Who is the 'luckiest' grand tour winner?

[Vasilis]

Re: Re:

People underestimate peak Wiggins. Not only did he absolutely crush the time trials, his climbing behind a strong mountain train was elite too. Froome is probably the only recent GT rider who would've been able to beat him in 2012.

Unleashed Froome wouldn't have won the 2012 TDF. The deficit was too big and Wiggins 2012 was in the shape of his life.There is no reason to claim his win was a lucky one as some people try to suggest.

Wasn't about a minute of Froome's time deficit from the early stages when he flatted or was otherwise left behind by the team to cruise in?

Yes he suffered a flat and I think lost 1.25.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Every single GT winner ever has benefited from luck in some way shape or form. Froome dominated both his Tour wins, and he still got lucky in a couple of things - Movistar and Saxo falling asleep at the wheel in stage 9 in 2013 after isolating him, and getting away with the illegal feed, for example - and Wiggins too - he got a parcours designed almost specifically for him and Contador didn't get banned until early in 2012 anyway. As for 2011, you have the issue of stage 1 where Contador and Samu's group got involved in a crash outside 3k to go, then Schleck got involved in a crash inside 3k to go which blocked the road, meaning they didn't get penalized time but it increased the time lost by Contador and Samu. 2008 and 2011 Vueltas have time bonuses to thank. 2009 Vuelta Valverde was lucky to even be on the road. Even many of Armstrong's wins included elements of luck - 2003, for example, when no matter how great his save through the cornfield was, he profited from newly laid tarmac putting paid to the strongest Beloki we ever saw, Zülle being caught up in the Passage du Gois in 1999, and so on. No matter who won in 2006 they would be lucky. Contador in 2007 of course got Rasmussen being pulled out the race in his favour. Ryder Hesjedal got the conservatism of the other favourites in his favour, and the 2013 Giro (like many other races) saw a key stage get annulled (see also the 1991 Vuelta where Mauri was struggling in the Catalan mountains in the cold before the Beret stage was cancelled, by the time they got to the Asturian climbs he was back in his comfort zone). 2004 Giro saw the worst parcours ever plus the Falzès mugging and the weakness of the field gave us Cunego as a GT winner, while the almighty 2010 Giro had a major factor being Pellizotti's biopassport case meaning Nibali was subbed in at the eleventh hour so, not quite at peak form, he was set to domestique for Basso rather than being co-leaders. 2012 Vuelta again, Contador was lucky they did the backdating version of the ban so that he was able to be there, although simultaneously that meant losing other races which creates obvious lucky wins for Schleck and Scarponi as a result. Quintana had the Stelvio stage with the complete confusion and the other riders stopping for a coffee and clean clothes and then not taking the gap seriously until it was too late. Savoldelli had di Luca cramping up at the base of Sestriere which prevented the continued cohesive work of him and Simoni. Menchov was lucky to get his 2005 Vuelta after capitulating in the Pajáres mugging, Heras was lucky to get it back after testing positive.

Literally any GT you can name, you can point to somewhere where the winner benefited from luck.

 

[DBotero]

Re: Re:

People underestimate peak Wiggins. Not only did he absolutely crush the time trials, his climbing behind a strong mountain train was elite too. Froome is probably the only recent GT rider who would've been able to beat him in 2012.

Unleashed Froome wouldn't have won the 2012 TDF. The deficit was too big and Wiggins 2012 was in the shape of his life.There is no reason to claim his win was a lucky one as some people try to suggest.

Wasn't about a minute of Froome's time deficit from the early stages when he flatted or was otherwise left behind by the team to cruise in?

Yeah he lost +1min.The final gap between them was 3min+. I still don't see how would have Froome won it even without that time lost.It was a a route perfectly suited for Wiggins.

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

In light of what had happened in the first half of the 2011 season, and of the 2011 Vuelta, and of what would come from 2012 onwards, I wouldn't underestimate 2011 Wiggins.

On what stages do you think he could have gained time on Cadel?

Exactly my point. I don't believe Wiggins would have rode a better ITT than Martin and Evans almost won that ITT.

Wiggins would have collapsed on the galibier and with the constant attacking of Contador and Schleck. I really don't think he survives that without a train.

And surely he's not able to follow Evans and Contador on that gap stage? Especially with that wet descent.

No way Wiggins would have won that tour. 0%

 

[SevenTimeTdfChamp]

Re:

Perico Delgado Tour 1988
Bjarne Riis Tour 1996
Danilo Di Luca Giro 2007

Lol i what way was Riis lucky, besides not beeing caught, ? He spend years studying his rivals before winning and was a tactically gifted rider

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The 1988 Tour wasn't even Perico's luckiest GT win.

 

[SevenTimeTdfChamp]

Wiggins was a non factor in 2011 no way he would have won the tour. Dauphine dont mean anything. Its only 3 times in the last 11 years that the winner of Dauphine has gone on to win the tour. On the other hand i would say 2012 wiggins was lucky that Contador was banned and froome was on his team

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

Wasn't about a minute of Froome's time deficit from the early stages when he flatted or was otherwise left behind by the team to cruise in?

Yes, but regardless of what caused him to lose that specific minute, IMO he would've been unable to take back so much time.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Winning a GT is never a matter of luck itself. Luck plays a role if you believe the concept.

The concept is pretty straightforward. Something unexpected occurs you have no control over that benefits you: Luck

Denying that such things exist, and play a role in many outcomes, especially sport, is almost akin to denying gravity.

I just emphasize the fact that calling luck on lot of things can deny the wide range of factors that influence cycling. Froome felt on the cobbles in 2014. Was that bad luck or poor bike handling ? We can surely consider it quite lucky for Nibali but he mainly did not felt because he know to handle a bike on wet terrain. I don't know if you understand my point, difficult to make it clear in english ^^

Froome didn't fall on the cobbles in 2014. He fell the day before, broke his wrist and lost ability to handle his bike, which was seen on the asphalt before the cobbles on stage 5

 

[PremierAndrew]

Wiggins is seriously underestimated on this forum. For all his weaknesses on the climbs, Wiggins was able to follow Froome's cadence while Nibali wasn't.

And while I don't think Wiggins would have won the 2011 Tour, I struggle to believe he wouldn't have podiumed

 

[hrotha]

Re: Re:

In light of what had happened in the first half of the 2011 season, and of the 2011 Vuelta, and of what would come from 2012 onwards, I wouldn't underestimate 2011 Wiggins.

On what stages do you think he could have gained time on Cadel?

Possible candidates are the ITT (yes, I think he might well have beaten Martin by a decent margin) and, less likely, Galibier and Alpe d'Huez (with an adequately tired Evans). Not that I think it was likely (especially since I don't think 2011 Wiggins would have believed he could do it and thus gone on the offensive), just saying that hey, Wiggins WAS the second best climber the next year and he was super strong in 2011 too. A podium would have been a relatively safe bet.

 

[Nick C.]

Re: Re:

Wasn't about a minute of Froome's time deficit from the early stages when he flatted or was otherwise left behind by the team to cruise in?

Yes, but regardless of what caused him to lose that specific minute, IMO he would've been unable to take back so much time.

It would have been a big ask no doubt. On the stage he did "attack" what do you think he could have taken? 30 sec? a minute?

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

Wasn't about a minute of Froome's time deficit from the early stages when he flatted or was otherwise left behind by the team to cruise in?

Yes, but regardless of what caused him to lose that specific minute, IMO he would've been unable to take back so much time.

It would have been a big ask no doubt. On the stage he did "attack" what do you think he could have taken? 30 sec? a minute?

I think about 30" per high-mountain stage. With the exception of full-on alien days like Ax-3-Domaines and Mont Ventoux in 2013, Froome is good at opening gaps, but not necessarily that good at expanding them once established.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

People underestimate peak Wiggins. Not only did he absolutely crush the time trials, his climbing behind a strong mountain train was elite too. Froome is probably the only recent GT rider who would've been able to beat him in 2012.

Your usual trolling. I get it. If Froome wasn't called back it would have been game set and match. I've no doubt you agree about this but you can't help yourself trying to be smart again and have a dig. Give it a rest. You

Unwarranted claim.

It's not a claim. It's a fact. You surf on he edge yourself. How's it feel to be really clever. Or so you may think.

What a bizarre response to my post. I'm not saying Wiggins would have won, had Froome not been called back. I'm saying it's not certain that he wouldn't have, and that Wiggins is generally underestimated around here. He had a super high time trialling level and was the next best climber after Froome. It's not clear Froome would have been able to get enough time against a Wiggins sitting behind 400w train conductor Rogers.

Your assertion that it's a fact that Froome would have won is wrong. It's a counterfactual conditional claim with indeterminate truth value. Because we can't go back in time to find out what happens there's always an element of uncertainty about such claims.

Fwiw, I'm on the fence about what would have happened. In the past I've backed Froome and Wiggins mental fragility is an important part of that, but by no means do I think that it's certain he would have won

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

What a bizarre response to my post. I'm not saying Wiggins would have won, had Froome not been called back. I'm saying it's not certain that he wouldn't have, and that Wiggins is generally underestimated around here. He had a super high time trialling level and was the next best climber after Froome. It's not clear Froome would have been able to get enough time against a Wiggins sitting behind 400w train conductor Rogers.

Your assertion that it's a fact that Froome would have won is wrong. It's a counterfactual conditional claim with indeterminate truth value. Because we can't go back in time to find out what happens there's always an element of uncertainty about such claims.

Fwiw, I'm on the fence about what would have happened. In the past I've backed Froome and Wiggins mental fragility is an important part of that, but by no means do I think that it's certain he would have won

Ain't that the truth.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Wiggins is seriously underestimated on this forum. For all his weaknesses on the climbs, Wiggins was able to follow Froome's cadence while Nibali wasn't.

And while I don't think Wiggins would have won the 2011 Tour, I struggle to believe he wouldn't have podiumed

On that route in 2012, Wigans couldn't lose with the form he had.

In 2011, I can't see any way Wigans would have won with that frenetic final week where Contador, Samu, Schlecks and Europcar were all going berserk to regain time and control. There was too much real racing going on, which would have been disastrous for Wigans on wet roads. I do think he was top 5 at the absolute worst though.

Also his 2011 team was weaker than 2012 - Rogers not as good, no Porte, Froome still hanging on to motorbikes etc. At least we got to see EBH at his sprinting and stage hunting best.

 

[jens_attacks]

Ivan gotti 1999, contador 2007.

 

[Carols]

Re:

Ivan gotti 1999, .

Oh my how could I have forgotten Gotti. Easily actually, I just banished him from my mind and my homemade 1999 Giro dvd ends on stage 20!

 

[bikinggirl]

Frome!