Who Finishes Third?

[ericthesportsman6]

So who finishes third? Velits has a minute 45 on Schleck, Tondo, and Rodriguez. Seems, like a solid enough lead for me, so I'm picking Velits. Discuss.

 

[Scirea]

No love for Danielson, Roche or Sastre?

 

[Zoncolan]

Sastre.......

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

No love for Danielson, Roche or Sastre?

Well chances are that it will be Velits, Shleck or Rodriguez, but I agree that including Tondo and not the above three is pretty odd. I'd rate the small chances of all of three of them ahead of the very small chance of Tondo.

 

[liamlarkin]

I'd like to see Roche make it, but my vote's going to Frank.

 

[skidmark]

A long attack to gain 2 minutes on Velits (and only about 35 seconds on everyone else) is not out of the realm of possibility for Sastre, as the man thrives on the end mountain stages of a 3 week tour (see: Giro 2009, TdF 2008 for clearest examples).

However, my vote would go to Rodriguez to outclimb the others on what seems to be a fairly steep finish. Sastre and someone like Schleck have a chance if they attack early and Rodriguez blows trying to chase, but if they're all there with a few km to go, Rodriguez can blast away like few others.

 

[Archibald]

whoever crests the Bola del Mundo first.

perhaps a Katousha/Saxo alliance to aim for the podium places?

 

[ttrider]

I definitely think it will be Frank, Rodriguez and Sastre in with a shout, cant see velits being anywhere near the others

 

[Moncoutie]

Frank Schleck. Think Velits will get dropped on the final climb.

 

[hrotha]

After Cotobello normally I'd say Velits would lose big time, but after recharging his batteries during the rest day I can't rule out anything.

The fair outcome would be for Joaquim Rodríguez to take 3rd, but I'm gonna say screw fairness and go Tommy D!

 

[JPM London]

It's definitely great that 4-9 are so close right now... I'd expect a lot of fighting from Frank and Sastre - never go down without a fight.

Frank is fit for fight and prob the one with the most left in his legs. Velits lost 3.24 just before the rest day, so should be plenty of opportunity to gain on him for most of the climbers...

Frank is going for podium! (or crack trying)

Damn; it's either watching this on the telly or going to the finale of Tour of Britain live... Help!

 

[Nick C.]

I think Velits has too much time and on most the other mountain stages he was there till the very end so hopefully he is not fading in that regard. More interesting is does HTC give him any assistance on the final climb? Though it may be a stupid if not unfair question since the team is not geared up to be there on a mountain stage.

 

[search]

I think it will be very interesting to see if Tondo and Sastre will manage to work together and start a firework early on the last climb. If they are able to they both have the chance to go for the podium.

Nicolas Roche said in todays blog that either Sastre or Schleck could still win the Vuelta, so he seems to expect a lot from them on saturday. It's definitely gonna be interesting, I hope for early attacks and the favorites to be isolated already on the Puerto de Navacerrada

 

[paperbackwriter]

But I think it was a lot easier for Velits to just hang on and see what happens, especially that guys in contention for the podium probably didn't care that much about him. Now few better climbers will be all against him and he doesn't have his Kreuziger, he won't be able to respond their attacks time after time, if they go for it. If for example Sastre or Frank go very early, he'll be forced to control them and then (assuming they're together by then, maybe not that likely) he'll have to watch Purito on the steepest part.
He may finish third, if others play it stupidly. If they don't and he's that good, I think I'll visit the other thread.

I voted for Rodriguez, though I'm not sure if Frank (or someone) won't drop him long before the last kms. Seems most likely to me that it'll be among those two and Sastre, maybe if Tondo recovered well...

 

[Christian]

Frank is going for podium! (or crack trying)

Damn; it's either watching this on the telly or going to the finale of Tour of Britain live... Help!

Yeah we'll see how much he really has left, but this climb should theoretically suit him the best from the top 3 contenders. Everyone has to give everything they've got, there'll be no tomorrow

I'd watch the stage on TV if I were you!

 

[The Hitch]

So who finishes third? Velits has a minute 45 on Schleck, Tondo, and Rodriguez. Seems, like a solid enough lead for me, so I'm picking Velits. Discuss.

Damn you didnt make the poll open or whatever. I cant see who voted for who.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The Caisse d'Epargne guys - any who manage to stay around - could be very interesting here.

Luís León has 25 points in the KOM, and if he took maximum on the way around the stage he'd pull level with Moncoutié (I don't expect that since he's further up the GC and unlikely to be allowed to go away, and if he is Moncoutié will go with him).

Mosquera is supposed to be going to Vacansoleil but has also been rumoured with Movistar as well - and will not announce or decide until after the Vuelta. A bit of hand here could make the decision for him.

Tondó will definitely be racing in Movistar's colours next year, so may be able to call on a bit of help should he get into difficulty.

Rodríguez spent several years at Caisse and still has friends there, and he was able to call on their help pacing him after cracking in Andorra last weekend.

You also have the possibility of a tendency for Spanish national solidarity.