Which active rider will win more Grand Tours

Which active rider will win more Grand Tours

  • Chris Froome (7)

    Votes: 26 26.5%
  • Primoz Roglic (3)

    Votes: 2 2.0%
  • Tadej Pogacar (2)

    Votes: 47 48.0%
  • Jonas Vingegaard (1)

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • Remco Evenepoel (1)

    Votes: 19 19.4%
  • Juan Ayuso (0)

    Votes: 3 3.1%
  • Other (Who?)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    98
First time I do this type of poll so I apologise if something is not totally right with the layout

Given that we are having several talented young riders winning Grand Tours lately I thought it would be interesting to compare them regarding their GT winning ability and also to compare them with the most successful active rider in GT's, Chris Froome to see which one do you think will get a higher number of GT wins. The riders in the poll were chosen due to a mix of age, Grand Tour wins and GT winning potential but you are free to suggest another ones.

Later I will do an analysis of how many Grand Tours I think each of these riders are going to win and if I think any of them will surpass Froome's seven wins.
 
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Since only 3 riders have won more than 7 in history, and it used to be much easier to win 2 in the same year, its a pretty safe bet.

Obviously Contador kinda won more, and Coppi would have if not for the war.
Was it easier to win 2 in the same year? I think Giro/Tour was easier, but that's about it. Tour/Vuelta and especially Giro/Vuelta should be very feasable this day and age.

I'm much more inclined to think that the potential for high GT numbers goes up simply because better teams/training should reduce variance a lot and because riders have much longer careers these days.

The big element that depresses the # of GT wins is th relative importance of the Tour and thus the fact that nobody chases high numbers of GT wins in and of it's own.
 
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Was it easier to win 2 in the same year? I think Giro/Tour was easier, but that's about it. Tour/Vuelta and especially Giro/Vuelta should be very feasable this day and age.
Well it's been done 18 times but only twice this century.
The Giro Vuelta 'should' be easier, but thinking of people who have gone fir it recently they never managed to bring it to the Vuelta. Maybe there is just too big a gap. Nibs, Bernal and Hindly spring to mind as being a level below come the Vuelta.
 
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Pogacar could win more maybe, I think.., but he needs to include Giro and Vuelta in his schedule to achieve that.
Remco.., I don't know, it's kind of obvious that he'll win hell of a lot races, but I'm not sure he'll be The Dominant Rider in GT's. We need to see a Remco/Pog/Vingo showdown first to know more.
 
I think when somebody wins convincingly (especially when they're young) people kinda lose sight of how ridiculously hard it is to rack up that many wins. A lot has to go right for quite a few seasons to pull it off, so even for the biggest talents the most likely outcome for each of them individually is that they won't surpass Froome.
Think there's a big difference between dominating the TdF at a relatively young age and winning one of the other GTs at the same age. Then you need a very high success rate in your prime years before still winning some after you start tailing off.A second factor is simply being able to hit GT shape for 2 GTs in a season, and this tends to come into play a bit later. None of Evenepoel, Ayuso, Pogacar or Vingegaard has demonstrated this thus far.

I also think we tend to look too much at only Froome and Contador for this in recent times, when near misses and consistency of guys like Roglic, Nibali and Quintana also tell a story about the amount of total chances a rider might get.

Contador and Froome had a superb patch but still left some on the table because of scheduling/injury, and team factors. Roglic essentially had a 3 year window where he could've won 5. Nibali meanwhile had a 9 year period between his first and final podiums and IIRC has the same amount of podiums as Froome.

For now I'd consider Roglic the meme pick in this poll, with the main favorite being depending mostly on the 2023 TdF.
 
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Sep 12, 2022
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Depends on the next TDF. If Pogacar wins, and wins big, he'll definitely win the most. I have a feeling last year Pogacar might not have been 100%, and might have thought he would easily win the TDF. He'll be better prepared this year, and we'll get an even more attractive race between Vingegaard and him.
 
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Agree with everyone saying Froome as he's the obvious choice. Of course Pogacar and Evenepoel are two of the greatest talents ever and they have a better chance than anyone else to surpass Froome (Ayuso as well but it seems a bit premature to throw him in the greatest talents ever category). Much will depend on whether they want to try and win as many GT's as possible which at this point doesn't seem to be the case, they seem to focus just as much on other important races too. Pogacar doesn't seem physically fit to challenge at the Tour and the Vuelta in the same year just yet either (Evenepoel probably neither).
 
So here it goes long post.

Ironically I think one of the least talented riders in this poll is ultimately going to be the one with more GT wins, Chris Froome. There are three factors that I think are going to lead to that outcome.

1 - He is (was) a pure GT rider. Unlike some like Pogačar that can take a break after the Tour and then prepare for the World Championships and Il Lombardia, Froome only had one major race that he could win after the Tour, La Vuelta and although he only one it two times (both with doping related stuff in the mix those can make a difference).

2 - He had the strongest team. Sky was the dominant team in GT's back in the mid-2010s and the team strength and decisive for him to win the 2015 and 2017 Tours.

3 - He raced on a 'relatively' weak era. His biggest rivals were a Contador that was already a bit off his peak, an inconsistent Nibali, a Quintana or Bardet who always lost too much time on TTs and even a rider like Uran who was just simply not good enough and even so manage to finish a Tour, less than one minute away from Froome. While Froome hardest fans won't like this point for me it makes a difference when compared with the current era.

From the other riders on the poll, I think that Pogačar is the most obvious choice to beat Froome. But while one year ago most people thought that he would probably win more than seven GT's after having been beaten by Vingegård in the Tour and with riders like Evenepoel or Ayuso coming and with his current focus in one-day races meaning that he just races the Tour, at least in my case I don't see him getting to Froome's seven (looking at the poll result so far many don't agree which is good for the debate). I wouldn't be surprised if he gets just three more GT wins or so.

Among the Jumbo riders Roglič is a bit too old to surpass Froome but unlike others I don't think that he is finish and he has at least one more GT win in his legs. After beating Pogačar this year Vingegård is a candidate but he is a long way from Froome's seven and while I think he will win a few more GT's (he has the 'advantage' of not being a classics rider) there is just too much talent to see him getting more than 5 or so.

After convincingly winning the Vuelta this year, Remco deserves to be in this poll but despite his huge talent, I remain cautious about him as his team is still not at Jumbo or even UAE level and there are still a few doubts about his strength in the higher mountains. Just like Pogačar, I think he will have a legendary career with many one day race wins but in GT's with the lack of many TT kilometers, I really don't see him getting more than seven.

Ayuso is the only one in the poll that didn't won a GT so far but given that he just got third at the Vuelta at just 19 (ok almost 20) years of ago with a bout of covid in between, I feel that he actually could be the most dangerous rider in this poll for Froome. He can probably already win the Vuelta next year and UAE is getting stronger but I still need to see a bit more of him and with so many talented riders around and others coming surpassing Froome will be hard.

A final note about Bernal, that I could have included in the poll, as he already won the Giro and Tour but given the current crop of talent and his history of injuries, I can only see him winning a Giro or Vuelta with little TT and few rivals which would already be extraordinary given that he almost end up in a wheelchair earlier this year.
 
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Depends on the meaning of the question.

If you mean who is going to win the most GTs out of the people mentioned, then as others have said, topping Froome's total is likely to be difficult (but not impossible). If we're talking who is going to win more as in who will add to their total, I'd say that all of them bar Froome and likely Rogla CAN add to their total. I think Bernal should be added regardless - while he may never be the same again, there's always the Greg Lemond story to be told when you think somebody is finished and they're still young enough to recover.
 
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Voted Froome on the grounds that Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, Bernal (hopefully to be part of the equation again) and Ayuso (and Uijtdebroecks?) will each beat each other enough to prevent them catching him.

In ten-fifteen years time, fans of (pick one of the above) will be talking of how many GTs they would have won if it weren't for (perm any two of the remaining five), in an alternative reality game I call "playing the Andy Murray card"
 
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So here it goes long post.

Ironically I think one of the least talented riders in this poll is ultimately going to be the one with more GT wins, Chris Froome. There are three factors that I think are going to lead to that outcome.

1 - He is (was) a pure GT rider. Unlike some like Pogačar that can take a break after the Tour and then prepare for the World Championships and Il Lombardia, Froome only had one major race that he could win after the Tour, La Vuelta and although he only one it two times (both with doping related stuff in the mix those can make a difference).

2 - He had the strongest team. Sky was the dominant team in GT's back in the mid-2010s and the team strength and decisive for him to win the 2015 and 2017 Tours.

3 - He raced on a 'relatively' weak era. His biggest rivals were a Contador that was already a bit off his peak, an inconsistent Nibali, a Quintana or Bardet who always lost too much time on TTs and even a rider like Uran who was just simply not good enough and even so manage to finish a Tour, less than one minute away from Froome. While Froome hardest fans won't like this point for me it makes a difference when compared with the current era.

From the other riders on the poll, I think that Pogačar is the most obvious choice to beat Froome. But while one year ago most people thought that he would probably win more than seven GT's after having been beaten by Vingegård in the Tour and with riders like Evenepoel or Ayuso coming and with his current focus in one-day races meaning that he just races the Tour, at least in my case I don't see him getting to Froome's seven (looking at the poll result so far many don't agree which is good for the debate). I wouldn't be surprised if he gets just three more GT wins or so.

Among the Jumbo riders Roglič is a bit too old to surpass Froome but unlike others I don't think that he is finish and he has at least one more GT win in his legs. After beating Pogačar this year Vingegård is a candidate but he is a long way from Froome's seven and while I think he will win a few more GT's (he has the 'advantage' of not being a classics rider) there is just too much talent to see him getting more than 5 or so.

After convincingly winning the Vuelta this year, Remco deserves to be in this poll but despite his huge talent, I remain cautious about him as his team is still not at Jumbo or even UAE level and there are still a few doubts about his strength in the higher mountains. Just like Pogačar, I think he will have a legendary career with many one day race wins but in GT's with the lack of many TT kilometers, I really don't see him getting more than seven.

Ayuso is the only one in the poll that didn't won a GT so far but given that he just got third at the Vuelta at just 19 (ok almost 20) years of ago with a bout of covid in between, I feel that he actually could be the most dangerous rider in this poll for Froome. He can probably already win the Vuelta next year and UAE is getting stronger but I still need to see a bit more of him and with so many talented riders around and others coming surpassing Froome will be hard.

A final note about Bernal, that I could have included in the poll, as he already won the Giro and Tour but given the current crop of talent and his history of injuries, I can only see him winning a Giro or Vuelta with little TT and few rivals which would already be extraordinary given that he almost end up in a wheelchair earlier this year.
What do we base eras on though? If I look at the GT riders who were there in like 2016 and who are still here now and who have stayed reasonably consistent I don't think they're that much worse. Especially from 2018 onwards guys like Landa, Yates and Mas are reasonably good bellweathers. Hell, even Grandpa Nibali was top 5 in a GT this year. Thomas was 3rd in the Tour comfortably and he's arguably one of the weakest TdF winners this century.
 
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Thomas was 3rd in the Tour comfortably and he's arguably one of the weakest TdF winners this century.
Not when he won. He may have seemed unimpressive after he took the lead, but from then on they rode for Froome. I don't recall him in difficulty at any point in the race.

So I have him at least one level above Evans and Wiggins. Ahead of Froome in 2017 as well.
 
Depends on the meaning of the question.

If you mean who is going to win the most GTs out of the people mentioned, then as others have said, topping Froome's total is likely to be difficult (but not impossible). If we're talking who is going to win more as in who will add to their total, I'd say that all of them bar Froome and likely Rogla CAN add to their total. I think Bernal should be added regardless - while he may never be the same again, there's always the Greg Lemond story to be told when you think somebody is finished and they're still young enough to recover.
Although I could have been more clear in the title, it means the first sentence that you wrote as I explained in the opening post.

@Red Rick, while I don't think Froome's era was weak in absolute terms in my opinion it was weaker to the one we have nowadays, that's why I wrote relatively. Riders like Uran, Bardet or even Quintana would find it difficult to get into the Tour podium nowadays. The level in the other GT's probably didn't rise as much but Nibali benefitted from Yates, Almeida and Bardet all dropping out of the Giro and a Giro top5 isn't exactly a shocking result to achieve.
 
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I voted Pogacar, but man I can't believe nobody has voted for Vingegaard. The guy has a great skillset for a gc rider, he has just been by far the strongest climber in the most recent Tour and has a boarderline superteam at his disposal. The jury is still out there if he can maintain this years level for a long period but I'd say his chances of beating Froome's 7 are about as good as Pogacar's.

Also I disagree that Froome is the "clear"favorite. I agree there is a decent chance nobody can catch his total, but I don't think it's likely. Like, how many generations of gc riders have there been without one winning at least 7 grand tours?
Coppi did it in the 40's-50's, Anquetil in the 50's-60's, Mercx in the 60's-70's, Hinault in the 70's-80's, Indurain in the 90's, Armstrong in the 00's, Contador in the 00's to 10's and Froome in the 10's. I'd bet there will be another one in the 20's and I think it's quite likely it will be one of Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel. And as some have said, it's not like Froome was the most dominant figure one could think of, winning at every opportunity he got (and neither was Contador btw). Someone who is a step or two above his competitors can still dominate gt's and rack up a big number of wins.
 
What do we base eras on though? If I look at the GT riders who were there in like 2016 and who are still here now and who have stayed reasonably consistent I don't think they're that much worse. Especially from 2018 onwards guys like Landa, Yates and Mas are reasonably good bellweathers. Hell, even Grandpa Nibali was top 5 in a GT this year. Thomas was 3rd in the Tour comfortably and he's arguably one of the weakest TdF winners this century.
I think it's true that the 5th to 10th best gc riders right now are probably about as good as the 5th to 10 best gc riders 5 years ago. What has changed is how Pogacar and Vingegaard have been able to play with the those 2nd tier riders. From 2016 onwards Froome had never been able to dominate his opponents on climbs like he used to and I absolutely agree that, had he encountered any one of Contador, Quintana or Nibali at their peak in those years, they might have caused him problems. Basically none of the big 4 ever reached their best level again after 2015 and that left guys like Bardet and Uran as Froome's toughest opponents.

That said, let's wait and see. One of Pogacar, Vingegaard or Evenepoel might emerge as the clear number one in the near future while the other two fade away early and we will talk about how one of them was lucky to never compete against proper competition. Nobody could have imagined downplaying Froome due to lacking competition after 2015 yet here we are.
 
Although I could have been more clear in the title, its the first sentence that you wrote as I explained in the opening post.

@Red Rick, while I don't think Froome's era was weak in absolute terms in my opinion it was weaker to the one we have nowadays, that's why I wrote relatively. Riders like Uran, Bardet or even Quintana would find it difficult to get into the Tour podium nowadays. The level in the other GT's probably didn't rise as much but Nibali benefitted from Yates, Almeida and Bardet all dropping out of the Giro and a Giro top5 isn't exactly a shocking result to achieve.
It doesn't make much sense saying comparing eras, because prime quintana, prime froome, or prime nibali, would do better numbers in this era. Froome, quintana, nibali, if they had today 22, 23 or 24 years, they would do better numbers than they had in the past. With new technology, new training methods,science advances, and other things that we can't talk here, they would do better numbers and fight with the best of today's era.
 
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Also I disagree that Froome is the "clear"favorite. I agree there is a decent chance nobody can catch his total, but I don't think it's likely. Like, how many generations of gc riders have there been without one winning at least 7 grand tours?
I do think Froome is a clear favourite here, but I was just about to make this point. There has 'always' been a 7-times-or-more GT champion. However, what is a bit different from the last few generations of multiple GT winners is that there are several major favourites who will likely take turns beating each other, as Armchair Cyclist mentioned. In the 00s, Armstrong winning the Tour seemed like a given, while from ~2007-2010 Contador was also the clear and undisputed number one. It was the same with Froome for a few years, too.

Today nobody stands out that much above the rest. This can change if one of the current crop steps it up one notch though. They're all young, so it can happen. But it also feels like all of Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Ayuso are talents of a level you rarely see that many of per generation.

And the question of 'weaker eras' is also interesting, and kind of hard to quantify. I do agree that Uran and Bardet getting 2nd in the Tour in the Froome era does indicate some non-stellar competition, but then again there were a few years where we had the 'big four' of Froome, Contador, Nibali and Quintana sharing all the GTs between themselves where it seemed somewhat competitive at the top.

As for 2022, while it seems like there's some really high level GT competition with the likes of Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic, Bernal (hopefully) and possibly Evenepoel and Ayuso, it could be that we're a bit blinded by how good a lot of them are over an entire season. That is contributing to the all-time great talents label, I think. Remember that even in the supposedly very competitive era we're in, we had a 4th, 5th and 6th in GTs in 2022 from Nibali/Bilbao/Hirt (Giro), Gaudu/Vlasov/Bardet (Tour) and Lopez/Almeida/Arensman (Vuelta). Compare that to 2015, the height of the Froome era: Amador/Hesjedal/König (Giro), Nibali/Contador/Gesink (Tour) and Quintana/Chaves/Dumoulin (Vuelta). At the moment I don't see a much stronger competition in depth, at least, even though it might potentially be tougher at the podium level in the coming years.

Climbing times seemed to have a bit of a dip in the 2010s though, if I remember correctly, so that could be an argument.
 
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So you think Bernal is more likely to win again than Rogla!?
Bernal isn't in the poll. Me arguing Bernal should be added to the poll came after I stated what I did about Froome and Rogla. I think of those listed in the poll, Froome is the least likely to win another (which I think should be obvious to all), with Rogla the next least likely, largely because he's 33 years old, has a habit of crashing, and is in the same team as one of the other candidates in the poll who is a decade younger and, at this point in time when it comes to 3 week racing, better than him. Rogla might get another Vuelta but I'm 50-50 on that - the number of winners at ages 33 and above historically is very limited (Sastre was 33, Rominger's last Giro and Evans' Tour was at 34, Horner is an obvious outlier) and with Ayuso and Carlos Rodríguez coming through who are likely to target the Vuelta for the foreseeable at their age and, you know, being Spanish, plus the likes of Mas (hell, if the rumour mill is correct and Rodríguez has signed for Movistar from 2024, Mas might be best served going all in on the Vuelta in 2023 as it might be his last chance as sole leader), and his penchant for crashing is having bigger and bigger repercussions as he gets older and the injuries mount up and take longer to recover from.

Bernal I think is more of a wildcard. I would not anticipate him coming back strong, and fear it may be a Beloki type situation - but he's still young and I won't write him off until we know what post-injury Bernal is like. Yes, a Greg Lemond story is the exception rather than the norm, but nevertheless it did happen and so I don't want to omit him from the mix just yet.

After all, there are only three GTs a season and quite a few of these guys will be targeting the same one as one another most years, so there is the room for somebody unexpected to grab one as well, whether they be a flash in the pan or a surprise like Hesjedal or Geogeghan Hart (the latter has the chance to deliver on it, but at the moment it looks like a GT equivalent of Oliver Zaugg's Lombardia, where he had his best legs ever at the most convenient time imaginable to deliver on it), or a legit contender who is nevertheless not really seen by most as on the same level as the Pogs and Remcos of this world, like Carapaz or Hindley.
 
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