Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[ray j willings]

If Froome rode and he lost "most likely" That is no slur on his tour win. It's a new race.
I just want to see Astana go bonkers again but this time with Nibs.
Good for Quintana for racing. Hows he going to handle Astana or Valverde " he will ride for himself" We could have movie wars.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

+1.
I thought the same thing. I think he wants to pull a Horner!

 

[Escarabajo]

Nibali needs to outperform Aru, otherwise his position as Astana's premiere GC rider will be under threat next year.

No it won't, you saw how Contador played with Aru in the giro? Even if aru performs better, nibali is still 2 classes above him

Not sure about that.

People yet again think cycling is static.

Andy Schleck Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali were all born iirc in the space of a few weeks in the summer of 1985.

A few years ago Andy Schleck was three or four classes above Nibali who was 25 classes above Froome.

A few years later, Froome is three or four classes above Nibali who is 25 classes above Andy Schleck.

things change. If they didn't Phillipe Gilbert would have won about 10 monuments since 2010. If they didn't, Contador would have won a TDF in the last 5 years.

Aru is younger than Nibali was when he made his last super step up and younger than froome was before he was able to crack top 50's with any consistency. Nibali could also drop off at any time like Contador and others have. Or Nibali might improve further and Aru gets even worse. You never know. You can't ever be sure with cycling, or any sport for that matter, apart from maybe tennis where the same people do dominate for 10 years.

+1
I will use this post everytime people start making assumptions or splitting hairs based on recent events. It works but not always. Cycling changes. And sometimes it changes quickly. One day you have Froome killing it at the Tour and few weeks later cannot hang with the group with local Americans at the US Pro Challenge.

Your example to prove hitch's point is terrible, completely besides the point.

You are probably right. But what is the difference between years and months!

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

+1.
I thought the same thing. I think he wants to pull a Horner!

Horner did more attacks in the Vuelta he won than Frank has done in his whole career.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

If he can do a Horner, that would be awesome!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-hoping-utah-can-propel-him-to-vuelta-success/

Frank Schleck is the perfect example to me of a rider who should have focused on the other two grand tours at times throughout his career. Usually more mountains and less time trials, and as a GC rider Frank was very good, but not really quite at the level of the top Tour guys. My guess is that it is too late for him to podium the Vuelta, even with some strong focus on it.

I agree. He hasn't consistently climbed with the elite gc riders since before Andy's crash. He's been about 3rd tier in terms of climbing ability since then and often even lower. It's very curious the choices some riders make over the course of their careers. Frank was never going to win the Tour, with his abysmal tt skills, connected at the hip riding habits with Andy and their bizarre tactical sense. A year or two of focusing on the Giro/Vuelta would have certainly given him a better chance at a grand tour overall win. Oh well.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

If he can do a Horner, that would be awesome!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-hoping-utah-can-propel-him-to-vuelta-success/

Frank Schleck is the perfect example to me of a rider who should have focused on the other two grand tours at times throughout his career. Usually more mountains and less time trials, and as a GC rider Frank was very good, but not really quite at the level of the top Tour guys. My guess is that it is too late for him to podium the Vuelta, even with some strong focus on it.

I agree. He hasn't consistently climbed with the elite gc riders since before Andy's crash. He's been about 3rd tier in terms of climbing ability since then and often even lower. It's very curious the choices some riders make over the course of their careers. Frank was never going to win the Tour, with his abysmal tt skills, connected at the hip riding habits with Andy and their bizarre tactical sense. A year or two of focusing on the Giro/Vuelta would have certainly given him a better chance at a grand tour overall win. Oh well.

His climbing wasn't that bad durning the 2014 Tour, not great but pretty decent His big problem was crashing early and loosing over 8 minutes on the cobbles.

 

[Valv.Piti]

1. Quintana
2. Landa
3. Valverde

I dont actually think this will be the top-3, but I can only dream. I dont think Nibali and Aru got it. Tejay will be exciting, but nah - top-5? Majka? Maybe good for a top-5 since he seems to have built his season towards this particular race. Rodriguez should do well as always, maybe a stage win, but he can't win with a flat 40 ITT and seems to have declined on longer climbs the past from 2014 onwards. Froome is obviously the big if in this race, but I doubt he can win it. 2012 is a long time ago, but he declined drastically against peak Rodriguez/Valverde and a hungry Contador.

 

[Singer01]

Honestly, i don't have any clue at all. that is why the vuelta is always so refreshing.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

If he can do a Horner, that would be awesome!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-hoping-utah-can-propel-him-to-vuelta-success/

Frank Schleck is the perfect example to me of a rider who should have focused on the other two grand tours at times throughout his career. Usually more mountains and less time trials, and as a GC rider Frank was very good, but not really quite at the level of the top Tour guys. My guess is that it is too late for him to podium the Vuelta, even with some strong focus on it.

I agree. He hasn't consistently climbed with the elite gc riders since before Andy's crash. He's been about 3rd tier in terms of climbing ability since then and often even lower. It's very curious the choices some riders make over the course of their careers. Frank was never going to win the Tour, with his abysmal tt skills, connected at the hip riding habits with Andy and their bizarre tactical sense. A year or two of focusing on the Giro/Vuelta would have certainly given him a better chance at a grand tour overall win. Oh well.

His climbing wasn't that bad durning the 2014 Tour, not great but pretty decent His big problem was crashing early and loosing over 8 minutes on the cobbles.

He must have spent too much time next to Zubeldia, because nobody noticed him.

 

[LanLions]

1. Schleck
2. Valverde
3. Van Garderen

Genuinely think that this will be the top three. Can't see any of the BIG names challenging in the third week after having rode the tour and I think that this years Giro was made too difficult by Astana for Aru and Landa to win.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

1. Schleck
2. Valverde
3. Van Garderen

Genuinely think that this will be the top three. Can't see any of the BIG names challenging in the third week after having rode the tour and I think that this years Giro was made too difficult by Astana for Aru and Landa to win.

Shleck? He will be no where near the big riders. Nibali, Aru, Valverde, Quintana, Jrod, Landa, TJVG, Pozzovivo, and more will all be ahead of him....imo of course; if I was a betting man, I'd bet on it.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

+1.
I thought the same thing. I think he wants to pull a Horner!

Horner did more attacks in the Vuelta he won than Frank has done in his whole career.

True, but if you look back you'll see that Frank has attacked maybe twice in his career:

Amstel Gold 2006 and Alpe d'Huez 2006

So he's pretty much at 100% success when he does attack and he also wins big

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

1. Schleck
2. Valverde
3. Van Garderen

Genuinely think that this will be the top three. Can't see any of the BIG names challenging in the third week after having rode the tour and I think that this years Giro was made too difficult by Astana for Aru and Landa to win.

Shleck? He will be no where near the big riders. Nibali, Aru, Valverde, Quintana, Jrod, Landa, TJVG, Pozzovivo, and more will all be ahead of him....imo of course; if I was a betting man, I'd bet on it.

Schleck didn't climb too badly in the 2014 tour to say that he hadn't completed a grand tour since 2011. I think freshness will play a part like it did in 2013 and he'll do a Horner

 

[staubsauger]

Schleck is a weaker climber as well as time trialist than Pozzovivo nowadays, though.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Call me crazy, but if I was a betting man I would put some money on Frank Schleck to make the podium or at least top 5.

+1.
I thought the same thing. I think he wants to pull a Horner!

Horner did more attacks in the Vuelta he won than Frank has done in his whole career.

True, but if you look back you'll see that Frank has attacked maybe twice in his career:

Amstel Gold 2006 and Alpe d'Huez 2006

So he's pretty much at 100% success when he does attack and he also wins big

I'm eager to see his descending skills on roads like this one:

 

[SkyTears]

the Inner Ring ‏@inrng 1h1 hour ago
Chris Froome to decide on Vuelta "in a week to 10 days" says @lequipe after talking to him at Castillon-la-Bataille criterium in SW France

the Inner Ring ‏@inrng 1h1 hour ago
For a clue on Vuelta @lequipe says Froome did a 4 hour ride yesterday... while the other participants sat down for lunch with the organisers
11 retweets 10 favorites

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

the Inner Ring ‏@inrng 1h1 hour ago
Chris Froome to decide on Vuelta "in a week to 10 days" says @lequipe after talking to him at Castillon-la-Bataille criterium in SW France

the Inner Ring ‏@inrng 1h1 hour ago
For a clue on Vuelta @lequipe says Froome did a 4 hour ride yesterday... while the other participants sat down for lunch with the organisers
11 retweets 10 favorites

If you're deciding to do a race a week before it then it usually means you're not in great shape. Have a rest Chris.

 

[SergeDeM]

In my dreamworld this would be a Quintana vs Nibali (+ Astana supporting cast) affair.

 

[Descender]

Me thinks Froome will ride and win.

 

[SergeDeM]

I can't see Froome winning this if he rides it. He doesn't appear to have the best endurance. His third week in the Tour is usually his worst, and the time he led the team at the Vuelta (2012, after riding the Tour for Wiggins) he paid dearly for his previous effort in July.

 

[Arredondo]

Frank Schleck to win or podium the Vuelta? What did i miss the past weeks?

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

1. Schleck
2. Valverde
3. Van Garderen

Genuinely think that this will be the top three. Can't see any of the BIG names challenging in the third week after having rode the tour and I think that this years Giro was made too difficult by Astana for Aru and Landa to win.

Shleck? He will be no where near the big riders. Nibali, Aru, Valverde, Quintana, Jrod, Landa, TJVG, Pozzovivo, and more will all be ahead of him....imo of course; if I was a betting man, I'd bet on it.

Schleck didn't climb too badly in the 2014 tour to say that he hadn't completed a grand tour since 2011. I think freshness will play a part like it did in 2013 and he'll do a Horner

Can you give me a good reason based on his season this year? I don't care about what happened in 2011 or 2014. That doesn't change what level he has been at this year. He's had injuries, he's older, even in 2014 he wouldn't have won the Vuelta had he been "fresh." A "fresh" Shleck isn't that strong. What are you basing your statement on?

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

1. Schleck
2. Valverde
3. Van Garderen

Genuinely think that this will be the top three. Can't see any of the BIG names challenging in the third week after having rode the tour and I think that this years Giro was made too difficult by Astana for Aru and Landa to win.

Shleck? He will be no where near the big riders. Nibali, Aru, Valverde, Quintana, Jrod, Landa, TJVG, Pozzovivo, and more will all be ahead of him....imo of course; if I was a betting man, I'd bet on it.

Schleck didn't climb too badly in the 2014 tour to say that he hadn't completed a grand tour since 2011. I think freshness will play a part like it did in 2013 and he'll do a Horner

Can you give me a good reason based on his season this year? I don't care about what happened in 2011 or 2014. That doesn't change what level he has been at this year. He's had injuries, he's older, even in 2014 he wouldn't have won the Vuelta had he been "fresh." A "fresh" Shleck isn't that strong. What are you basing your statement on?

I think the assumption that Schleck is suddenly a mediocre climber has no basis. You say that you don't care about 2011 and 2014 but they are important - If a rider hasn't completed a grand tour for two seasons and hasn't raced for one and a half entirely, to then go to the tour and finish 12th after losing 10 minutes in crashes and on the cobbles is quite impressive. So now that he heads to Vuelta where the competition is at a lower level (due to fatigue) and he is fresh.

People are underestimating fatigue here, the Giro was harder than it has been in years (at least back to 2011) and the Tour was also raced harder than previous years so I just cannot see the big names that everyone is mentioning being good enough in the third week. This years Vuelta will certainly be won by an outsider a la Cobo, Horner.

Concerning Schleck, we'll know more after Utah, but he's looking good so far and was off the front yesterday. I think he'll deffo be up there with the best in the Vuelta.

 

[phanatic]

Re:

Frank Schleck to win or podium the Vuelta? What did i miss the past weeks?

The battle of the big four is past. We had waited a year, and now we are sick of them. Bring on the second and third stringers. Fabio, Frank, and Fatancur to podium.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Frank Schleck to win or podium the Vuelta? What did i miss the past weeks?

Remember the Horner? Santiago? Cobo? Froome?
It is the perfect time and place!