Question Which races will Pogacar win during his career?

[Krzysztof_O]

Start of the season is a good time for this question as MSR discussions are getting stronger. Let's analyse the three holes in Pogacar's already historical palmares. Here is a summary:

Milan - San Remo

places: 5, 4, 3, 3 (2022-2025)

Pogacar keeps delivering shows and keeps losing in this race. Last year's attack on Cipressa was spectacular, it changed the usual Poggio script but the outcome was the same. There is always someone (mostly Van der Poel) able to withstand Pogacar's furious attacks on those shallow gradients and some other guys (like Ganna and Philipsen) managed to catch Pog and beat him at the end too.

The biggest problem are obviously shallow gradients (and strong drafting), which mean Pogacar always has had a tail while his descending and sprinting is not enough vs top MSR specialists. Maybe a bit of team tactics (i.e. attacking with two guys: he and Del Toro) will change the dynamics. Or maybe a surprising attempt in the last couple of kilometers? Not sure if brute-force strategy will ever work.

Paris - Roubaix

places: 2 (2025)

Pogacar delivered a great performance on his debut but lost to Van der Poel, who is the only obstacle on his way to total domination. The Slovenian misjudged the corner, had some defect and got distanced by the Dutch. He tried hard to close the gap but seemingly cracked at the very end.

PR is an honest, attritional race compared to MSR but there's a bigger chance for some random event. Van der Poel is still the man to beat but a lot things can happen in this race and it's also possible the Pog will develop his cobbles engine even more in the next 2-3 years (by adding kilos and power, possibly even at the cost of skipping the Tour at some point).

Vuelta

places: 3 (2019)

The easiest in theory but after his spectacular debut in 2019 Pogacar didn't ride it for 6 consecutive seasons completely missing it in his prime! Post-Tour fatigue or prioritizing WC always won.

Now it's really about taking part in this race while being in decent form. It's possible he will try this year but after all-monuments attack and the Tour it's not certain. Generally he should do Vuelta rather sooner or later (i.e. this or next year), his dominance won't last forever.

 

[Berniece]

I hope he eventually wins all of them, just not in the same season, spread it out a bit, make him less dominant

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I chose Vuelta and Roubaix. I do believe soon he will have more freedom to choose races (skipping Tour at least once) and focus on PR even more (but he can win it even this year, methinks, this race has some upredictibility).

It seems to me that San Remo is his boogie race: obviously last year it was MVP who stopped him but given the race specificity there could be someone else in the future. He might win it with some unorthodox tactis (not brute force) or later in his career (when he's not the man everybody watches anymore).

 

[Samu Cuenca]

GP de Quebéc

Places: 24 (2022), 7, 29 (2024-2025)

Clásica San Sebastián - Donostia Klasikoa

Places: DNF (2019), DNF (2022)

 

[Krzysztof_O]

GP de Quebéc

Places: 24 (2022), 7, 29 (2024-2025)

Clásica San Sebastián - Donostia Klasikoa

Places: DNF (2019), DNF (2022)

I obviously chose from the Big9 of the season (as those are the most obvious holes in one's resume). One could add Olympics but it's only once in 4 years event so not winning it isn't so telling.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I have voted Vuelta and MSR. I thinks it's gonna happen eventually for him there, whereas one edition of PR isn't enough date for me to predict his future fortunes in that race.

I obviously chose from the Big9 of the season (as those are the most obvious holes in one's resume). One could add Olympics but it's only once in 4 years event so not winning it isn't so telling.

At this point I'm starting to feel the most prestigious races on the calendar should be the ones he hasn't won yet.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

At this point I'm starting to feel the most prestigious races on the calendar should be the ones he hasn't won yet.

Tour de Pologne is then one of the biggest races pushing Vingegaard and Evenepoel ahead of Pogacar in terms of stage racing resume.

 

[AmRacer]

Clasica San Remco

 

[Red Rick]

Roubaix should be easier than Sanremo

 

[Devil's Elbow]

All three. He should still have at least one year at his current level left when Van der Poel starts to decline, and then that would probably be that.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I hope he doesn‘t win Roubaix by Van der Poel puncturing or something like that, I hope we get a more tactical edition than Pogačar going away with Van der Poel and then both pulling before Pogačar does his attacks. For Sanremo I don‘t know if his chances are over- or underrated, because I‘m yet to see him actually solo home from Cipressa with the likes of Van der Poel chasing behind and he‘s just brute forcing too hard. Vuelta Easy Win if he shows up this or next year.

 

[Red Rick]

All three. He should still have at least one year at his current level left when Van der Poel starts to decline, and then that would probably be that.

Question is if anyone else might be able to beat him by that time, and that should be most plausible for Sanremo.

I also think he has more room for improvement in Roubaix, having only raced it once, and thus more chance to beat MvdP straight up

 

[Netserk]

other/vino : neither

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Question is if anyone else might be able to beat him by that time, and that should be most plausible for Sanremo.

I also think he has more room for improvement in Roubaix, having only raced it once, and thus more chance to beat MvdP straight up

I don't see any current rider younger than Pogacar who will ever be able to match what Van der Poel does in Sanremo and Roubaix. The closest thing to a threat is Ganna, and Ganna is both easier to drop and easier to beat in a sprint. And anyone who isn't pro yet won't hit his prime before Van der Poel gets old.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I've always said that I think Sanremo is the hardest for him to win. I still think that he'll win all of the above, though.

 

[Netserk]

I don't see any current rider younger than Pogacar who will ever be able to match what Van der Poel does in Sanremo and Roubaix. The closest thing to a threat is Ganna, and Ganna is both easier to drop and easier to beat in a sprint. And anyone who isn't pro yet won't hit his prime before Van der Poel gets old.

you dont need mvdp to beat him in sanremo

eventually riders wont pull with him and i think many can beat him if they get towed from cipressa to the finish

 

[Berniece]

you dont need mvdp to beat him in sanremo

eventually riders wont pull with him and i think many can beat him if they get towed from cipressa to the finish

But are there other riders that will be able to stay with Pogacar when he attacks?

 

[Red Rick]

But are there other riders that will be able to stay with Pogacar when he attacks?

The fact that Ganna could close should at least indicate that its a lot more likely than riders competing in RvV or something.

 

[Berniece]

The fact that Ganna could close should at least indicate that its a lot more likely than riders competing in RvV or something

He was also the only one. You quickly get 2nd group syndrome, which he didn’t have because he was solo

 

[Jan the Man]

The Vuelta is the easiest one in principal if he targeted it but will be the last he targets.

He will never be the biggest favourite for Roubaix and MSR whist MvP rides but of course he has the ability to sweep in if for whatever MvP is not there. I suspect he may never win either of those races but i very much hope he does one day

 

[canina82]

The fact that Ganna could close should at least indicate that its a lot more likely than riders competing in RvV or something.

You are underrating Ganna. Ganna was dropped, I'm pretty sure he would not see Pogacar again in Cipressa if MVP isn't there.

 

[Potomac]

He will save participating in the Vuelta until after he has given up hope of ever winning the TdF again.
It will be his swan song.

 

[Pantani_lives]

He'll add Romandie, Suisse and the Vuelta to his list of wins. He'll also win a fifth Tour, a second Giro, a third world title and a few more climbing classics before 2030. After that he'll have five more attempts at San Remo and Roubaix, finishing second or third every time.

 

[Extinction]

Yes, it

He'll add Romandie, Suisse and the Vuelta to his list of wins. He'll also win a fifth Tour, a second Giro, a third world title and a few more climbing classics before 2030. After that he'll have five more attempts at San Remo and Roubaix, finishing second or third every time.

Yes, it seems that MvdP will stop Pogacar from winning MSR and PN, but, with Tadej, you have to wait and see. In other words, don't say he can't win. And that makes me think. It's logical that MvdP cannot win the Tour, but not Pogacar MSR and Roubaix. It says something.