Vuelta speculation

[Pennino]

I constantly read 'Alto de los Muchachos' haha.

Decent route I think. Perfect if Alberto stays upright (usually there's not that much need to be stressed in the flat stages) and rides a bit conservatively. Than he smashes everyone in that last week. Screw it, I fully believe that.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

One of the main features of this year Vuelta parcourse was that considering the stage departure and finish places, Unipublic had chosen the best possible route (or at least one that was not clearly inferior to the best) in those stages most relevant for the GC . This is no longer the case in the Sierra Nevada stage.

No Las Sabinas so that was never the case.

I do like the Pandera change

Las Sabinas was in the route presented in January. People did discuss then two possible options:
1) Climb Monachil, descend and climb the combo Hazallana + Sabinas. This was essentially an extension of the 2013 stage that Horner won and was what many (including myself) predicted.
2) Climb Hazallana, descend and climb the combo Monachil + Sabinas as they did in 2009. This is what was presented in January.
Opinions on what was the best option were inconclusive. Both were better than the modified route through the main road to Sierra Nevada. They do the same amount of climbing in roughly the same distance, but the short descent from Sabinas to the ski station means the average gradient through Sabinas is most of the time in the 7%-8% range vs the 4%-6% of the main road.

Regarding La Pandera, they now do the direct climb from Valdepeñas as rumoured before the presentation. I expected that the hard wall at the base of La Pandera they presented (and have now removed) would derail trains further from the finish. I'm not sure the short wall of Valdepeñas can do the same, but then they remove the 4km of flat before the last 9km of climbing to the summit. Not a big deal of a change.

 

[staubsauger]

Sierra Nevada via the main road is completely irrelevant as long as they ain't gonna go on until the Veleta peak or make it a mtt. Moncoutie / Bert Dietz scenario at best!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

All I can say, is that I can't wait.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

I'm actually not convinced the Hoya de la Mora finish has changed that much? Seems the profile has just been stretched out a lot. Stats "old" final climb 18.4km 5.76%, "new" climb 19.3km 5.65%.
does anyone have profiles?

the middle bit of the climb is different:

The old profile went from El Purche up the northern parallel road (the A-4025) to the traditional Sierra Nevada climb (the A-395) via the Collado de las Sabinas (though people associate Las Sabinas with the full long brutal climb via Hazallanas, the actual Collado de las Sabinas is a high point on this road that they used in 2009, which then continues into Pradollano - the ski resort town usually used as the finish in Sierra Nevada stages.

In 2009 and the original 2017 stage, the riders climb the right-hand profile to the Collado de las Sabinas then do the flat/false flat kilometre which is the last kilometre of the left hand profile backwards until the first junction for Pradollano, at which point they turned back onto the road into Pradollano and finished at the caravan park (some way above where they finished in traditional Sierra Nevada stages, at the bottom of the town, but below Hoya de la Mora, which they'd need to continue uphill to reach) - compare this profile which is what they would have been doing as far as Las Sabinas. That bit they ride in the opposite direction to the left hand profile above is the reason the difference in climb distance/statistics is small, but in terms of difficulty it's quite a significant change, what they're doing is more similar to the last 17km of this traditional side although they're going through Pradollano rather than the Collado de las Sabinas, I think, so the section from 7k to go to 2k to go is different from that profile.

Here's the comparison of the proposed stage up to the last 5k with Télégraphe and Galibier.

I think what they're trying to do by replacing the Las Sabinas stretch with the traditional side is to try to motivate earlier moves; the final climb is essentially one long monster from Monachil if they go by the original plan, as while it's inconsistent, none of the descent/flat sections are long enough to offer real respite; with the shallower second half, they're probably hoping for either riders to feel more incentivized to show aggression on the Alto de Hazallanas, which is much steeper and therefore offers greater opportunities to create separation, or if they do leave it until the final climb, to persuade people to make it tough all the way from El Purche, because although categorized separately, much like Télégraphe and Galibier, El Purche and the Sierra Nevada summits essentially form one climb in most people's reading, no different to how Croix de Fer or the Alto da Torre are one climb. In fact, the classic Seia side of Portugal's signature climb is probably the kind of target they're after, as the August machines often set monster tempos on the early ramps and the main gaps are created between Sabugueiro and Lagoa Comprida, then you have several kilometres of consolidation over the lesser gradients and chasing, which is I suspect what they are hoping for here and the prime motivator of the change.

 

[Escarabajo]

Thanks Libertine. It maybe better. So let's hope for the best.

 

[Valv.Piti]

So whats your opinion on that, Libertine? At that point I dont think big time gaps are that likely, but if I remember correctly theres a rest day afterwards and then a time trial, so it might encourage someone. But they are essentially left with the choice to go from 25-30 km out or to wait to the last 5 kilometers, so Im not super optimistic.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Thanks for the long and detailed response, LS

 

[Red Rick]

I think it would've been best to have Hazallanas+Sabinas as penultimate climb, but I'm not sure how you get down the freaking mountain and back up again, though I suppose you can always finish on the Alguacil like a stage somebody designed eons ago.

My biggest wonder however is; is the road on the south side of the Sierra Nevada usable? I seem to remember there being a road junction a few km below the Pico Veleta thereabouts.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

I think it would've been best to have Hazallanas+Sabinas as penultimate climb, but I'm not sure how you get down the freaking mountain and back up again, though I suppose you can always finish on the Alguacil like a stage somebody designed eons ago.

My biggest wonder however is; is the road on the south side of the Sierra Nevada usable? I seem to remember there being a road junction a few km below the Pico Veleta thereabouts.

You could ascend the A-4025 from Hazallanas through Sabinas to the Cruce above Sierra Nevada, descend back through Pradollano onto the A-395 back down to El Dornajo (where the stage to Hazallanas finished) then turn right back onto the Las Sabinas road, like they did once in a proposed stage on PRC:

If they're prepared to get a bit complicated, you could actually do the proposed stage but climb to Collado de las Sabinas at 2173m from Hazallanas on the A-4025, descend the A-395 all the way to Pinos Genil, circle around to climb El Purche/Monachil as they are doing in the actual stage and then cross over the A-395 that they descended earlier to rejoin the Las Sabinas road and do the finish they originally planned, giving them the same as the original stage but with a longer and tougher first climb.

If they turned off at Las Sabinas at 2173m rather than continuing to the Cruce at around 2370m, too, they wouldn't have to pass through Pradollano, so could do the shallower run-in on the A-395 without it affecting the race so much because though part of it would be both climbed and descended, the finish would be unaffected as it would be going through Pradollano to Hoya de la Mora, and the part both climbed and descended would be nice and wide so as to cause little trouble.

See this map - the yellow road between the climb highlighted in red and the main A-395 highlighted in green would thus be the first part of the descent, whereas after climbing Monachil (not marked on there, but joins the A-395 close to El Dornajo) you could stay on the green road that you descended earlier, but continue through all the switchbacks in Pradollano to the MTF at Hoya de la Mora.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Sierra Nevada seriously confuses me.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

Sierra Nevada seriously confuses me.

Essentially, there are two long roads from Granada to the Pradollano resort.

The first is the main road, the A-395, which goes through Canales, El Dornajo and up the 'classic' route into Pradollano (around 2100m), then you leave it to head up on the town roads through Pradollano to the Cruce (just under 2400m altitude) at the top where you rejoin the main road.

The second goes from Pinos Genil to Güéjar Sierra, up the Hazallanas climb on the GR-3200 to El Dornajo, then on the A-4025 through Las Sabinas to join the A-395 at the top of Pradollano then continuing to the Cruce at just under 2400m, where the town roads converge with the main road and then there's just one road to Pico Veleta, which goes via Hoya de la Mora (and has a side-road that goes to the Borreguiles ski station and IRAM).

There are a couple of roads which join the A-395 on its way from Granada to El Dornajo.
- the A-4206 from Pinos Genil (approx. 1000m altitude), which doesn't fundamentally change the climb but enables it to be linked to Blancares better
- the GR-3202 from Monachil (approx. 1450m altitude), otherwise known as El Purche or the Collado Muerto.

The A-395 (classic Sierra Nevada ascent) and A-4025 (ascent via Collado de Las Sabinas) come close to one another a couple of times, and there are a couple of link roads, which open up race design possibilities.
- the point called El Dornajo (approx. 1680m altitude) where the GR-3200 becomes the A-4025, via a very short linking road. This is also called the Alto de Hazallanas in cycling parlance because it's the end of the Haza Llana road.
- The A-395 itself, at the entrance to Pradollano at 2100m, links to the Collado de las Sabinas at just under 2200m.

This means you can have a mountain pass on the road at several points:
- at the convergence of the A-4026 and A-395
- at the convergence of the GR-3202 and A-395 (just after El Purche/Monachil/Muerto)
- at the commencement of the A-4025 (El Dornajo/Alto de Hazallanas)
- at the convergence of the A-4025 and A-395 (Collado de Las Sabinas)
- at the convergence of the A-395 and the Pradollano urban roads (Pradollano-El Cruce)

I made a handy "metro"-style map of how the roads interact with one another using Paint.
Edit: replaced with a better one

 

[jsem94]

LS, that's brilliant!

 

[TromleTromle]

Re: Re:

Sierra Nevada seriously confuses me.

Essentially, there are two long roads from Granada to the Pradollano resort.

The first is the main road, the A-395, which goes through Canales, El Dornajo and up the 'classic' route into Pradollano (around 2100m), then you leave it to head up on the town roads through Pradollano to the Cruce (just under 2400m altitude) at the top where you rejoin the main road.

The second goes from Pinos Genil to Güéjar Sierra, up the Hazallanas climb on the GR-3200 to El Dornajo, then on the A-4025 through Las Sabinas to join the A-395 at the top of Pradollano then continuing to the Cruce at just under 2400m, where the town roads converge with the main road and then there's just one road to Pico Veleta, which goes via Hoya de la Mora (and has a side-road that goes to the Borreguiles ski station and IRAM).

There are a couple of roads which join the A-395 on its way from Granada to El Dornajo.
- the A-4206 from Pinos Genil (approx. 1000m altitude), which doesn't fundamentally change the climb but enables it to be linked to Blancares better
- the GR-3202 from Monachil (approx. 1450m altitude), otherwise known as El Purche or the Collado Muerto.

The A-395 (classic Sierra Nevada ascent) and A-4025 (ascent via Collado de Las Sabinas) come close to one another a couple of times, and there are a couple of link roads, which open up race design possibilities.
- the point called El Dornajo (approx. 1680m altitude) where the GR-3200 becomes the A-4025, via a very short linking road. This is also called the Alto de Hazallanas in cycling parlance because it's the end of the Haza Llana road.
- The A-395 itself, at the entrance to Pradollano at 2100m, links to the Collado de las Sabinas at just under 2200m.

This means you can have a mountain pass on the road at several points:
- at the convergence of the A-4026 and A-395
- at the convergence of the GR-3202 and A-395 (just after El Purche/Monachil/Muerto)
- at the commencement of the A-4025 (El Dornajo/Alto de Hazallanas)
- at the convergence of the A-4025 and A-395 (Collado de Las Sabinas)
- at the convergence of the A-395 and the Pradollano urban roads (Pradollano-El Cruce)

I made a handy "metro"-style map of how the roads interact with one another using Paint.
Edit: replaced with a better one

Great work! Just miss La Zubia

Seriously: what is the hardest realistic stage taking use of same roads into account on the Veleta mountain?

 

[Nirvana]

According to italian press Aru won't ride because of his rift with Astana (it's almost certain that he'll leave).

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Depends on 'hardest'. I have an upcoming Race Design Thread contribution with a monster stage using these roads For example, a traceur favourite is to do El Purche, then descend to Pinos Genil, climb Hazallanas and Las Sabinas to El Cruce at 2384m, descend through Pradollano back to Pinos Genil and then climb Collado Algüacil. If you didn't want one climb to completely dwarf the others you could climb only as far as Hazallanas on the second climb, which produces an easier stage but brings the hellslopes closer to the end.

If it wasn't too much of a strain on logistics though, I might prefer to climb El Purche then Las Sabinas, then descend back to Pinos Genil via the A-395 (crossing where we climbed on El Purche), then climb through Hazallanas to Las Sabinas and finish in Pradollano.

A slightly amped up version of the above, instead of only going up as far as Las Sabinas the first time, you could climb to the Pradollano Cruce and descend through Pradollano town back onto the main road and down to Pinos Genil, then climb through Hazallanas to Hoya de la Mora.

Many of these options require doubling back on yourself though or doing double loops of the same section. There's always the option to go from La Ragua and Blancares (like in the 2009 Vuelta) but instead of going through Monachil, climbing from Pinos Genil through Hazallanas to Las Sabinas or the Cruce, and descending through El Purche to finish at Cumbres Verdes on the climb they introduced in the 2014 Vuelta (not included on my metro map above, but Monachil is not far from La Zubia which serves as the base of that climb).

At the moment it seems Hoya de la Mora is as high as they're willing to go; Estación de Esquí Borreguiles doesn't add too much as the final kilometre is flat, whereas if they went to IRAM on the same road it kicks back up again for quite a steep uphill finish. Currently the road ceases to be tarmac too high and space and road condition concerns make Pico Veleta itself untenable as an option. The Posiciones de Veleta station at 3100m, however, has a bit of parking space and while much of the race trappings might have to stay back at Pradollano, either in the caravan parking space they used as the finish in 2009 or Hoya de la Mora, it's not more difficult than having finishes at Velefique, Abantos or Ancáres in terms of space concerns.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

I think it would've been best to have Hazallanas+Sabinas as penultimate climb, but I'm not sure how you get down the freaking mountain and back up again, though I suppose you can always finish on the Alguacil like a stage somebody designed eons ago.

My biggest wonder however is; is the road on the south side of the Sierra Nevada usable? I seem to remember there being a road junction a few km below the Pico Veleta thereabouts.

I'll refresh your mind on the south side
viewtopic.php?p=2024172#p2024172

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

According to italian press Aru won't ride because of his rift with Astana (it's almost certain that he'll leave).

Well it's not the first time that sort of thing has happened and won't be the last.

 

[DNP-Old]

Re:

According to italian press Aru won't ride because of his rift with Astana (it's almost certain that he'll leave).

Very good news.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

According to italian press Aru won't ride because of his rift with Astana (it's almost certain that he'll leave).

Very good news.

Why is that?

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

According to italian press Aru won't ride because of his rift with Astana (it's almost certain that he'll leave).

Very good news.

Why is that?

I like Superman Lopez to have full leadership.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think it would've been best to have Hazallanas+Sabinas as penultimate climb, but I'm not sure how you get down the freaking mountain and back up again, though I suppose you can always finish on the Alguacil like a stage somebody designed eons ago.

My biggest wonder however is; is the road on the south side of the Sierra Nevada usable? I seem to remember there being a road junction a few km below the Pico Veleta thereabouts.

I'll refresh your mind on the south side
viewtopic.php?p=2024172#p2024172

great minds think alike

which means this is confirmatiON that my mind is still great albeit seemingly more deranged

thanks by the way

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

According to italian press Aru won't ride because of his rift with Astana (it's almost certain that he'll leave).

Very good news.

Why is that?

I like Superman Lopez to have full leadership.

I think he will be well protected regardless, but it really doesn't matter if he crashes so much. Anyways, the more the merrier, but I can understand Astana not selecting Aru if he chooses to leave.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

According to italian press Aru won't ride because of his rift with Astana (it's almost certain that he'll leave).

Very good news.

Why is that?

I like Superman Lopez to have full leadership.

They need more than 1 leader your know. It might even help Lopez to release the pressure on his shoulders.

 

[Rollthedice]

All stages, maps, profiles are now published:

http://www.lavuelta.com/la-vuelta/2017/us/overall-route.html