What chances does Lance have for the Giro...

[Belokki]

Big Lance fan... Great to see him back, brings back lots of good memories

But lets be honest...he's not the Lance that won 7 editions of the hardest sports event... He still has that spark in him...saw it in the TOC, but what chances does he have to win the Giro09?
Will Basso get the better of him? What about Simeoni, better yet...what about Sastre...Good to see the old guard togheter again, along with the young??

Who will win? (and please don't tire me/others with the doping thing...its getteng very old, older than the old guard)

 

[ALBERTIÑO]

My pronistic is that he is not going to finish the race, he is not ready fo a 3 weeks GT ; Giro this year is terrific you have to be in an exellent fit to win and Lance is out of competition ridding , i bet he not reach the 3rd week,

 

[JavierOtxoa]

I think he have a lots of chances to win the Giro. Well, we don't know how good he is right now, but I think he could win , 90% chances to win if he had the same aproach as he had in the last TdF. Also I don't think he even 'try' to win this Giro if he thinks himself he have not at least 90% chance to win it! It's not about sport records, it's about his egotism , he could not lose! Also I think he had a problem; lots of people 'comments' , he is just a TdF winner, including me. He don't have to proove himself ,he have not such a problem, but he MUST proove to others who dare 'comments' and not believe his legend. So I think he must 'proove' he's not only specialized in TdF and he's a great rider as Merckx etc... Well we'll see. I don't I like him , but I think he will win this Giro. Looking to the peloton , tell me who can beat him ?

 

[Mellow Velo]

Big Lance fan... Great to see him back, brings back lots of good memories

But lets be honest...he's not the Lance that won 7 editions of the hardest sports event... He still has that spark in him...saw it in the TOC, but what chances does he have to win the Giro09?
Will Basso get the better of him? What about Simeoni, better yet...what about Sastre...Good to see the old guard togheter again, along with the young??

Who will win? (and please don't tire me/others with the doping thing...its getteng very old, older than the old guard)

It's.....er......SIMONI, Belokki. 7 times on the Giro podium, twice winner.

SIMEONI is the Italian champion, who has no chance, since his team isn't invited. Wouldn't figure, even if he was there.
You know....the guy who gave you one of those good memories. (that you've gathered since 2003)
The guy who Lance had to go chase after, in the 2004 Tour, because he'd been saying some nasty things about that nice, innocent Doctor Ferrari.
Surely, you must remember this, as if it were only yesterday?......

Give him the same team that Contador got suckered with, this week and he's got zero chance.

 

[JavierOtxoa]

Simoni winning against LA? Hmm I don't think so. Remember how he barely beat Pantani , a fat Pantani, with only some km in his feets ...Hm, I don;t see any Italian challenging LA. More I don't know why, I have the feeling that Italians have a ..some how provincial aproach to Giro and IF and When a really strong rider comes, they ( he and his team)will surrending...And don't tell me about Basso , he could beat him but Basso did not have the guts to beat him and was disaponting for Riis and all the CSC. LA beat him (Basso) psychological. I don't know, something in the (LA's)perfect team must occure to beat LA. You need at least somebody with cold brains and tactician, and a dedicated and strong team if somebody want to beat LA. I don't see such a man and team in the peloton. Also I think ,in case something goes wrong for LA he will abandon the race. I'm positive about that.

 

[bjbbiker]

doesnt have a chance in hell. Just on a physical level, look at how big his upper body is compared to that of when he won his last TdF. all the climbers these days are skinny little mongers, sastre, schleks, contador. He is going to get dropped like a bad habit on the first major HC climb and if you are following him on tiwtter he is spending too much time making cub scout pine wood derby cars

 

[Anonymous]

If he has a healthy team around him he should be able to contend for the win. But if he loses his big guns like Contador did at Paris-Nice he'll have a tough time.

Just think if Contador had the "redneck" and Levi to support him in the mountains. He probably could have had more time to play with and some protection.

 

[Argon Man]

He will have a good show based solely on the parcours. There are a heaps of TT ks plus the team TT, he will only need to stick with the climbers and do the job against the clock. He will probably come under more threat from within his own team if he is out timetrialled.

 

[BICICLON]

Early to know it, NExt races wil be important to know it. Starting with VUELTA CASTILLA Y LEON, were AC;LA and CSastre and many good others will join to fight for uci points,

 

[schleck]

Lots of unknowns, but Lance has a favourite's chance.

Astana will have a lot of work to do but Bruyneel and Lance are both astute. With the Cera "Wunderkids" less likely to strut their stuff the team and ultra long individual time trial favour the usual suspects; Lance, Sastre, Basso and Menchov.

It will be fascinating to watch!

 

[schism]

Unless he has a strong team around him he has no chance, I have the same reservations as bjbbiker, early in the year Lance looked a little heavy to me he is shaping, up but I still don't reckon he has much chance at the tour.

 

[lookkg386]

Lots of unknowns, but Lance has a favourite's chance.

Astana will have a lot of work to do but Bruyneel and Lance are both astute. With the Cera "Wunderkids" less likely to strut their stuff the team and ultra long individual time trial favour the usual suspects; Lance, Sastre, Basso and Menchov.

It will be fascinating to watch!

Agree, he has won 7 grand tours so he will be in the mix of favourites. One question is how certain are we really that he rides the Giro, I do think he will and that he rides it to win, maybe more so than the TDF.

 

[Tom Morris]

Agree, he has won 7 grand tours so he will be in the mix of favourites. One question is how certain are we really that he rides the Giro, I do think he will and that he rides it to win, maybe more so than the TDF.

He was doping. The question now is whether he will be willing to use as much dope as he used to or will he decide that it is too big of a risk for not much of a gain.

 

[Stani Kléber]

The comeback was announced last September but he has yet to do a proper race. Most riders, except the local pros, regard the Tour Down Under and Tour of California as mere training races.

So it's far to early to speculate, we'll only begin to learn more after he's got some serious racing done.

 

[mr. tibbs]

I'm guessing his real objective is going to have to be for a stage win, probably in the TT.

The Giro is made for skinny climbers, and that favors Basso and Sastre, among others, more than Lance (especially with how much more of him there is now).

Here's a question that may be even more important: will Lance even be the captain for overall at the Giro? Has Astana released their start list yet? B/c there are a LOT of guys on that team capable of a top 5 or podium spot.

 

[Junior Varsity]

LA will be trying to win and will probably be a major factor in the race. The man rides a hell of a TT and the giro has some good ones. However, my money will be on Basso. He is having a nice build up and will have a strong (focused)team behind him.

 

[BW1978]

One thing i have learnt in my life watching sporting legends is that you can never write off a champion! Lance would know the sums. He would know exactly where he is at and where he needs to be at each stage of the season! Anyone who thinks he won't be at least competitive (ie top 10 in stage races) from the middle of the season on is taking a big gamble! I would bet anyone anything that every rider capable of winning both the Giro and TdF would name Lance as one to watch! The riders would be the best way to gauge someones form as they are right there with him competing. Ignore Armstrong at your own peril!

 

[Robert Merivel]

Lance needs racing base miles for the only Tour that truly means anything to him. However, I believe there is an excellent opportunity for him to be on the podium in Italy and it will be an all out effort from his side. Astana will be behind him 110%, and, of course, that is the key. You can bet that Johann will have the right "help" on hand to make it happen.

But make no mistake, it's that race in France in July that he's gearing up for. And, I suspect, the big lieutenant's, i.e., Andreas, Levi, Chris, Jose Luis and Yaroslav will be siding with Mr. Armstrong, not to mention Johann, to make it number 8.

It will be historic!

 

[Milan.ITALY]

I think the podium at Giro 2009 will be:

1. Ivan Basso
2. Lance Armstrong
3. Damiano Cunego

These three riders are 2/3 categories above all the others.
Besides I think Lance Armstrong will win the Tour and Ivan Basso will win the Vuelta; Damiano Cunego, instead, will win the World Road Championship in Mendrisio.
I think Lance Armstrong could win the Giro's TT stages, but in the steep mountain stages I think Basso will be undefeatable.

Let's see...

 

[Bluebeard]

If an old man is to win the Giro, I want it to be Gilberto Simoni. He is still great entertainment value, and should have one last Giro in his legs. Doubt he'll win it, but would love to see him do really well, and finish above a certain guy currently flip flopping on his attendance.

 

[JavierOtxoa]

I think the podium at Giro 2009 will be:

1. Ivan Basso
2. Lance Armstrong
3. Damiano Cunego

These three riders are 2/3 categories above all the others.
Besides I think Lance Armstrong will win the Tour and Ivan Basso will win the Vuelta; Damiano Cunego, instead, will win the World Road Championship in Mendrisio.
I think Lance Armstrong could win the Giro's TT stages, but in the steep mountain stages I think Basso will be undefeatable.

Let's see...

Allow me to be not so sure about Basso and Cunego. I think Basso will don't have the guts to win the Giro when Armstrong is there. I think LA could 'read' Basso like an open booke and could foolish Basso anytime (of the race) he want. Also after a ban usualy the riders did not perform as good as they was before the ban. ( See Millar, Virenque and others)
I like Cunego but despite his astonishing Giro and his verbal fight with Simoni, he prove he's only a dam' good rider but I don't think he is a Grand Tours winer and I think he 'll never be. Of course everything is posible, but I don't see Cunego and Basso in the first 5 .

 

[180mmCrank]

Based on recent reports I think he is laying the ground work for not even trying to be up there for the Giro - I think he wants to make history on the Champs Elysees.

I can imagine us seeing a strategy from Lance based around setting others up to fail - many of the main contenders have managed to sabotage their efforts in the past. I loved the way Sastre won last year but you have to question the strategy/tactics of other contenders (Menchov, Evans, Schleck...and others). I think when he (Lance) saw the way Sastre was able to take the race on D'Huez was when he decided that he could do the same this year!

Well we will see - I think he is going to find his legs may not take him where his head wants his body to go.

 

[75kilos]

Personally, I am sick of the man. I hope he does not win anything ever again and other, new, younger riders get the wins.
That goes for Basso too.

It's a pretty poor state of affairs if a 37 year old, who's been out for 3 years, can win a major Tour.
If LA does win something - something pretty strange is happening and I would have him forensically analysed....

There - I've said it.

 

[Henri Desgrange]

Can Armstrong win the Giro? The real question should be will Armstrong turn up at the Giro? First he was riding to win, now he's riding for top 10. How long before it goes the way of Flanders and disappears from his race schedule? I hope he does ride though, I can't wait to see Basso kick his hide all over Italy.

 

[Angliru]

If an old man is to win the Giro, I want it to be Gilberto Simoni. He is still great entertainment value, and should have one last Giro in his legs. Doubt he'll win it, but would love to see him do really well, and finish above a certain guy currently flip flopping on his attendance.

Definitely in support of Simoni, although as mentioned elsewhere, the time trials are going to kill him. I just hope at minimum he shows well in the mountains and maybe takes a summit or stage win from a breakaway.
He deserves to go out in style for all that he's brought the sport over the years.