Which TdF's could Roglič have won?

[Peyroteo94]

I don't agree

there were a few more aspects that could have been different:
-I think Jumbo rode very defensive in the beginning of the Tour, because of the Dauphine crash. So, the Dauphine crash really has impact
-I think they underestimated Pogacar, plus Pog probably had some likeability factor as a fellow countryman. So, after him losing time in the crosswind stage, they misjudged Pogacar attack on Peyresourde.
-In that same stage, Dumoulin lost his head. He was disappointed by the fact that he barely could follow Van Aerts pace on Port du Balet and decided to pace early on Peyresourde. Leaving Roglic alone and funarable later on that climb.
-Jumbo only rode defensive. Never even tried to send Dumoulin in an early attack (he was relatively high in GC), to force the very weak team of Pogacar to work. They just rode around with Pog in their wheels.

I don't agree with you in some points and I will explain why:

1 - Visma rode defensively but I'm not that sure it was because of Roglic’s crash. Roglic always rode like this in his prime. The route was bad, didn't offer much opportunities for decent attacks.

2 - Agreed

3 - It is way more plausible to think Roglic didn't have the legs to attack and Dumoulin was putting a pace for Roglic’s attack. I think Roglic didn't have it that day.

4 - here, you are wrong. Roglic’s biggest rival was Bernal whem they started the Tour. Ineos would never let Dumoulin attack/gain time and Ineos was not weak like UAE. Here, I'm sure this would never happen.

Point 2 was the key to Roglic’s loss. He never thought Pogacar could be stronger than him and he started to realize this in Colombier.
The question is: Would the outcome changed if Roglic knew before the TdF, Pogacar was as strong as him? I don't think so. No one was prepared to what happened in PDBF.