was going hard in the 3rd week of TDF is still the main favorite.His super domestique Quintana will provide him great support and take on the leadership if needed.There is no need to be at AC level Vuelta 2014 to win this if Froome won't show up.

 

[DBotero]

Re: Re:

I wonder how Piti will handle his Tour fatigue this year.He is a year older and he was on the big peak in the spring.Yep, he also was very tired last year but we could see that he couldnt handle AC and CF pace.TBH I think the rider who will win this vuelta will be around AC level of last year Vuelta.
I think that Astana boys (except Nibali) has bigger chance of winning this thing unless Quintana totally burries himself for Piti.

Aru and Landa will do better then Piti in the Vuelta. Just because they are really explosive riders by themselves, so they should not lose too much time in the punchy stages. And in the real mountain stages (11, 16) they are capable of dropping Bala by at least 1 minute.

The only Tour guy capable of beating the Astana team is Quintana.

He crashed a few days agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHIYSTjS5Hc
He wasn't in the Astana front group yesterday.
He won't get the leadership.
Why are you so convinced he'll be a factor in Vuelta

 

[SergeDeM]

Re: Re:

Astana boys can be reduced to Aru i think and that guy is looking ready.Valverde despite he was going hard in the 3rd week of TDF is still the main favorite.His super domestique Quintana will provide him great support and take on the leadership if needed.There is no need to be at AC level Vuelta 2014 to win this even if Froome shows up.

Fixed it for you

 

[WheelofGear]

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I wonder how Piti will handle his Tour fatigue this year.He is a year older and he was on the big peak in the spring.Yep, he also was very tired last year but we could see that he couldnt handle AC and CF pace.TBH I think the rider who will win this vuelta will be around AC level of last year Vuelta.
I think that Astana boys (except Nibali) has bigger chance of winning this thing unless Quintana totally burries himself for Piti.

Aru and Landa will do better then Piti in the Vuelta. Just because they are really explosive riders by themselves, so they should not lose too much time in the punchy stages. And in the real mountain stages (11, 16) they are capable of dropping Bala by at least 1 minute.

The only Tour guy capable of beating the Astana team is Quintana.

He crashed a few days agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHIYSTjS5Hc
He wasn't in the Astana front group yesterday.
He won't get the leadership.
Why are you so convinced he'll be a factor in Vuelta

Because he doesn't give a *** about team orders

But no way Valverde is the main favorite. Astana is too strong for that. Also Quintana is better then Piti in a GT. Look at Froome and Contador last year: the best climbers eventually will come to the fore.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

 

[Pierrot le Fou]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

Except the last time he and Aru faced off in a GT, Valverde beat him, fairly comfortably, whereas Pinot has beaten Piti in a GT.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

I don't think that's been the case so far this year but Aru should be fresher at least.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Henao (in case Froome is not there)

If Froome is there, it's game over for the rest.

When has Froome ever done two GT's in the same year at the level of the best? I don't think we can count Froome in as a favorite even if he shows up until stage 6 (or whenever the first real mountain is). That goes for all the people who went to the Tour - Bardet, Pinot, TJ, Nibali, Purito, Piti. Valverde and Rodriguez have pedigree in two good consecutive GT's a year, the rest don't. Nibali can do two (2010: 1,3 2011: 2/3,7, 2013: 1,2) but they are all Giro - Vuelta. I still believe that Valverde isn't really that good a GT rider anymore. Quality wise in Gt's he is below Aru, the Big 4, above TJ, Pinot, Peraud, Pozzo. But Pozzo is fresh. If Pozzo arrives in top shape then he will podium. Henao is a wildcard and will top-5 or flop.

Quality wise in GT's he is below Aru HOW?