- Nov 16, 2013
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From someone who is always very protective about being quoted exactly correctly, this is not a very reasonable post.
From someone who is always very protective about being quoted exactly correctly, this is not a very reasonable post.
Anything can happen in Tour 2023, but the reality this year is that Vingegaard was by far the stronger climber of the two and mistakes and Pogi's weak team are highly overrated as arguments, the Dane was clearly better than him.
Of course Pogi as a rider is better and more versatile, but as a GG rider for GrandTours (for GC at one week stage races yes) he is not, he is more versatile to win stages and be more spectacular, but not to gain time, if Vingegaard repeats this crazy level of course, even if the parcours is slightly favorauble for the slovenian like next edition.
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- Jul 18, 2020
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I think four months after the tour france, many people keep thinking that vingegaard just won because pogacar made some mistakes, and that it will not happen anymore.
Pogacar even without some mistakes wouldn't have a chance against that vingegaard in the shape of his life. Even gianetti said that pogacar was in the shape of his life. The problem for pogacar is that vingegaard's level was to high for him. Look at hautacam's stage. Vingegaard did 6.2 w/kg for 29 min on spandelles, and next on hautacam he did 6.32 for almost 36 min. Probably are the best mountain performances at the tour in this century since armstrong.
Pogacar made some mistakes on the stage of granon, but even without mistakes he would lose time to vingegaard. It was one of the best performances ever at altitude. He did 6.1 w/kg in a stage finish at 2450 m during 35 min. In general, they lose 6% of power for 1000 vertical meters. If vingegaard next year keeps or improves this level, it will be almost impossible to anyone beat him, and that't not just the watts. It was the most fastest tour of this century and he did that.
I'm betting on him to win a lot of Gts in the next years, he's a pure GT rider, because of what he did. But i could also be wrong, and he never delivers the performances that he did last year. It could happens that he wouldn't not win another GT anymore.
It's crazy how he can maintain the watts he produces in medium conditions (in terms of hardness) in the toughest stages, for example he did the same in Hautacam (LeTour stage 20) as in Plateau de Solaison (Dauphiné stage 8). His numbers at altitude are also crazy after putting in some crazy efforts before like on stage 11, very few in this century can say that. Pogacar at this moment is much less skilled than him in these conditions, Ventoux 21 is a worst example but it is the first in which we could begin to guess this trend.
In summary: The hardest= the better for Jonas and the worst for Pogi against him (only speaking about really high mountain stages and altitude climbs, not for medium moutains or average mouintain stages where the slovenian is a killer in any condition).
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- May 14, 2009
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- Jun 7, 2011
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Oh boy. So when you say you think a young rider can win a GT in the near future, you actually mean he can only win exactly one, and no more? And if there is one thing i am more protective of than a correct quote, it surely has to be the context and meaning behind it. Which is what we were discussing here. But whatever Toby.
FYI, i started by showing the exact quote he was looking for.
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- Jul 7, 2013
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Last year I thought Pogacar can even achieve 10+ GTs but considering his one-day races excellence, focus on one GT per season and the fact that he was actually beaten this year I think even 7 GT won't be easy to achieve. Froome can end up with the highest number indeed but I think Pogi may match it. Remco, too early too tell, he should win a few GTs but he's also a great one-day racer and can mix races in his calendar. They both can end up as greater cyclists than Froome no doubt, but that's not what the question is about. As for Vinge, the answer is no: only one GT at the age of 26 and short-lasting peak. He can obviously win the TdF again (which will be his focus probably) but getting to 7-8 is a different story. Ayuso too early too tell, Roglic too old and unlucky.
- Apr 30, 2011
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Is saying that a rider could win a Grand Tour in the near future not exactly answering the "if" question, and not the how many? Who spoke of multiple GT wins?
Oh, wait. Busted!
Clearly talking about how many GTs he'll win in the future!!!!
- Jul 8, 2017
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The way the question is written, I think anyone but Froome.
If, however it is meant to be (as most of the people imply), who will finish his career with most GT wins, I'd say Froome.
Ayuso is still too young. And despite his great Vuelta, I'd still rate Pogacar's 1st Vuelta higher. And given the fact that most of the top guys are young, I don't think he will rack that many wins.
Pogacar. He can really compete with Froome, but he seems to like the one day races and puts a lot of effort into them. Besides, he has a certain weakness in the really tough, hard ridden (and hot) mountain stage. Luckily for him, next year it the Tour there isn't a stage where he can ship big time.
Evenepoel. I can apply pretty the same as Pogacar. Plus I'm not really sure that even Vuelta Evenepoel can compete with top Pog. However, he seems keen to go for the Giro and if he doubles with Vuelta, he may very well have 3 by this time next year.
Vingegaard. He kinda reminds me of Froome. Even updated version of him, as he used to struggle bad in the last part of the GT's. If he goes to the Giro, he is my main favorite. This route really suits him to the toe imo. It's hard to design a better route for him, actually. He may very well win a few GT's, the main concern is that the others are all younger than him.
Roglic. Simply too old to win that many GT's. He will probably win one or two more, but not 4.
Bernal (although not included on the poll). He is young and has 2 GT's already.. Crazy to think he is younger than Vingegaard, but even if he recovers, I don't think he'll win 5 more. The competition is too fierce.
Bonus inclusion: Carlos Rodriguez and maybe Arensman. They seem to progress really steadily and I won't be surprised if next year some of them is already on the GT winners level.
As a conclusion, I don't think we'll see riders having so many GT wins in future. Despite what others think about the longer career and better technically and perhaps medically (not clinic related) teams, most of the riders even nowadays tend to peak for 5-8 years. And with the quantity of young talents emerging at younger age, many riders will be on the way down by the age of 28.
If, however it is meant to be (as most of the people imply), who will finish his career with most GT wins, I'd say Froome.
Ayuso is still too young. And despite his great Vuelta, I'd still rate Pogacar's 1st Vuelta higher. And given the fact that most of the top guys are young, I don't think he will rack that many wins.
Pogacar. He can really compete with Froome, but he seems to like the one day races and puts a lot of effort into them. Besides, he has a certain weakness in the really tough, hard ridden (and hot) mountain stage. Luckily for him, next year it the Tour there isn't a stage where he can ship big time.
Evenepoel. I can apply pretty the same as Pogacar. Plus I'm not really sure that even Vuelta Evenepoel can compete with top Pog. However, he seems keen to go for the Giro and if he doubles with Vuelta, he may very well have 3 by this time next year.
Vingegaard. He kinda reminds me of Froome. Even updated version of him, as he used to struggle bad in the last part of the GT's. If he goes to the Giro, he is my main favorite. This route really suits him to the toe imo. It's hard to design a better route for him, actually. He may very well win a few GT's, the main concern is that the others are all younger than him.
Roglic. Simply too old to win that many GT's. He will probably win one or two more, but not 4.
Bernal (although not included on the poll). He is young and has 2 GT's already.. Crazy to think he is younger than Vingegaard, but even if he recovers, I don't think he'll win 5 more. The competition is too fierce.
Bonus inclusion: Carlos Rodriguez and maybe Arensman. They seem to progress really steadily and I won't be surprised if next year some of them is already on the GT winners level.
As a conclusion, I don't think we'll see riders having so many GT wins in future. Despite what others think about the longer career and better technically and perhaps medically (not clinic related) teams, most of the riders even nowadays tend to peak for 5-8 years. And with the quantity of young talents emerging at younger age, many riders will be on the way down by the age of 28.
- Jun 7, 2011
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Well, pogacar was still a year older than Ayuso was now, and Pogacar actually got dropped more or harder than Ayuso did iirc. The main thing is that Pog did win 3 stages and Ayuso won 0. Taking the TT out of it, i think Ayuso rode a remarkably solid and consistent Vuelta. He got dropped a few times but never that hard. Finished before Roglic in the stages Roglic was bad, finished before Evenepoel in the stages Evenepoel was bad. I'm not convinced Ayuso could not be a better GT/GC rider than Pogacar, but it does seem unlikely he will be a better allround cyclist than Pogacar. For now i feel (like i said before) it's a bit too soon to include him here, personally i want to see more first, but he has impressed me the most considering his age and GT debut, since Pogacar's Vuelta.
Not impossible, but if you want to include these guys, you could as well include Almeida, Hindley (who already won one) and a few others.
- Jul 8, 2017
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These are all valid points about Ayuso, I think a question about who had a better Vuelta between him and Pogacar can have a pretty decent discussion. He is impressive, I don't deny that even for a second, but considering the top dogs are already on a very high level and complete GT riders plus all young, will be hard for Ayuso to win 7+.
I did not include any of them as I simply don't believe they will win many GT's. The topic is about many GT wins (7+). Yes, I believe they MAY win some, their top level doesn't seem high enough to dominate. While Rodriguez and (to a lesser extent) Arensman are still progressing and neither of us knows where they will stop.
P.s. As I said in my Ayuso point about the young top riders applies here as well.
That's why I said in my original post that likely young riders will cancel each other and 4-5 GT's will be high number for future.
- Aug 13, 2011
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All I know is the history shows there will be a rider to win 7 or more GTs coming up, while there are 2 who will win 2-5, and a bunch of 1-2 time winners. I think Pogacar will fill that role while Evenepoel and Vingegaard will play the role of 2-5 time GT winners second fiddle to the main winner. What can stop Pogacar from reaching that is he could win every monument so could focus on those opening the door to Evenepoel, Vingegaard, or someone else to rack up wins. Depending on how next season goes I’d want to see Pogacar focus on the monuments and GTs instead of trying to win everything like this year.
- Jan 8, 2020
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As to your last statement, I'd say it depends on whether or not a difinitive, epoch-making rider emerges over the next years. Until this year that seemed to be TP, but then Vingo beat him at the Tour (although I'm sure Tadej will be back with a vengeance next year) and then Evenepoel proved he is GT material at the Vuelta. Whereas the issue over longevity I think depends on who comes along, in say 5 or 6 years, capable of exacting the necessary pressure to bear and unseat the Bigs of today. One thing to consider, however, is that in cycling it is said a truly prodigous talent is born only once "every thirty years." I realize this isn't science, but I've heard more than one top pro say it in the past and about a certain current rider. The point is that if there is any truth to the assumption, in theory we could see a rider dominate for a decade or so and, in this case, arrive at 7+ GTs won (although, even if not a current, but recent, rider, Contador on the road sets a higher benchmark at 9).
And this brings me to the other two riders, Vingegaard and Evenepoel, the only ones besides Pogacar at present who seem possible candidates to win the title of this inquiry. One thing going in Jonas's favor is that, especially over the last decades, multiple GT winners have a dominant team to unwaveringly support their leader's ambitions. It was this way with US Postal/Discovery and then Sky/Ineos, but now that mantel seems to be firmly donned by Jumbo-Visma. Consequently, Vingegaard is on the right team to win the coveted prize and has shown at the Tour that he is arguably the best climber in the world at the moment, who can also TT rather well, at least when he needs to in a GT. As others have wondered, however, is he mentally tough enough to handle the pressure, expectations and fame of riding on the best team in the world year in and year out and repeatedly winning the Tour? Based on how he reacted to the whole post-Tour mediatic mayhem and the consequences for his private life, which he seems to jealously safegaurd, I have my doubts. In other words, Jonas seems subject to traumatic mental disomfort from this, if not to say psychological crisis (although he denys it, but would he openly admit to such a difficulty in his position?). By contrast, his main rival Pogacar appears not phased in the least by such overwhelming fuss and attention. Mental instability could thus be Vingo's Achille's Heal, but only time will tell of course.
Regarding Evenepoel I think it's fair to say he's finally back on track after his terrible and potentially life-threatening Lombardia crash with its very serious injuries, which for all intents and purposes gave a false impression of his actual level comming into 2022, because of a troubled and ill-fated 2021 campaign. That's because his recovery was handled poorly by the team. Principally the botched effort at that Giro he should never have started, negatively conditioned his whole season right down to the Olympics and Belgium's Worlds debacle. Now, however, we have seen what a healthy and untroubled Remco is capable of doing, as if the remarkable promise he showed before Lombardia 2020 is the trajectory we can expect for the future. Valverde's sensational assessment of his talent (he is "by far" the best), however one considers the matter, was an uncompromising belief in this. But again, only time will tell.
Perhaps the main obstacle in Evenepoel's path to GT dominance is his team, because it doesn't seem equiped in the near future to be able to control three weeks at the Tour, unlike Jumbo-Visma has masterfully done (also considering Ronan's praise of the squad, its methodology and rigor) or, until recently, Sky/Ineos. Yet Remco hasn't even ridden the Tour, so it's anyone's guess if he can handle the likes of a top Vingegaard or Pogacar on the big cols of France in July. On the other hand, who could argue the potential and talent are lacking after this season? Mentally he seems just as iron-willed and ferocious an assassin as Pogacar when wanting to stamp his authority over a race. His crushing dominance at Liege, San Sebastian and Worlds, moreover, arguably surpasses anything we have seen in similarly prestigious one day races from the Slovenian. This is why, in addition to his dominance at the Vuelta, I think Valverde was so struck by his athletic prowess. With this as a promise and if he continues to go faster up mountains and in TTs, then he's going to be a hard nut to crack imo even for the great Vingegaard and Pogacar (although perhaps Jonas's performance level on the Granon could only be matched).
On another note, he does seem to be a really emotional rider, as his outpouring of tears upon winning Lombardia, the Vuelta and I think Worlds too attests. Aparently this indicates an uncontrollable release of tremendous pressure that was bottled up within, a liberation of (perhaps good agonistic) stress and pent up excitement that must be controlled during the race to react lucidly and do the right moves. I attribute this likely in part, on the one hand, to a character trait of his personality. It isn't necessarily a flaw or weakness that could hamper him, however, as long as his emotions are transformed into positive energy (one thing that's truly remarkable about Pogacar is that he doesn't seem to know what pressure or stress means and simply treats even the most important races in cycling as play, as something just to have fun with/doing). On the other hand, being Belgian, part of Evenepoel's emotional outbursts after winning his truly big goals seem attributable to the overbearing scrutiny, pressure and expectation that's placed on his shoulders. Neither Vingegaard nor Pogacar have anything remotely similar to deal with from their national press or fans. The type of emotions this engenders within Remco could potentially cause problems if turned into negative energy, a prospect he and his team seem all too aware of, for which Andora has been chosen as the new geografical base, far from the intrusive atmosphere of Flanders. Yet while he seems susceptible to rage over critics and doubters, he evidently can harness that ire,
transforming it into an invincible force, which, once unleashed, literally annihilates the peleton like at Liege and Worlds.
Lastly, as regards the others you mentioned, I don't at the moment see a threat to any of the above three for the title among them. Some because they just don't have the talent, like Almeida and Hindley, others like Bernal due to injury (and perhaps he is not overall as capable) or Roglic, because too old, as you say; whereas specimens like Rodriguez and Arensman simply need to accomplish a lot more to be seriously considered. Ayuso, however, is an interesting prospect. But he still needs to step up considerably (in the sense that going from third to the top spot on a GC podium is a massive step) in both climbing and TTing and in this the others are still far ahead. True, youth is on his side, but it's not like the others are Methuselahs. His greatest hindrance, however, is that the Pogi is on his team, for which it will be years if he remains on UAE before Ayuso can assume top leadership for GCs. Thus unless he wants to target exclusively the Vuelta, broader GT ambitions and support at the Tour and Giro, doubtless necessary to coming out on top of this competition, will probably have to be on another team.
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- Jan 8, 2020
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Chris Froome will continue to be one of the strong and competitive active riders? Get off the crack pipe mate.
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He who makes the least errors. top form, optimum weight and no crashes and maybe tame competition
Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
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Hmm, the poll suggests you are in the extreme minority - Vingegaard has zero votes and Pogacar 38. Few fans knew who Vingegaard was until July 2021. When he briefly dropped Pog on Ventoux people noticed, yet he still finished that tour 5 minutes down. Pog has a long history of results prior to the 2020 TdF and is obviously more talented. 2022 was an aberration, not only will Pog not make the mistakes of stage 11, but UAE will also be smarter too.
- Jul 18, 2020
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Pogacar is the best rider in the world, a very complete rider. But vingegaard showed this year that he can be a better GT rider than pogacar. So, i'm betting on vingegaard to win many GTs alongside the best team in the WT. Could i, be wrong? Like i said, of course i can. Let's see what happens in the next years. Make no mistake about it, even with a more strong UAE and without some mistakes from pogacar, vingegaard would win the tour, like he won. His level was too high. The question is, can vingegaard comeback next year tour de france with the same shape? Let's see.
Besides that, personally, if pogacar and vingegaard win many GTs in the next years, i will be happy about that. They appear to be two very humble guys with a lot of respect for everybody, and they are a offensive riders.
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Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
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Yes, we will see. Vingegaard's level was high compared to Pog who made errors. Vingegaard has never shown that level before despite nearly two years older? Pog has results from 2016 when he was only 18.
The other thing is JV, without their strength doubtful Vingegaard would win. Pog can win without that kind of support in the mountains. One possible weakness in Pog's armour is altitude. In 2020 TdF dropped 15 seconds to Roglic on a 2,400metre MTF and then what we saw in stage 11. But agree, we will see.
I don't know man, I don't see that much reason for doubt. His team was superb but its not like he was dragged to victory, he was as imperious as it gets, never in trouble, and miles away from everyone bar pogacar, and he handled him quite comfortably as well.
Everything else, agreed.
- Jul 18, 2020
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Even in the TT, vingegaard showed that he individually was more stronger.
Jumbo played a important role in protecting vingegaard until the last climb of every stage.
- Jan 8, 2020
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Yeah, he doesn't seem to particularly like being an 'alpha' or the stress/press.
The problem with Vingegaard is that he'll be 26 and doesn't seem likely to target the lesser GTs. He's not going to win 7 more TdFs.
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