Which active rider will win more Grand Tours

[Netserk]

Climbing times seemed to have a bit of a dip in the 2010s though, if I remember correctly, so that could be an argument.

Well, many of the best climbers were eliminated between Armstrong's first retirement (you can choose Heras's positive as the start too or go back a year and include Hamilton's positive and Mayo's scare) and the introduction of the bio-passport (again, we can include the CERA positives and later Contador's ban as well). So we had two effects, both that anti-doping advanced quite a bit in that period and limited the riders to a greater degree, and that most of the very best climbers were caught or otherwise eliminated/handicapped: Armstrong, Basso, Ullrich, Heras, Pérez, Nozal, Mayo, Hamilton, Sevilla, Mancebo, Valverde, Vino, Kash, Rasmussen, Ricco, Piepoli, Kohl, Di Luca, Pellizotti, Contador and several others. Very few of the best climbers were unscathed, or rather only those below the best or at the end or beginning of their careers. Imagine what the peloton would look like today if we lost as many of the best climbers and how that would affect the climbing speeds.

I think 2010-2012 was the slowest peloton uphill in my lifetime.

 

[Bolder]

Given the parameters of the poll, i had to vote for just Pogacar. He will win 8, 6 tours and one each Giro and Vuelta.

But if I could both fantasize and project, Roglic already would have 5 GTs (2020 Tour and 2019 Giro) and can win 2 more (GIro or Vuelta), Bernal would be in line to win at least 4 more, with one of them another Tour.

I just don't yet see Vingegaard as a threat to win more than 7 GTs, nor Evenepoel. I could be totally wrong about Vingegaard, but something tells me the effort of reaching GT-winning form takes a lot of out him, maybe even up to Dumoulin levels...Evenepoel, maybe not quite the climber to win that many GTs and doesn't have the team to support him when the going gets tough. But I wouldn't rule him out as he's a freakishly talented rider who seems to have the ability to rise to the occasion.

I get the hype around Ayuso but am still waiting for that thermonuclear performance we've seen from Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Bernal crying in a corner after reading this OP. I understand why he isn't included, but to then include Ayuso is a bit random for the time being. Two years ago everybody was not thinking if, but how many GT's Almeida would be winning, now he's barely mentioned anymore. Same with Lopez and others before.

I somehow can't see Vingegaard winning a whole lot tbh. Seems like a rider who has a narrow base (compared to top tier rivals) but high peak. Not a lot needs to go wrong in order for something to disturb that peak, and you basically only get one shot per year in that case. If he keeps going to the TDF as a main goal, i don't think he will easily be a factor in the other two GT's. And i still think he is not the most talented GT rider out there to begin with, so things will need to go his way every time, and i can't see that happening. I doubt he will beat Froome, for reasons mentioned and the fact that he turns 26 next month.

If Pogacar starts riding 2 GT's per year, he could beat Froome i'm sure. Evenepoel, maybe, we'll need to see how much of a focus there still is towards other races, and we need to see if he can be more dominant in the Giro than he was in the Vuelta after day 10. I still assume his momentary decline was due to his crash, but if he starts going to the Tour, he probably won't win one GT every year either anyway.

 

[Red Rick]

I think it's true that the 5th to 10th best gc riders right now are probably about as good as the 5th to 10 best gc riders 5 years ago. What has changed is how Pogacar and Vingegaard have been able to play with the those 2nd tier riders. From 2016 onwards Froome had never been able to dominate his opponents on climbs like he used to and I absolutely agree that, had he encountered any one of Contador, Quintana or Nibali at their peak in those years, they might have caused him problems. Basically none of the big 4 ever reached their best level again after 2015 and that left guys like Bardet and Uran as Froome's toughest opponents.

That said, let's wait and see. One of Pogacar, Vingegaard or Evenepoel might emerge as the clear number one in the near future while the other two fade away early and we will talk about how one of them was lucky to never compete against proper competition. Nobody could have imagined downplaying Froome due to lacking competition after 2015 yet here we are.

Good point.

I think in cycling it's extremely hard to lay down markers for clear eras because form and performance can be very volatile due to crashes and injuries and because the best riders actually meet significantly less often. The old "Big 4" really only had 1 year where they were all at peak level, and that year Froome and Contador had the only battle between them after both crashing out of the Vuelta.

Meanwhile 2022 is the 3rd year of Pogacars prime, but also only the first one of Evenepoel and Vingegaard, and I'm still sceptical Evenepoel is that level of climber. Roglic meanwhile still may have a few years at that level if Fred Wright permits it.

Meanwhile I'm back thinking how Andy Schleck shoulda really been there in the mid 2010s. Also insane to think that Roglic is older than the likes of Quintana and might have been there if he had started cycling earlier.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Since only 3 riders have won more than 7 in history, and it used to be much easier to win 2 in the same year, its a pretty safe bet.

Obviously Contador kinda won more, and Coppi would have if not for the war.

I wouldn’t say kind of, he did. Only thing found guilty of was accidentally ingesting and not taking care of what enters his body.


To reach Froome’s 6 or 7 it would require someone to ride the other GTs. Pogacar certainly has age on his side and potentially can do a Contador. But Contador had a 9 year window on his GT wins.

 

[Boes]

Surely froompie will win TdF 2023 and there'll be no doubt as to who should win this poll.

 

[Bonimenier]

Two years ago everybody was not thinking if, but how many GT's Almeida would be winning, now he's barely mentioned anymore.

Were you living in a parallel universe back then?

 

[hayneplane]

I can only see Pogacar getting that many if he starts doing double attempts soon.

Froome may well not be surpasssed as the best riders have other options to target the big one day events in the post Tour section of the season.

Evenepoel I think will get 4-5 in total along with a clutch of monuments.

Ayuso, as a Spaniard, could well pick up a couple of Vueltas.

Vingegaard is the biggest doubt for me as he has the top level to dominate the Tour with that team around him but I have big doubts about his psyche and ability to build back up to go for the big prize again with the full weight of expectation on him. He could win 4+ but if forced to bet on him either winning 4 or 1 I would go 1 as he could lose the motivation like Schleck or Wiggins.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Were you living in a parallel universe back then?

Perhaps not the same as you were in, but sure, it was somewhat of a hyperbole. Undoubtedly not unfamiliar territory for you.
He wore the pink jersey for two weeks, without much help of his team in the mountains, only dropping to 5th place 4 days from the end, having just turned 22. Yes, plenty of people expected him to improve to top tier (which is still possible) especially considering he hadn't trained specifically to go for GC, as Evenepoel had crashed out 6 weeks prior.

 

[Andre]

Ready? Go! My prediction is Remco wins 4 TDF, 2 Giros, 2 Vueltas. Call me crazy if you want....oh and a bunch of more monuments also.

 

[Andy schleck]

Were you living in a parallel universe back then?

He was living in a parallel universe where logic is not his friend. I don't remember people in general telling that almeida would win a lot of Gts, not even in Portugal anyone said that.

 

[Andy schleck]

Ready? Go! My prediction is Remco wins 4 TDF, 2 Giros, 2 Vueltas. Call me crazy if you want....oh and a bunch of more monuments also.

Yeah, you're a bit dellusional in terms of tour france wins.

 

[hrotha]

Ready? Go! My prediction is Remco wins 4 TDF, 2 Giros, 2 Vueltas. Call me crazy if you want....

At the moment he's up there with Aitor González

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He was living in a parallel universe where logic is not his friend. I don't remember people in general telling that almeida would win a lot of Gts, not even in Portugal anyone said that.

Logic is my friend. Trolls and BS artists aren't.

https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-24#post-2569439
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-21#post-2567556
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-46#post-2698594
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-49#post-2702180
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-44#post-2693633
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-45#post-2697897
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-60#post-2707794
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500216
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500246
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500250

That's from a quick search in the topic. Plenty of people expecting or believing him to be a GT winner in the near future. Quite sure some are Portuguese. And i'll leave it to you to do a twitter search in Portuguese and see how Portuguese people didn't think he could win GT's.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Logic is my friend. Trolls and BS artists aren't.

https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-24#post-2569439
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-21#post-2567556
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-46#post-2698594
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-49#post-2702180
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-44#post-2693633
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-45#post-2697897
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-60#post-2707794
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500216
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500246
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500250

That's from a quick search in the topic. Plenty of people expecting or believing him to be a GT winner in the near future. Quite sure some are Portuguese. And i'll leave it to you to do a twitter search in Portuguese and see how Portuguese people didn't think he could win GT's.

I was hoping you found a post of him saying Almeida could win one. I think if everything goes well he can win one or two GTs, but I also thought Roche and Kreuziger could figure it out and they weren’t even close.

Imagine if Tinkov was the UAE owner and making Pogacar ride all 3 GTs to see if he could win them.

 

[Cookster15]

I hope Almeida can win one or two grand tours. He is tenacious and not a pure climber. I like this is a rider. We know he has a killer TT and he seems to be improving his climbing so I’ll be cheering for him.

 

[Andy schleck]

I hope Almeida can win one or two grand tours. He is tenacious and not a pure climber. I like this is a rider. We know he has a killer TT and he seems to be improving his climbing so I’ll be cheering for him.

Not really. He got worse on TT this year. Actually, he got worse at everything in UAE. He choose the wrong team. He was improving more on quick step.

 

[Bonimenier]

Logic is my friend. Trolls and BS artists aren't.

https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-24#post-2569439
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-21#post-2567556
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-46#post-2698594
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-49#post-2702180
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-44#post-2693633
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-45#post-2697897
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-60#post-2707794
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500216
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500246
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/joão-almeida-the-portuguese-wolf.36394/page-5#post-2500250

That's from a quick search in the topic. Plenty of people expecting or believing him to be a GT winner in the near future. Quite sure some are Portuguese. And i'll leave it to you to do a twitter search in Portuguese and see how Portuguese people didn't think he could win GT's.

I don't see anyone saying he would win multiple GTs in those posts.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't see anyone saying he would win multiple GTs in those posts.

No, obviously when people say a 22-24 your old could win "this Vuelta/Giro already" they forgot to add "but that's the only GT he'll ever win!" Because obviously, that omission is implied.

 

[Bolder]

Not really. He got worse on TT this year. Actually, he got worse at everything in UAE. He choose the wrong team. He was improving more on quick step.

He did, a bit, but I also think he may have been ill a lot or had covid. He didn't progress, at least. But I feel pretty confident in saying that he won't win more GTs than Froome...

 

[Andy schleck]

He did, a bit, but I also think he may have been ill a lot or had covid. He didn't progress, at least. But I feel pretty confident in saying that he won't win more GTs than Froome...

Even for pogacar or Vingegaard will be very difficult to win more GTs than froome. The level and the competitiveness is very high. And it will take some time to someone win tour and vuelta in the same year like froome did.

 

[Bonimenier]

No, obviously when people say a 22-24 your old could win "this Vuelta/Giro already" they forgot to add "but that's the only GT he'll ever win!" Because obviously, that omission is implied.

I don't see an "already" in those posts either. It being the Covid Giro shouldn't be forgotten also.

 

[Escarabajo]

The Vingegard low response is probably due to the fact that he will be targeting the same race as Pogacar and it seems that everyone favors Pogacar. That coupled with the emergence of Remco and Ayuso does not leave him with much room.

Competition is very high right now so Froome' s record is looking better and better with the years.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't see an "already" in those posts either. It being the Covid Giro shouldn't be forgotten also.

Literally the first link, lol.

As if it matters even. As if anybody thinks a cyclist is capable of winning exactly one certain race exactly one time in his career. Definitely one, not zero, but certainly not two or more! Tell me, in what universe do people reason like that? Yours?

Keep it going though. This is yawn an interesting discussion. Wait, did Netserk hack your account?

 

[Cookster15]

The Vingegard low response is probably due to the fact that he will be targeting the same race as Pogacar and it seems that everyone favors Pogacar. That coupled with the emergence of Remco and Ayuso does not leave him with much room.

Competition is very high right now so Froome' s record is looking better and better with the years.

I think most fans still think Pog is the better and more versatile GC rider, don’t expect him to make the same mistakes in the TdF and he will be hungry to make amends.