Vuelta speculation

[Valv.Piti]

I definitely think he was stronger than Yates and Meintjens this Tour, but not the 6 best riders.

 

[Climber123]

If we would still talk about in his prime Contador I'd agree that he would be one of the favorites but I don't see why the guy who only finished 9th at the tour should suddenly be able to improve so much that he wins the vuelta.

What was his ranking since stage 13? Clearly he was stronger than 9th suggested in the last week.

The current GC:

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 83:55:16
2 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:54
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:20
4 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:02:21
5 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:03:05
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:04:42
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:06:14
8 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:08:20
9 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:08:49
10 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb 0:09:25

Contador wasn't stronger than any of the guys above him.
Had Porte, Valverde finished he wouldnt have been in top 10.

He did 2 long-range attacks since last Friday and still didn't drop on the other days. The others did zero. Sorry yesterday showed what should have been without the crashes.

 

[Valv.Piti]

No, yesterday showed Contador is great on short, hilly time trials which we already knew. You can try to extrapolate that all you want.

 

[silvergrenade]

If we would still talk about in his prime Contador I'd agree that he would be one of the favorites but I don't see why the guy who only finished 9th at the tour should suddenly be able to improve so much that he wins the vuelta.

What was his ranking since stage 13? Clearly he was stronger than 9th suggested in the last week.

The current GC:

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 83:55:16
2 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:54
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:20
4 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:02:21
5 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:03:05
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:04:42
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:06:14
8 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:08:20
9 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:08:49
10 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb 0:09:25

Contador wasn't stronger than any of the guys above him.
Had Porte, Valverde finished he wouldnt have been in top 10.

He did 2 long-range attacks since last Friday and still didn't drop on the other days. The others did zero. Sorry yesterday showed what should have been without the crashes.

Yup.
2 long range attacks and he was let go by the peloton, so, it would actually mean he is ahead than his shape suggests because of the time gained by those attacks...
Others attacking or not attacking is not the question really. The GC is not an attacking competition.
He didnt drop on other days...What race did you watch dude?
He showed nothing for 3 weeks but yesterday was the true sense of his form. Cool man. :lol: :lol:

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

I definitely think he was stronger than Yates and Meintjens this Tour, but not the 6 best riders.

Agreed, except I'd say Barguil below Contador was also stronger than him.

But anyway, I expect Contador to finish on the podium in Spain (unless he decides to throw it away in a long range bid for red that ultimately fails)

 

[Climber123]

I just wonder how much Martin and Aru would have cracked after going long-range twice in a week.

 

[TomLPC]

Nicolas Roche will likely challenge for a top 10 and potentially a top 5

Depends who BMC bring.

Porte might be recovered and want to start his 12-month GT treble.


I presume a fractured lumbar is too serious an injury for Ion Izagirre to make it back to racing in time for the Vuelta?

Has richard indicated that he could ride? I thought he was completely screwed up

That would be really interesting

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

I definitely think he was stronger than Yates and Meintjens this Tour, but not the 6 best riders.

How would we ever know how strong Meintjes was?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I definitely think he was stronger than Yates and Meintjens this Tour, but not the 6 best riders.

How would we ever know how strong Meintjes was?

Because we know Meintjens was at his limit all of the time, thats why he was content with just following all the time. Duh.

 

[Climber123]

Re:

No, yesterday showed Contador is great on short, hilly time trials which we already knew. You can try to extrapolate that all you want.

He wouldn't have been that great if the TT was stage 10-12...

 

[Brullnux]

If we would still talk about in his prime Contador I'd agree that he would be one of the favorites but I don't see why the guy who only finished 9th at the tour should suddenly be able to improve so much that he wins the vuelta.

What was his ranking since stage 13? Clearly he was stronger than 9th suggested in the last week.

The current GC:

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 83:55:16
2 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:54
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:20
4 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:02:21
5 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:03:05
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:04:42
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:06:14
8 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:08:20
9 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:08:49
10 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb 0:09:25

Contador wasn't stronger than any of the guys above him.
Had Porte, Valverde finished he wouldnt have been in top 10.

Bollocks, and you know it. If Contador hadn't crashed, twice, on stage 9, then he wouldn't have lost those 4+ minutes, and would probably have finished with Quintana a minute down. There, take back three minutes. He probably was slightly affected by those crashes, and would not have capitulated so badly on stage 13, and perhaps lost 30 seconds. Then, of course, he wouldn't have got in the break to Foix, but the time he made up there is more or less what he lost the previous day. And had he not tried to attack from so far out on the Galibier stage (setting the Croix de Fer record), he would have been much fresher the next day and beaten Yates. He was far stronger than Meintjes, and Yates too was unimpressive, far more so than Contador

 

[Climber123]

Plus he crashed twice again on stage 11

 

[DFA123]

If we would still talk about in his prime Contador I'd agree that he would be one of the favorites but I don't see why the guy who only finished 9th at the tour should suddenly be able to improve so much that he wins the vuelta.

What was his ranking since stage 13? Clearly he was stronger than 9th suggested in the last week.

The current GC:

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 83:55:16
2 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:54
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:20
4 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:02:21
5 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:03:05
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:04:42
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:06:14
8 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:08:20
9 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:08:49
10 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb 0:09:25

Contador wasn't stronger than any of the guys above him.
Had Porte, Valverde finished he wouldnt have been in top 10.

Bollocks, and you know it. If Contador hadn't crashed, twice, on stage 9, then he wouldn't have lost those 4+ minutes, and would probably have finished with Quintana a minute down. There, take back three minutes. He probably was slightly affected by those crashes, and would not have capitulated so badly on stage 13, and perhaps lost 30 seconds. Then, of course, he wouldn't have got in the break to Foix, but the time he made up there is more or less what he lost the previous day. And had he not tried to attack from so far out on the Galibier stage (setting the Croix de Fer record), he would have been much fresher the next day and beaten Yates. He was far stronger than Meintjes, and Yates too was unimpressive, far more so than Contador

But without those crashes and time losses earlier on in the race, he wouldn't have been allowed several minutes up the road on the Col d'Agnes and Croix de Fer, so could have ended up losing more time there. This is the problem with hypotheticals, you can't just look at one isolated factor.

 

[LaFlorecita]

If we would still talk about in his prime Contador I'd agree that he would be one of the favorites but I don't see why the guy who only finished 9th at the tour should suddenly be able to improve so much that he wins the vuelta.

What was his ranking since stage 13? Clearly he was stronger than 9th suggested in the last week.

The current GC:

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 83:55:16
2 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:54
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:20
4 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:02:21
5 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:03:05
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:04:42
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:06:14
8 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:08:20
9 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:08:49
10 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb 0:09:25

Contador wasn't stronger than any of the guys above him.
Had Porte, Valverde finished he wouldnt have been in top 10.

Bollocks, and you know it. If Contador hadn't crashed, twice, on stage 9, then he wouldn't have lost those 4+ minutes, and would probably have finished with Quintana a minute down. There, take back three minutes. He probably was slightly affected by those crashes, and would not have capitulated so badly on stage 13, and perhaps lost 30 seconds. Then, of course, he wouldn't have got in the break to Foix, but the time he made up there is more or less what he lost the previous day. And had he not tried to attack from so far out on the Galibier stage (setting the Croix de Fer record), he would have been much fresher the next day and beaten Yates. He was far stronger than Meintjes, and Yates too was unimpressive, far more so than Contador

To say if Porte and Valverde hadn't crashed he would have finished outside top-10... yeah, in that case you must consider Contador's crashes as well.
I'm pretty sure he would have been at least top-5 and who knows, perhaps even top-3. Either way, it seems foolish to argue that Yates and Meintjes were stronger.

 

[DFA123]

Could really do with Contador and Aru showing up to add a bit of star quality to the GC battle, other wise it's going to be incredibly dull watching Froome way out ahead of a fading Nibali and a bunch of guys trying to defend their 3rd place.

 

[cantpedal]

If we would still talk about in his prime Contador I'd agree that he would be one of the favorites but I don't see why the guy who only finished 9th at the tour should suddenly be able to improve so much that he wins the vuelta.

What was his ranking since stage 13? Clearly he was stronger than 9th suggested in the last week.

The current GC:

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 83:55:16
2 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:54
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:20
4 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:02:21
5 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:03:05
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:04:42
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:06:14
8 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:08:20
9 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:08:49
10 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb 0:09:25

Contador wasn't stronger than any of the guys above him.
Had Porte, Valverde finished he wouldnt have been in top 10.

Bollocks, and you know it. If Contador hadn't crashed, twice, on stage 9, then he wouldn't have lost those 4+ minutes, and would probably have finished with Quintana a minute down. There, take back three minutes. He probably was slightly affected by those crashes, and would not have capitulated so badly on stage 13, and perhaps lost 30 seconds. Then, of course, he wouldn't have got in the break to Foix, but the time he made up there is more or less what he lost the previous day. And had he not tried to attack from so far out on the Galibier stage (setting the Croix de Fer record), he would have been much fresher the next day and beaten Yates. He was far stronger than Meintjes, and Yates too was unimpressive, far more so than Contador

To say if Porte and Valverde hadn't crashed he would have finished outside top-10... yeah, in that case you must consider Contador's crashes as well.
I'm pretty sure he would have been at least top-5 and who knows, perhaps even top-3. Either way, it seems foolish to argue that Yates and Meintjes were stronger.

So your saying that without his crashes and mechanicals Froome would be up 10 min? :lol:

All of this is unreasonable but fun speculation... the race dynamics change with each event, crash, mechanical, rider decision etc etc etc- there is no knowing only the hopes of each riders fans

 

[Valv.Piti]

Lets reserve the Contador-talk for that particular thread, no point in letting the usual discussions flow into this

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Could really do with Contador and Aru showing up to add a bit of star quality to the GC battle, other wise it's going to be incredibly dull watching Froome way out ahead of a fading Nibali and a bunch of guys trying to defend their 3rd place.

Agree, but my feeling is that Aru won't go, or if he does, I doubt that he'll recover and be a factor over the three weeks.

 

[Climber123]

Re:

Lets reserve the Contador-talk for that particular thread, no point in letting the usual discussions flow into this

Sure, who will win the Vuelta? I say it's Contador

 

[Leinster]

Re:

I just wonder how much Martin and Aru would have cracked after going long-range twice in a week.

Yeah, imagine how much time Martin would have lost if he had crashed heavily on the first mountain stage and spent the whole rest of the race trying to recover... oh wait.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Could really do with Contador and Aru showing up to add a bit of star quality to the GC battle, other wise it's going to be incredibly dull watching Froome way out ahead of a fading Nibali and a bunch of guys trying to defend their 3rd place.

Agree, but my feeling is that Aru won't go, or if he does, I doubt that he'll recover and be a factor over the three weeks.

Yeah, I'm sceptical that he will be a factor as well, but his form peaks and valleys are quite unpredictable compared with most riders, so you never know. I guess it could depend on how true this story about him having bronchitis is; if that was the reason for him fading at the Tour then maybe he'll think he can bounce back at the Vuelta.

 

[Netserk]

Contador will win the Vuelta.

 

[Climber123]

Re: Re:

I just wonder how much Martin and Aru would have cracked after going long-range twice in a week.

Yeah, imagine how much time Martin would have lost if he had crashed heavily on the first mountain stage and spent the whole rest of the race trying to recover... oh wait.

Didn't cause him to lose 4min on that stage. He had already crested the top of Chat

 

[Brullnux]

If we would still talk about in his prime Contador I'd agree that he would be one of the favorites but I don't see why the guy who only finished 9th at the tour should suddenly be able to improve so much that he wins the vuelta.

What was his ranking since stage 13? Clearly he was stronger than 9th suggested in the last week.

The current GC:

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 83:55:16
2 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:54
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:20
4 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:02:21
5 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:03:05
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:04:42
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:06:14
8 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:08:20
9 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:08:49
10 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb 0:09:25

Contador wasn't stronger than any of the guys above him.
Had Porte, Valverde finished he wouldnt have been in top 10.

Bollocks, and you know it. If Contador hadn't crashed, twice, on stage 9, then he wouldn't have lost those 4+ minutes, and would probably have finished with Quintana a minute down. There, take back three minutes. He probably was slightly affected by those crashes, and would not have capitulated so badly on stage 13, and perhaps lost 30 seconds. Then, of course, he wouldn't have got in the break to Foix, but the time he made up there is more or less what he lost the previous day. And had he not tried to attack from so far out on the Galibier stage (setting the Croix de Fer record), he would have been much fresher the next day and beaten Yates. He was far stronger than Meintjes, and Yates too was unimpressive, far more so than Contador

But without those crashes and time losses earlier on in the race, he wouldn't have been allowed several minutes up the road on the Col d'Agnes and Croix de Fer, so could have ended up losing more time there. This is the problem with hypotheticals, you can't just look at one isolated factor.

He lost time on Galibier anyway, which is exactly where he'd have come without doing the long range attack. So I don't consider that to be an issue. And I've taken Stage 14 into consideration already.

 

[DFA123]

He lost time on Galibier anyway, which is exactly where he'd have come without doing the long range attack. So I don't consider that to be an issue. And I've taken Stage 14 into consideration already.

Oh yeah, my bad. As fun as it is to discuss hypotheticals though, I think that ultimately the best way to look at it is that after a three week race, everyone finishes where they deserve to. One day races may be a bit different because luck plays more of a role, but Yates and Meintjes certainly both did a decent job of staying out of trouble all race, which is half the battle.

Back on topic, I wonder what role Simon Yates will have at the Vuelta? Would be nice to see him let of the leash to stage hunt, rather than just looking after his brother or going for another boring top 10 GC.