Vuelta Stage 18: Suances → Santo Toribio de Liébana - 169 km

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Just to put it out there as I haven't read anybody mention it (apologies if it has been mentioned) but with Froome having a bad day yesterday people are assuming he is done. What is to say that Nibali doesn't have a bad day today? or on the Angliru? There was absolutely no indication the previous days Froome would have a bad day, so why is nobody thinking others may also have a bad day in the next few days? Its been a hard 3 week tour, so anyone in the GC classification could also have a bad day coming up. Heck, even Contador at 3 mins down could win this tour still, going to be an interesting last few days

There's definitely been historical precedent for Froome having bad days in the third week of a Grand Tour - particularly when the racing is hard - and we know how much effort and strain trying to win a double puts on a rider's body. There's a reason most people were expecting Froome to lose time to people this week, the big question was whether a) it would be early enough that there were more opportunities for him to be put in trouble and b) if the others would be close enough to capitalise. Both circumstances have now occurred and the rest of the race really seems on a knife edge.

Nibali on the other hand is typically an excellent third week rider and expectation has always been that he would struggle a bit early but would maintain very good form from the 2nd week onwards.

Of course there is nothing to say nobody else will blow up or something completely insane will happen, but typical logic dictates that Froome will be in a fight to hold his lead now rather than simply defending it like he was at the Tour.

Do you think there is something in the notion that Froome as he is getting older cannot do the explosive steep gradients anymore? At TdF I remember him losing some time on the steep 20% section at the end of Planche des Belles Filles where in 2012 he attacked, then the final climb today was obviously over 20% in many places and he struggled again. thoughts?

I think he did fine on Planche des Belles Filles this year and I think Peyragudes was only a bad day. The last kilometers there were very similar to the ones of Cumbre del Sol where he won in this Vuelta. And let's not forget he was pretty good in Xorret de Catí as well. I think the biggest problem with the climb yesterday is that it's impossible to find a rhythm on the earlier slopes of the climb. Froome usually drops early on climbs like that to find his rhythm while saving a bit of energy so he can later get back the time he lost early on the climb. Lagos de Covadonga last year was the perfect example for that. However when he is simply not strong enough to work his way back to the other gc contenders he obviously loses a lot of time on climbs like this.

 

[jarvo]

Re: Re:

Just to put it out there as I haven't read anybody mention it (apologies if it has been mentioned) but with Froome having a bad day yesterday people are assuming he is done. What is to say that Nibali doesn't have a bad day today? or on the Angliru? There was absolutely no indication the previous days Froome would have a bad day, so why is nobody thinking others may also have a bad day in the next few days? Its been a hard 3 week tour, so anyone in the GC classification could also have a bad day coming up. Heck, even Contador at 3 mins down could win this tour still, going to be an interesting last few days

There's definitely been historical precedent for Froome having bad days in the third week of a Grand Tour - particularly when the racing is hard - and we know how much effort and strain trying to win a double puts on a rider's body. There's a reason most people were expecting Froome to lose time to people this week, the big question was whether a) it would be early enough that there were more opportunities for him to be put in trouble and b) if the others would be close enough to capitalise. Both circumstances have now occurred and the rest of the race really seems on a knife edge.

Nibali on the other hand is typically an excellent third week rider and expectation has always been that he would struggle a bit early but would maintain very good form from the 2nd week onwards.

Of course there is nothing to say nobody else will blow up or something completely insane will happen, but typical logic dictates that Froome will be in a fight to hold his lead now rather than simply defending it like he was at the Tour.

Do you think there is something in the notion that Froome as he is getting older cannot do the explosive steep gradients anymore? At TdF I remember him losing some time on the steep 20% section at the end of Planche des Belles Filles where in 2012 he attacked, then the final climb today was obviously over 20% in many places and he struggled again. thoughts?

I think he did fine on Planche des Belles Filles this year and I think Peyragudes was only a bad day. The last kilometers there were very similar to the ones of Cumbre del Sol where he won in this Vuelta. And let's not forget he was pretty good in Xorret de Catí as well. I think the biggest problem with the climb yesterday is that it's impossible to find a rhythm on the earlier slopes of the climb. Froome usually drops early on climbs like that to find his rhythm while saving a bit of energy so he can later get back the time he lost early on the climb. Lagos de Covadonga last year was the perfect example for that. However when he is simply not strong enough to work his way back to the other gc contenders he obviously loses a lot of time on climbs like this.

I was not saying he had a bad day on Panches des Belles Filles, just that in previous years (2012) he was the one attacking, this year Aru went and in a fairly short distance gained 20 secs on Froome as it gets steep in that final top section.

 

[The Barb]

@jarvo
I definitely think there is something to what you say. It's a curious thing that he is on the brink of winning a GT double he's never been able to do before, while also looking the weakest he has for 5 years.

 

[Eclipse]

Away from Froome and Nibali, my number 1 hope today is that if Contador attacks that Zakarin goes with him and they actually work together. This forum will descend into horror if Zakarin misses the attack and we have Katusha pacing the peloton to defend the fight for third in Bertie's last GT lol

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Vuelta Stage 18: Suances → Santo Toribio de Liébana - 16

@Jarvo
I also don't think he had a bad day on PdBF, after all he only lost time to Dan Martin who is an absolute specialist for this kind of climb. However I think that he had a bad day on Peyragudes since he can still win on these kind of finishes as shown with his stage win in this Vuelta where he also attacked on 20% gradients and dropped everyone.

 

[ThePirate81]

If BOTD will contest the stage win,two names stand out:Alaphilippe and Majka.
This stage looks like the last chance for Bardet,Roche and Atapuma too,cause tomorrow's stage is too easy for them,and Angliru will be the scene for the final GC battle.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

If BOTD will contest the stage win,two names stand out:Alaphilippe and Majka.

And Marczynski.

 

[Inquitus]

5/1 Nibali at the bookies to win the race, I think that's excellent value, essentially betting on him to get up Angliru 1 minute and 16 seconds faster than Froom, with upside that he might steal some time in the interim days as well!

 

[ThePirate81]

Re: Re:

If BOTD will contest the stage win,two names stand out:Alaphilippe and Majka.

And Marczynski.

I think Marczynski will try to get in BOTD tomorrow,it looks like a good stage design for him.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

If BOTD will contest the stage win,two names stand out:Alaphilippe and Majka.
This stage looks like the last chance for Bardet,Roche and Atapuma too,cause tomorrow's stage is too easy for them,and Angliru will be the scene for the final GC battle.

I'm afraid you havent looked carefully at the last climb of tomorrow's stage. Hint: it has 2km at double digits gradient. Good puncheurs should be able to get rid of average breakaway riders.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Monfort abandons

 

[python]

dont see the top 3 gc spots change today, though a few seconds here or there will probably move...

 

[The Barb]

Agree this is a likely breakaway win but with the flat start it's not easy to predict. Alaphilippe the obvious. I think Luis Leon Sanchez is clearly in career decline but this could be a final major win for him.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re: Vuelta Stage 18: Suances → Santo Toribio de Liébana - 16

There are rumors of an ambush, guys; let's see if it plays out.

 

[Asturiano]

Riders trying to get away in the opening kilometers of #LV2017, but the peloton isn't keen on letting them.

 

[Lexman]

is there a webstream already? sporza is from 15.00 ...

 

[gerundium]

Once again it's a massive fight to get in the break. If Froome is indeed getting slightly weaker this is very good for the other contenders, making the stage as hard as possible. This could make a surprise attack on the climbs in the end more likely.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

is there a webstream already? sporza is from 15.00 ...

According to the Spanish TV program guide they start at 14:45, but I don't know if they get live images from that start time.

 

[Forever The Best]

I think today will be a massive anti-climax. Even though the stage is well designed I don't think Fuente de v3 (Formigal was v2) is possible against this Sky team unfortunately.

 

[Lexman]

Jungels with 10 seconds ahead of the bunch

 

[Rollthedice]

All together now, some 45k in the first hour.

 

[telencefalus]

not very high speed in the first 51 km just 42,5 km/h they have to go faster if they want Froome to crack completly

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Away from Froome and Nibali, my number 1 hope today is that if Contador attacks that Zakarin goes with him and they actually work together. This forum will descend into horror if Zakarin misses the attack and we have Katusha pacing the peloton to defend the fight for third in Bertie's last GT lol

Unfortunately, I think that will happen.

 

[Lexman]

Re:

not very high speed in the first 51 km just 42,5 km/h they have to go faster if they want Froome to crack completly

you seem to be a specialist in speed moyenne so tell us how fast should they ride to crack Froome?

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

not very high speed in the first 51 km just 42,5 km/h they have to go faster if they want Froome to crack completly

you seem to be a specialist in speed moyenne so tell us how fast should they ride to crack Froome?

First hour confirmed at 46.5 km