- Jul 7, 2013
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Start of the season is a good time for this question as MSR discussions are getting stronger. Let's analyse the three holes in Pogacar's already historical palmares. Here is a summary:
Milan - San Remo
places: 5, 4, 3, 3 (2022-2025)
Pogacar keeps delivering shows and keeps losing in this race. Last year's attack on Cipressa was spectacular, it changed the usual Poggio script but the outcome was the same. There is always someone (mostly Van der Poel) able to withstand Pogacar's furious attacks on those shallow gradients and some other guys (like Ganna and Philipsen) managed to catch Pog and beat him at the end too.
The biggest problem are obviously shallow gradients (and strong drafting), which mean Pogacar always has had a tail while his descending and sprinting is not enough vs top MSR specialists. Maybe a bit of team tactics (i.e. attacking with two guys: he and Del Toro) will change the dynamics. Or maybe a surprising attempt in the last couple of kilometers? Not sure if brute-force strategy will ever work.
Paris - Roubaix
places: 2 (2025)
Pogacar delivered a great performance on his debut but lost to Van der Poel, who is the only obstacle on his way to total domination. The Slovenian misjudged the corner, had some defect and got distanced by the Dutch. He tried hard to close the gap but seemingly cracked at the very end.
PR is an honest, attritional race compared to MSR but there's a bigger chance for some random event. Van der Poel is still the man to beat but a lot things can happen in this race and it's also possible the Pog will develop his cobbles engine even more in the next 2-3 years (by adding kilos and power, possibly even at the cost of skipping the Tour at some point).
Vuelta
places: 3 (2019)
The easiest in theory but after his spectacular debut in 2019 Pogacar didn't ride it for 6 consecutive seasons completely missing it in his prime! Post-Tour fatigue or prioritizing WC always won.
Now it's really about taking part in this race while being in decent form. It's possible he will try this year but after all-monuments attack and the Tour it's not certain. Generally he should do Vuelta rather sooner or later (i.e. this or next year), his dominance won't last forever.
Milan - San Remo
places: 5, 4, 3, 3 (2022-2025)
Pogacar keeps delivering shows and keeps losing in this race. Last year's attack on Cipressa was spectacular, it changed the usual Poggio script but the outcome was the same. There is always someone (mostly Van der Poel) able to withstand Pogacar's furious attacks on those shallow gradients and some other guys (like Ganna and Philipsen) managed to catch Pog and beat him at the end too.
The biggest problem are obviously shallow gradients (and strong drafting), which mean Pogacar always has had a tail while his descending and sprinting is not enough vs top MSR specialists. Maybe a bit of team tactics (i.e. attacking with two guys: he and Del Toro) will change the dynamics. Or maybe a surprising attempt in the last couple of kilometers? Not sure if brute-force strategy will ever work.
Paris - Roubaix
places: 2 (2025)
Pogacar delivered a great performance on his debut but lost to Van der Poel, who is the only obstacle on his way to total domination. The Slovenian misjudged the corner, had some defect and got distanced by the Dutch. He tried hard to close the gap but seemingly cracked at the very end.
PR is an honest, attritional race compared to MSR but there's a bigger chance for some random event. Van der Poel is still the man to beat but a lot things can happen in this race and it's also possible the Pog will develop his cobbles engine even more in the next 2-3 years (by adding kilos and power, possibly even at the cost of skipping the Tour at some point).
Vuelta
places: 3 (2019)
The easiest in theory but after his spectacular debut in 2019 Pogacar didn't ride it for 6 consecutive seasons completely missing it in his prime! Post-Tour fatigue or prioritizing WC always won.
Now it's really about taking part in this race while being in decent form. It's possible he will try this year but after all-monuments attack and the Tour it's not certain. Generally he should do Vuelta rather sooner or later (i.e. this or next year), his dominance won't last forever.
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