What percenatge of attacks that end in wins would make Pogacar interesting?

[topcat]

Pogacar launches long range attacks and then wins about 90% of the time. So when he attacks, the race is essentially over. We're all in favour of attacking racing. So what percentage of the attacks turning out to be winning attacks would be desirable?
This thread is dedicated to RR.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I find him interesting as it is.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

50% is the only correct answer. It maximizes the entropy.

 

[topcat]

50% is the only correct answer. It maximizes the entropy.

But entropy always increases with time. Maybe that explains it all.
I tried to like my own post but the option isn't available. However, I can report my own post as offensive to me. Something worth looking into.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Fewer polls, more Pauls.

 

[Red Rick]

Interest requires risk, risk would require losing. A lot.

 

[topcat]

Fewer polls, more Pauls.

Less money, more personal attention.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Risk is often assessed using metrics such as standard deviation and variance which for success are maximised at 50% success rate.

 

[jmdirt]

I agree with PI, and disagree with RR.

TP is exciting. The fact that other teams/racers can't figure him out (with a few exceptions MvdP...) is the only thing that isn't exciting.

 

[HashRouge]

I agree with PI, and disagree with RR.

TP is exciting. The fact that other teams/racers can't figure him out (with a few exceptions MvdP...) is the only thing that isn't exciting.

I objectively really like the way he races. No team mates left, a la WC 2024? No problem, just attack from 100km to go. I thought that was awesome. But it does lose its novelty once you've seen it a few times, and he's only very rarely caught. The reason everyone still goes on about 2024 TdF stage 11 and 2025 AGR is because Pog did get caught on those occasions, and it was a huge shock! At the moment I prefer those races that don't really suit him, like MSR and PR. I'm so excited for both of those races this year!!

 

[Red Rick]

I agree with PI, and disagree with RR.

TP is exciting. The fact that other teams/racers can't figure him out (with a few exceptions MvdP...) is the only thing that isn't exciting.

There is nothing to figure out. I think game theory optimal would be to metagame it and give him 82 minutes every time he attacks.

Tactics no longer exist. Risk no longer exists. Froome often attacked with 2km to go with more risk than Pogacar from 80

 

[bah]

I'd even take him not winning 3/10 times. Would at least provide some semblance of hope/interest.

 

[jotafap]

I'd even take him not winning 3/10 times. Would at least provide some semblance of hope/interest.

So basically similar to last year? Because it's exactly his record until the end of the Tour.

 

[jono]

If the success rate were below 50%, let alone 25% or 15%, he would attack far less often than he currently does, especially in stage races.

Whether that scenario is more exciting for the viewer I suppose is a matter of taste.

 

[Red Rick]

If the success rate were below 50%, let alone much 25% or 15%, he would attack far less often than he currently does, especially in stage races.

Whether that scenario is more exciting for the viewer I suppose is a matter of taste.

It would be refreshing if he had to use his brain for once.

Now when he needs to he usually gets 3rd or 4th from a 2 man group

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's crazy, isn't it. In peak Rogla era, on where there was a lot of mano-a-mano type of racing and the idea was to beat the rest by smallest possible margin, on just how much desire there was for long race attack. Now when we live in an era of long rangers on what people would be prepare to give, to see again a close mano-a-mano fight up the hill with a dramatic finale. So i guess it turned out preferred way of winning, by fans, that is situational thingy, as it changes based on the circumstances.

Anyway, hopefully to get some mano-a-mano in the 2026 season in between Rogla and Pogi and others, on where Rogla stomps them all. To further demonstrate on how there is nothing wrong with that, on just how much one can enjoy that tremendously.

 

[VO2 Max]

I agree with PI, and disagree with RR.

TP is exciting. The fact that other teams/racers can't figure him out (with a few exceptions MvdP...) is the only thing that isn't exciting.

Bang on, G2 syndrome is what kills things, not exciting riders doing exciting things like actually attacking and comitting from a long way out.

At some point those guys need to realise that the old rules don't apply just now and you can't just wait for him to come back by himself like anyone else would if they attacked so early. People are just going to have to risk overcommitting to chase groups because otherwise they've already lost anyway. Get creative with your tactics, accept that until you find a way to make Pogacar lose then you have zero chance of winning. Honestly they owe it to Pogacar's legacy as much as anything, who wants to be here in ten years saying yeah he won more than Merckx but most of his opponents were a bit useless weren't they?

 

[Gratemans]

Anyway, hopefully to get some mano-a-mano in the 2026 season in between Rogla and Pogi and others, on where Rogla stomps them all. To further demonstrate on how there is nothing wrong with that, on just how much one can enjoy that tremendously.

I'm sorry to have to break it to you Abi, but those days have passed.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I'm sorry to have to break it to you Abi, but those days have passed.

They can run but they can't hide.

 

[Gratemans]

They can run but they can't hide.

That's the whole problem: they can outrun him on the bike now.
But seriously, I just get the vibe that he might try for the Vuelta and some smaller races, but in general he's now mostly there to support and mentor his teammates.
Which would be totally fine.

 

[CyclistAbi]

That's the whole problem: they can outrun him on the bike now.

We'll see.

But seriously, I just get the vibe that he might try for the Vuelta and some smaller races, but in general he's now mostly there to support and mentor his teammates.
Which would be totally fine.

Yeah, mostly interested in monuments, week long stage racing and GTs. Anyway, i just wanted to point out excessive long range attacking can be boring as hell too and doesn't do much favour to this sport. Hopefully somebody can put a stomp on that. As for Rogla being a good mentor, that comes naturally, he always encouraged other stars around him to shine. As for not being interested in winning any more, forget that. Doesn't bother him if he wins them all.

 

[Gratemans]

Anyway, i just wanted to point out excessive long range attacking can be boring as hell too and doesn't do much favour to this sport.

Agreed.

 

[Rockestar_33]

Long range attacks are boring. There I said it.

Two or three heavyweights going head to head up the last mountain launching attacks and counter attacks is the best form of racing and it always has been

 

[CyclistAbi]

Long range attacks are boring. There I said it.

Two or three heavyweights going head to head up the last mountain launching attacks and counter attacks is the best form of racing and it always has been

Indeed, that is when this sport is at its best.