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Was Andy Schleck clean? His reaction to Contador's positive will be very revealing!

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This is a graph of the GC's average speeds in the TdF going back to 1937, the year derailleurs were introduced to the TdF.

dopedcycliststdfspeedgr.jpg


The speeds trended upward at a normal dispersion until the early 1960s, when they leveled out for more than 20 years. They remained fairly regular until the late 1980s except for the anomalous spikes at 1971 (Merckx #3) and 1981 & 82 (Hinault #s 3&4).

The first GC to average 36 kph was Roger Walkowiak in 1956.The fastest earlier finish was 34.6 kph.

Four years later, in 1960, Gastone Nencini became the first GC to average 37 kph.

Eleven years later, in 1971, Eddy Merckx became the first GC to average 38 kph. It was Merckx third win of an eventual five (1969-72, 1974) and the only one averaging more than 36 kph.

Twenty-one years later, in 1992, Miguel Indurain became the first GC to average 39 kph. It was Indurain's second win of an eventual five (1991-1995). He averaged 39.0 kph +/- 0.504 kph in all five of his wins.

The second place finishers 1991-1995 averaged 38.72, 39.47, 38.67, 38.35, 39.16 kph.

Four years later, in 1999, Lance Pharmstrong became the first GC to average 40 kph. For the next six years, his average speed was 40.0 kph +/- 0.5 except 2005, which was 41.654 kph, the fastest TdF in history.

The second place finishers 1999-2005 averaged 40.22, 39.52, 40.03, 39.83, 40.94, 40.51 and 41.62 kph. Not only was Pharmstrong's slowest average speed faster than Indurain's fastest, the slowest average speed of his second place finisher (Ullrich, 1990) was faster than Indurain's fastest average GC speed.

2006 was back to 40 kph +/- 0.5 but 2007 -- the year after the FLandis debacle -- was the first race since 1994 to average slower than 39 kph. Did fear of suffering FLandis' fate cause them all to dope more conservatively?

1956, 36 kph

1960, 37 kph

1971, 38 kph

1992, 39 kph

1999, 40 kph

2005, 41 kph

I think Lemond of late has been an embarrassment to the sport but I have to agree with him on one point. I can't look at these numbers and not conclude that the GC contenders, ASchleck included, all are doped to the gills.
 
StyrbjornSterki said:
I think Lemond of late has been an embarrassment to the sport but I have to agree with him on one point. I can't look at these numbers and not conclude that the GC contenders, ASchleck included, all are doped to the gills.

But this graph has little to do with Andy Schleck, Lance Armstrong or any GC contenders. (unless i misunderstood it in which case sorry)

Because the time spent in the mountains is ultimately very small. The vast majority of average speed will come from those long 4 hour flat stages and the 3 hours on the flat before an mtf. Ultimately it doesnt matter much if Armstrong does Alpe in 38 minutes (doped to gills) or 43 minutes (not doped at all). Thats the difference between 6 hours 10 on a stage and 6 houts hours 15 minutes.

Ultimately that would only be the difference between 32.4 and 32.0 km/hour. Very small.
 
The Hitch said:
But this graph has little to do with Andy Schleck, Lance Armstrong or any GC contenders. (unless i misunderstood it in which case sorry)

Because the time spent in the mountains is ultimately very small. The vast majority of average speed will come from those long 4 hour flat stages and the 3 hours on the flat before an mtf. Ultimately it doesnt matter much if Armstrong does Alpe in 38 minutes (doped to gills) or 43 minutes (not doped at all). Thats the difference between 6 hours 10 on a stage and 6 houts hours 15 minutes.

Ultimately that would only be the difference between 32.4 and 32.0 km/hour. Very small.

Yeah good point. Looking at general average speeds is ok but it depends where the increase occurs. If the speed in the early stages after the break goes is, say, 24mph rather than 20mph then that will also have an effect on average speed but it may not have any real effect on someone in the pack who will still be going at the equivalent of 19mph.