Vuelta speculation

[Eclipse]

Ilnur the Great's first GT win incoming

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I hope that Bora will send Konrad to the Vuelta, it's probably the gt that suits him the most.

I'd be disappointed if they don't send him and I also wouldn't really understand why they should do that. As you said the race suits him and he was pretty strong in the last week of the giro

 

[fauniera]

I think Konrad is better suited to classics than Grand Tours. He should focus on the the autumn races in Quebec and Italy.

 

[yaco]

Froome will easily win the Vuelta - My smoky is Zakharin who should podium - Great chance for the young MS riders to experience a GT in a quasi leadership role.

 

[ontheroad]

Froome to win the Vuelta, the route suits him and his comments make it sound like he is up for the challenge. Given how sky have effectively killed the Tour since 2012, the Vuelta is a race I really look forward to. At least if Froome wins this it is less likely to be done by sucking wheels and grinding out tempo. Zakarin and Contador to make up the podium.

 

[TMP402]

Well, we'll know how serious Froome is by how many boozy crits he does in the next couple of weeks.

 

[JS10]

Having just seen the route I find it difficult to imagine anyone beating Froome. The Stage 16 time trial will be fatal to most of the GC contenders leaving them at least 2mins behind.The chances of anyone overturning that sort of a defeceit going up that piece of hell called the Angliru are less than finding Rocking Horse ***!

 

[Leinster]

Having just seen the route I find it difficult to imagine anyone beating Froome. The Stage 16 time trial will be fatal to most of the GC contenders leaving them at least 2mins behind.The chances of anyone overturning that sort of a defeceit going up that piece of hell called the Angliru are less than finding Rocking Horse ****!

I think the hope is that Froome has struggled in the past on proper steep gradients like the Angliru, and that a featherweight true climber might be able to get back those 2 minutes with a well timed attack on an isolated Froome. Also, the likes of Nibali and Contador are experienced enough at GT riding and TTing that they might not necessarily give up as much as 2' over 39km; certainly Bertie would be disappointed to concede over a minute.

Obviously this is all conditional on Sky being weaker than at the Tour. Which is also not a given.

 

[Red Rick]

Last year, Contador was weak as hell and lost less than 2 minutes. If Contador or Nibali or maybe even Zakarin hang with Froome uphill, they'll lose less than 2 minutes in that TT.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

Last year, Contador was weak as hell and lost less than 2 minutes. If Contador or Nibali or maybe even Zakarin hang with Froome uphill, they'll lose less than 2 minutes in that TT.

How is Zakarin in the hot conditions?
Tbh, I cant remember one race where he did well where there were warm conditions...

 

[liamito]

Re: Re:

Last year, Contador was weak as hell and lost less than 2 minutes. If Contador or Nibali or maybe even Zakarin hang with Froome uphill, they'll lose less than 2 minutes in that TT.

How is Zakarin in the hot conditions?
Tbh, I cant remember one race where he did well where there were warm conditions...

He was flying in last years TdF with just little preparation after his terrible Giro crash.

 

[Rollthedice]

There's a 13.8k TTT and a 42K ITT, out of all the GC contenders apart from Contador which we don't know if he'll participate, I'd say the closest to Froome could be Nibali with a combined loss of about 1'30". This route offers plenty of opportunities to reverse this deficit and I am not talking only about the 9 summit finishes. Froome wasn't able to drop anybody of importance during three weeks in France, I'm not sure how he can do this with Le Tour in his legs against fresher and I dare say more quality opponents. Nibali is not Uran. Froome is the favorite and do underestimate Nibali, he is the best when he's the underdog. Question is if he is able to replicate or top his Giro form.

 

[May0maniac]

One thing is sure, Nibali isn't the kind of guy who waits for an opponent.

 

[staubsauger]

Zakarin is a pretty handy tt'er if he stays upright. Would expect him to be the man to beat for Froome to be honest. At least if Zakarocket repeats his Giro shape!

 

[Red Rick]

If Nibali reaches Giro 2016 last week form he's in with a fight. Hell, this years last week stands a chance. I don't believe Froome will magically be better in the Vuelta than in the Tour. Sky would never risk that or plan on that. I expect him to be Vuelta 2016 level at best, and that was, excluding Froome and Quintana, a garbage field.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Zakarin is a pretty handy tt'er if he stays upright. Would expect him to be the man to beat for Froome to be honest. At least if Zakarocket repeats his Giro shape!

Then again he wasn't really good in the giro TT's. Nibali beat him twice.

 

[Red Rick]

Man, looking at the Giro, I really think Zakarin is as dangerous as Nibali. Zakarin lost the Giro with 1'15" to Dumoulin, he lost 1'50" to Dumoulin on Blockhaus.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Man, looking at the Giro, I really think Zakarin is as dangerous as Nibali. Zakarin lost the Giro with 1'15" to Dumoulin, he lost 1'50" to Dumoulin on Blockhaus.

Zaka is Bardet from TdF with a way better TT.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Also, the Vuelta features much less descending, which is the Kamaz' kryptonite.

 

[JS10]

Having just seen the route I find it difficult to imagine anyone beating Froome. The Stage 16 time trial will be fatal to most of the GC contenders leaving them at least 2mins behind.The chances of anyone overturning that sort of a defeceit going up that piece of hell called the Angliru are less than finding Rocking Horse ****!

I think the hope is that Froome has struggled in the past on proper steep gradients like the Angliru, and that a featherweight true climber might be able to get back those 2 minutes with a well timed attack on an isolated Froome. Also, the likes of Nibali and Contador are experienced enough at GT riding and TTing that they might not necessarily give up as much as 2' over 39km; certainly Bertie would be disappointed to concede over a minute.

Obviously this is all conditional on Sky being weaker than at the Tour. Which is also not a given.

To isolate Froome is much easier said than done as evidenced by the past 3 weeks.In the case of the Angliru it is irrelevant as this is a true mano o mano climb.To win big someone has got to prepared to go solo from the bottom and the only pure climber that I could think of trying it that far out is Quintana in top notch form.If anyone hasnt seen it go to the steephill website and look in the vuelta archives section for 2011-this climb is truly horrifying.AS for the TT Nibali is probably a bit better than 2 minutes down, 1to 1.30 inarrears more likely

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Man, looking at the Giro, I really think Zakarin is as dangerous as Nibali. Zakarin lost the Giro with 1'15" to Dumoulin, he lost 1'50" to Dumoulin on Blockhaus.

Zakarin's deficit at the Giro, like Pinot and Pozzovivo, and also like Contador and Bardet in the Tour, is slightly false given the time they lost early, and were then allowed regain. If Zakarin didn't lose 1:50 on Blockhaus, then Nibali, Quintana etc as well as Dumoulin wouldn't give him as much freedom on following days. 1'15" behind Dumoulin is probably a fair result for Zakarin, and also doesn't allow for Tom's toilet break.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, the shitters are in there obviously, but Pontives is the only situation I can think of for the rest. Zakarin was really the best climber in the last few days of the Giro.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Yeah, the shitters are in there obviously, but Pontives is the only situation I can think of for the rest. Zakarin was really the best climber in the last few days of the Giro.

Apart from Landa, of course.

I'm thinking mainly of the stage 18 to St Ullrich, but 19 is another example, where Zakarin attacked with Pozzovivo and Pinot, while Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali cat-and-moused over who would chase them down. If Zakarin was seen as a threat, he would not have been allowed escape and would have been drawn into the c&m with the podium 3.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah Zakarin is a super intriguing prospect for this upcoming Vuelta. He has been very good in both Giros, but yet doesn't really have anything to show for it. He is probably the most dangerous outsider.

 

[Red Rick]

He's also not afraid to attack at all. He was the only one trying something on the Etna of all places.