Vuelta speculation

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Re:

Blanco said:
Pozzo might be dangerous too...
For the top-5? Sure, maybe even top-3 and a stage win. Lots of opportunities. But I simply can't see him challenge for the win, I don't think his ceiling is that high. Zakarin can, Chaves likewise and obviously Nibali. I think those 3 riders have shown that their top-level can be high enough to win the Vuelta. And then my personal joker and and a rider I think can win if everything falls into place and he doesnt crash: M.A. Lopez. We haven't seen enough, but incredibly high ceiling and we just never know. Could be pulling a Quintana in 2013 TdF-performance for all that I know, he is just that talented.

Then the TdF-guys like Aru, Bardet and Contador, I don't really know. Contador has never tried this, but has obviously done the Giro-Tour which is a tad harder. With decent results everything considering. But I don't think he will be in it to win it, neither do I think Bardet. Aru could potentially be a wildcard given he hasn't raced much, but I think Bardet and Contador are pretty spent.
 
Re:

Red Rick said:
Lesser riders than Contador have managed, and if he feels fresh then I'm sure he'll be very good.
If he feels fresh then he will obviously have decent to good shot, but thats my point. I necessarily don't think he is super fresh after a normal Contador-year with hard spring + TdF, but we don't have any reference on that really given he has never done it.
 
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Valv.Piti said:
Blanco said:
Pozzo might be dangerous too...
For the top-5? Sure, maybe even top-3 and a stage win. Lots of opportunities. But I simply can't see him challenge for the win, I don't think his ceiling is that high. Zakarin can, Chaves likewise and obviously Nibali. I think those 3 riders have shown that their top-level can be high enough to win the Vuelta. And then my personal joker and and a rider I think can win if everything falls into place and he doesnt crash: M.A. Lopez. We haven't seen enough, but incredibly high ceiling and we just never know. Could be pulling a Quintana in 2013 TdF-performance for all that I know, he is just that talented.

Then the TdF-guys like Aru, Bardet and Contador, I don't really know. Contador has never tried this, but has obviously done the Giro-Tour which is a tad harder. With decent results everything considering. But I don't think he will be in it to win it, neither do I think Bardet. Aru could potentially be a wildcard given he hasn't raced much, but I think Bardet and Contador are pretty spent.

Bardet has a big interview in l'equipe today. If he races Vuelta, it won't be for GC. He just wants to have fun.
 
Feb 27, 2016
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Leinster said:
Red Rick said:
Yeah, the shitters are in there obviously, but Pontives is the only situation I can think of for the rest. Zakarin was really the best climber in the last few days of the Giro.
Apart from Landa, of course.

I'm thinking mainly of the stage 18 to St Ullrich, but 19 is another example, where Zakarin attacked with Pozzovivo and Pinot, while Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali cat-and-moused over who would chase them down. If Zakarin was seen as a threat, he would not have been allowed escape and would have been drawn into the c&m with the podium 3.

The Landa hype is boring
 
can movistar team look smth like this?



Vuelta a Burgos‏ @VueltaABurgos 6h6 hours ago
More
Nuevos equipos preinscritos, @Movistar_Team
Jorge Arcas
C Barbero
A. Carapaz
H.Carretero
R. Fernández
Dani Moreno
Pedrero
Marc Soler
 
Re:

capuldemetal said:
can movistar team look smth like this?



Vuelta a Burgos‏ @VueltaABurgos 6h6 hours ago
More
Nuevos equipos preinscritos, @Movistar_Team
Jorge Arcas
C Barbero
A. Carapaz
H.Carretero
R. Fernández
Dani Moreno
Pedrero
Marc Soler
Very plausible. Arcas, Soler, Carapaz and Fernandez have been confirmed for La Vuelta by Unzue afaik. Dani Moreno and Barbero are pretty much a gimme. Just needs one more addition. Betancur perhaps, but I think there are some more likely options, such as Winner, Nelson Oliveira, Sutherland.
 
Re:

capuldemetal said:
can movistar team look smth like this?



Vuelta a Burgos‏ @VueltaABurgos 6h6 hours ago
More
Nuevos equipos preinscritos, @Movistar_Team
Jorge Arcas
C Barbero
A. Carapaz
H.Carretero
R. Fernández
Dani Moreno
Pedrero
Marc Soler
Riders expected to do the Tour-Vuelta double (Betancur, Erviti, maybe Sütterlin) won't do any race in between. Non-climbers doing the Vuelta after resting during the Tour (Rojas?, Sutherland?) may be sent to any other race in the team calendar to get some racing miles: Poland, BinckBank (former ENECO) or Tour de l'Ain.
 
Re: Re:

DNP-Old said:
capuldemetal said:
can movistar team look smth like this?



Vuelta a Burgos‏ @VueltaABurgos 6h6 hours ago
More
Nuevos equipos preinscritos, @Movistar_Team
Jorge Arcas
C Barbero
A. Carapaz
H.Carretero
R. Fernández
Dani Moreno
Pedrero
Marc Soler
Very plausible. Arcas, Soler, Carapaz and Fernandez have been confirmed for La Vuelta by Unzue afaik. Dani Moreno and Barbero are pretty much a gimme. Just needs one more addition. Betancur perhaps, but I think there are some more likely options, such as Winner, Nelson Oliveira, Sutherland.
Surprised by Arcas, I would have thought he simply wasn't good enough (same with Pedrero, altho he was actually very good in Tour de Suisse on the climbs) I would like Carretero to ride it, but maybe he is too young. Thats the most talented out of those 3 domestiques IMO, but its still pretty early.

Barbero depends on they are going full stage hunting mode, I somewhat hope they will. Maybe Rojas is better for that role tho, then he can finally get to ride for himself, guy is mightily strong.
 
No way Unzué has Héctor in the Vuelta. He's a neo-pro from within the feeder structure, and has served his apprenticeship doing the minor races and the Northern Classics, we're talking about Marc Soler doing his first GT here. Unzué is notoriously careful with young riders, unless they've proven themselves elsewhere, like Urán did. Carapaz is the nearest to an exception, but then he adapted so quickly to the Spanish amateur scene that he was riding pro races pretty well as a stagiare - and Abarcá only rarely take on stagiares. Héctor is 3-4 years younger than Arcas and Pedrero, turned pro just one year later, and while obviously right now he's a domestique only, he can get over plenty of different terrains and I think the team may want to see him become something like Gorka or Jesús Herrada in time.

Pedrero maybe has a chance. Maybe even Dowsett, after he drew attention to his GT-free streak, as protecting the likes of Soler and Fernández, with the freedom to stagehunt and no GC pressure, will be less paramount and not require the same heavyweight domestiques like Bennati and Erviti. Oliveira is a good choice of rouleur I think. De la Parte just returned to racing in the Prueba Villafranca Ordizia and doesn't seem like an unreasonable shout as a mountain helper and stagehunter. If you compare the squad to the 2011 rudderless team after the disasters befalling the various prospective leaders, he's perhaps in the David López role, but he's capable of winning a stage on this kind of parcours for sure. He likes the heat and he's no mug against the clock, could be useful in a TTT. And what about Gorka, he just returned to racing too, and while he's likely to leave he's also plenty versatile enough to give the team some presence.

A decent selection would then be:
Barbero, Betancur, Carapaz, de la Parte, Fernández, Izagirre, Moreno, Oliveira, Soler, and they can maybe switch out Bananito or de la Parte for a rouleur helper if they feel they lack in that department with only Oliveira and Gorka for that role.
 
Re:

Red Rick said:
Man, looking at the Giro, I really think Zakarin is as dangerous as Nibali. Zakarin lost the Giro with 1'15" to Dumoulin, he lost 1'50" to Dumoulin on Blockhaus.

Hmm... As far as I can see, Ilnur lost 1'56" to Dumoulin and 1'16" to even Nibs in Giro...
 
Winner Anacona, Jorge Arcas, Carlos Betancur, Richard Carapaz, Rubén Fernández, Gorka Izagirre, Dani Moreno, Nelson Oliveira, Antonio Pedrero, Dayer Quintana, José Joaquín Rojas y Marc Soler

This is Movistars preselection. No Barbero is odd.
 
Re:

markene2 said:
Zaka to win barring accidents/crashes

Also, hope Betancur rides the Vuelta, and he maintains some form.

Yes, Zaka's been in decent lead up to this Vuelta. Win may be too much, probably between Froome and Nibs, but podium could be possible. Aru said his glass is half full, but it's at least half empty after two weeks me thinks :cool: