What chances does Lance have for the Giro...

[Angliru]

I think the podium at Giro 2009 will be:

1. Ivan Basso
2. Lance Armstrong
3. Damiano Cunego

These three riders are 2/3 categories above all the others.
Besides I think Lance Armstrong will win the Tour and Ivan Basso will win the Vuelta; Damiano Cunego, instead, will win the World Road Championship in Mendrisio.
I think Lance Armstrong could win the Giro's TT stages, but in the steep mountain stages I think Basso will be undefeatable.

Let's see...

I can't see all this sudden optimism over Cunego's chances in a grand tour. Could it be his decent performance on some of the climbs in the Vuelta last year that has spurred this enthusiasm? Otherwise he's been fairly invisible and often seen getting dropped by the contenders in the Giro and the Tour.
He has yet to finish above his former nemesis Simoni in the gc of the Giro since his 2004 Giro heist. Simoni has regularly shown him his rear wheel on virtually every mountain stage of the Giro since then. I like Cunego, well I wasn't liking him much when he was ambushing Simoni in 2004 but I can appreciate his performances in the Ardennes classics and Giro di Lombardia, but he hasn't done anything to warrant consideration for a podium finish in a grand tour.

Basso does appear to be the one to beat.

 

[Angliru]

Personally, I am sick of the man. I hope he does not win anything ever again and other, new, younger riders get the wins.
That goes for Basso too.

It's a pretty poor state of affairs if a 37 year old, who's been out for 3 years, can win a major Tour.
If LA does win something - something pretty strange is happening and I would have him forensically analysed....

There - I've said it.

LOL!! My sentiments exactly.

 

[Milan.ITALY]

Allow me to be not so sure about Basso and Cunego. I think Basso will don't have the guts to win the Giro when Armstrong is there. I think LA could 'read' Basso like an open booke and could foolish Basso anytime (of the race) he want. Also after a ban usualy the riders did not perform as good as they was before the ban. ( See Millar, Virenque and others)
I like Cunego but despite his astonishing Giro and his verbal fight with Simoni, he prove he's only a dam' good rider but I don't think he is a Grand Tours winer and I think he 'll never be. Of course everything is posible, but I don't see Cunego and Basso in the first 5 .

Even if I'm Italian, I'd like very much if Lance won the Giro09; but... Do you remember what Basso has done in Giro06?? He was on another planet... That Basso is unbeatable; you tell that a rider after a ban is not the same as before... but Basso has already demonstrated that he has come back like before; he let see us this in the Japan Cup 2008 and recently in Tirreno-Adriatico. I think Lance will be the best in the TT stages again, but in the mountains stages I think it will so hard for him.

 

[Milan.ITALY]

I can't see all this sudden optimism over Cunego's chances in a grand tour. Could it be his decent performance on some of the climbs in the Vuelta last year that has spurred this enthusiasm? Otherwise he's been fairly invisible and often seen getting dropped by the contenders in the Giro and the Tour.
He has yet to finish above his former nemesis Simoni in the gc of the Giro since his 2004 Giro heist. Simoni has regularly shown him his rear wheel on virtually every mountain stage of the Giro since then. I like Cunego, well I wasn't liking him much when he was ambushing Simoni in 2004 but I can appreciate his performances in the Ardennes classics and Giro di Lombardia, but he hasn't done anything to warrant consideration for a podium finish in a grand tour.

Basso does appear to be the one to beat.

In my opinion Cunego is Pantani's heir; he reveiled this at Giro04. I think if he ride with the 2004 istintivity he will be the king of the mountains for the next 10 years. Now he has the right age! Let's wait for him...

 

[Angliru]

Could his long term loss of endurance be a result of his bout of mono? He has hardly been anyone's grand tour contender since 2004. His bout with mono was diagnosed I believe prior to the 2005 Giro where he promised to ride in support of Simoni. That was, I believe, the season before the implimentation of the Pro Tour schedule and thus a raising of the level of overall competition at the Giro.

To me there has to be something to explain the past 4 years of mediocre results in the the grand tours. No stage wins (was there a Vuelta stage win?), no podiums, constantly getting dropped on pivotal mountain stages.
He's offered no explanation as to what he thinks is the cause, only continuously insisting that he is a grand tour stage racer in addition to an exceptional performer in hilly one day events.

I personally would like to see him return to the form he had in 2004 if that is at all possible.

 

[53x11 in DC]

Personally, I am sick of the man. I hope he does not win anything ever again and other, new, younger riders get the wins.
That goes for Basso too.

It's a pretty poor state of affairs if a 37 year old, who's been out for 3 years, can win a major Tour.
If LA does win something - something pretty strange is happening and I would have him forensically analysed....

There - I've said it.

Apparently, the AFLD heard you. They came after him (and him alone) yesterday with a pair of scissors to trim him locks! Desperate times call for desperate measures, I guess....

 

[CapeRoadie]

Hair analysis has been around. Let's see what they can come up with.

 

[CapeRoadie]

Even if I'm Italian, I'd like very much if Lance won the Giro09; but... Do you remember what Basso has done in Giro06?? He was on another planet... That Basso is unbeatable; you tell that a rider after a ban is not the same as before... but Basso has already demonstrated that he has come back like before; he let see us this in the Japan Cup 2008 and recently in Tirreno-Adriatico. I think Lance will be the best in the TT stages again, but in the mountains stages I think it will so hard for him.

Basso worked for Armstrong at the 2004 or 2005 Tour (forget which year that was) when he was at CSC. My guess is that a deal will be made with Basso at the Giro for a return favor at the Tour (should Basso ride it). We'll see... these two guys are tied by some unknown bond. Remember we saw Basso in the black & blue Discovery kit in California a couple years ago. USPS/Disco had tried for a while to get him, finally got him, and had to let him go due to OP. There is an Armstrong-Basso conection that appears to run pretty deep.

I agree the Giro has mountains that are not his type of climbs. Much more suited to a Basso or Gibo Simoni or even DiLuca than Armstrong. The Giro will be a training ride for the Tour like it's been for other Tour riders of the past. The climbs are too steep for Armstrong. He never like Ventoux for that very reason. And we'll never know for sure if Pantani beat him outright or it was gifted. That's just head games if you ask me. I personally believe Pantani beat him.

 

[53x11 in DC]

Hair analysis has been around. Let's see what they can come up with.

CR - I realize that hair analysis has been around. My point was that they singled him out yesterday. And - care to place a bet on whether they "come up with" anything?

 

[cody251]

The guy who Lance had to go chase after, in the 2004 Tour, because he'd been saying some nasty things about that nice, innocent Doctor Ferrari.
Surely, you must remember this, as if it were only yesterday?......

Give him the same team that Contador got suckered with, this week and he's got zero chance.

We almost made 4 people before the same old mud got thrown! Dang it!

 

[cody251]

... if you are following him on tiwtter he is spending too much time making cub scout pine wood derby cars

... with his kids, that jerk!

 

[cody251]

He was doping. The question now is whether he will be willing to use as much dope as he used to or will he decide that it is too big of a risk for not much of a gain.

You just can't resist can you??

The person who started the thread, and he even said please! You have every other single thread here to continue your diatribe.

"Who will win? (and please don't tire me/others with the doping thing...its getting very old, older than the old guard)"

 

[BrandonT]

Lance has a great chance at being in the top 3 just because of the team that Johan will surround him with and because of the 60k TT. Simoni will lose 6 min on that timetrial, Basso and Cunego will lose a few minutes as well.
The Garmin GC man for the Giro will get a big boost from the long TT whether its Svien, Tom D or Ryder.
I'd personally like to see either one of the wildcards (Cervelo, ISD) or Svien Tuft take the Giro this year.

 

[cody251]

I think he will not be a podium factor, because he isn't training to be one. This is a prep race, it's been mentioned here and there that he may not ride the whole race, that alone indicates he isn't in it to win the Giro. That being said, if he is supported by a strong team (and he most likely will be) and he is in contention nearing the final days, he won't drop out. I can't see him being strong enough on the climbs of the Giro yet(perhaps never at his age). Despite being a fan of LA, I'm guessing that if he does drop out (after not being that competitive) the very first thing that he/they will say is that the Giro was just a training race.

I'm thinking he'll be strong at the TT stages and possible a few of the less-brutal climbs, hopefully not losing too much time on the others.

I'm hoping that he does well and rides the entire Giro, and AC is stronger at the Tour and Lance actually rides for him. That will satisfy a small group of the people that don't like him. Actually, it won't, but it will make me feel better about it. Hopefully he doesn't hold anything back in the Giro thinking of an 8th Tour win... I'm curious how his next several races go, even if they aren't "his style" of races. That may shed some more light on his performance level.

 

[Mellow Velo]

CR - I realize that hair analysis has been around. My point was that they singled him out yesterday. And - care to place a bet on whether they "come up with" anything?

He hasn't been singled out. The AFLD have been have a major "push" on this, with mostly their own athletes.

http://sportgeza.hu/futball/hirek/2009/03/18/sokan_doppingolnak_a_francia_futballban/

Since this was a report in Hungarian, here's a translation:-
A lot of players are doping in French football

MTI - Hungarian national news agency

Wed. 18 March 2009, 14:33

French experts have detected significant doping usage in French football through studies which were conducted on samples obtained from hair strands of football players in 2008. The French Anti-Doping Agency (AFLD), which published results of the analysis on Wednesday, established that the footballers had clearly been doping when they took age-inhibiting - and thus physical condition-improving - hormones (so-called DHEA), with the objective of performance enhancement.

This can only be detected with difficulty in blood and urine samples, however this anabolic steroid - which also leaves traces in the skin and nails -, is not only "popular" in football in France but also - according to the testimony of the studies - in other sports, including rugby, athletics and cycling. According to the results of the tests, conducted using the AFLD "hair strand" method, 16.5% of the samples taken were positive. Within this, French footballers produced the most cases: 21.8% of those sampled had been doping. The "silver medal" went to amateur cyclists (17.6%), athletics was third (13.22) and professional cycling fourth (10.8%)

 

[Mellow Velo]

We almost made 4 people before the same old mud got thrown! Dang it!

You just can't resist can you??

Well, if you hadn't done a cut and paste edit job, to take my post out of context, it would have been a lot more than 4.

So, selectively picking from you quote, I'd say it's you who can't resist.
If you don't want to dredge up the same 'ol, then don't go looking for it.

 

[cody251]

It's.....er......SIMONI, Belokki. 7 times on the Giro podium, twice winner.

SIMEONI is the Italian champion, who has no chance, since his team isn't invited. Wouldn't figure, even if he was there.
You know....the guy who gave you one of those good memories. (that you've gathered since 2003)
The guy who Lance had to go chase after, in the 2004 Tour, because he'd been saying some nasty things about that nice, innocent Doctor Ferrari.
Surely, you must remember this, as if it were only yesterday?......

Give him the same team that Contador got suckered with, this week and he's got zero chance.

Okay, here is all of it... What did you really mean?

 

[Mellow Velo]

Just read the Belokki post that set up this thread and the "context" should be revealed.
SIMONI: Giro winner and riding the Giro.
SIMEONI: Italian champion, not riding the Giro.
Best known (if at all) by fans of Lance (Cody and Belokki) for criticising Lance's association with Dr Ferrari, at trial.
Then came the bold text incident of the 2004 Tour.

Ignorance is not bliss, or an excuse.

 

[cody251]

Just read the Belokki post that set up this thread and the "context" should be revealed.
SIMONI: Giro winner and riding the Giro.
SIMEONI: Italian champion, not riding the Giro.
Best known (if at all) by fans of Lance (Cody and Belokki) for criticising Lance's association with Dr Ferrari, at trial.
Then came the bold text incident of the 2004 Tour.

Ignorance is not bliss, or an excuse.

*sigh* I know exactly what you're talking about but clearly you don't see your subdued lance=dope reference (even though you were just "trying" to clarify his error or typo in your post). Hence my comment, "You just can't resist can you??"

 

[Mellow Velo]

You just can't resist can you??"

Why resist the truth?
You, on the other hand? OK, it's a deal.

 

[53x11 in DC]

He hasn't been singled out. The AFLD have been have a major "push" on this, with mostly their own athletes.

http://sportgeza.hu/futball/hirek/2009/03/18/sokan_doppingolnak_a_francia_futballban/

Since this was a report in Hungarian, here's a translation:-
A lot of players are doping in French football

MTI - Hungarian national news agency

Wed. 18 March 2009, 14:33

French experts have detected significant doping usage in French football through studies which were conducted on samples obtained from hair strands of football players in 2008. The French Anti-Doping Agency (AFLD), which published results of the analysis on Wednesday, established that the footballers had clearly been doping when they took age-inhibiting - and thus physical condition-improving - hormones (so-called DHEA), with the objective of performance enhancement.

This can only be detected with difficulty in blood and urine samples, however this anabolic steroid - which also leaves traces in the skin and nails -, is not only "popular" in football in France but also - according to the testimony of the studies - in other sports, including rugby, athletics and cycling. According to the results of the tests, conducted using the AFLD "hair strand" method, 16.5% of the samples taken were positive. Within this, French footballers produced the most cases: 21.8% of those sampled had been doping. The "silver medal" went to amateur cyclists (17.6%), athletics was third (13.22) and professional cycling fourth (10.8%)

Excellent info, MV (seriously - thx). Now, care to place a bet on whether anything is "uncovered" with this haircut?? I know you didn't introduce the topic, but I'm dying to see all of the folks who are SURE Astana and Lance are doping put their money where their keyboard is.

 

[CapeRoadie]

CR - I realize that hair analysis has been around. My point was that they singled him out yesterday. And - care to place a bet on whether they "come up with" anything?

Sure. I'll bet that they find...

absolutely nothing.

Lance wins Tours, and he wins the game within the game (i.e., doping).

He's the poster boy for not getting caught. Very smart.

 

[gatete]

Can Armstrong win the Giro? The real question should be will Armstrong turn up at the Giro? First he was riding to win, now he's riding for top 10. How long before it goes the way of Flanders and disappears from his race schedule? I hope he does ride though, I can't wait to see Basso kick his hide all over Italy.

Amen to that!

More and more I'm beggining to think he's not even going to show by a "sudden" bruissed Injury, the man is really that cold and cynical to pull a stunt like that and then be fresh as a cucumber to get Contador out of the way, but you know what I think Contador is just that cold too, so let's see what happens.

 

[last km]

I got a couple of bets with fellow posters over the pond.......I'm of the "he wont show" brotherhood.......

 

[lookkg386]

I got a couple of bets with fellow posters over the pond.......I'm of the "he wont show" brotherhood.......

Think you might lose the bet,but I can't see him trying to win it. If he isn't in the front group - then he rides it for the training (which he has said is what he'll use it for ) either way he has done everything he said he would so far so why would some think he won't start.