Who is the 'luckiest' grand tour winner?

[Singer01]

Now the title is a little bit provocative, but I feel the grief that Nibs has been getting (while I agree he got a little bit fortunate) is a bit unfair. Looking back over the last few years almost every Grand Tour winner has needed a bit of luck. I don’t count losing time on a stage through positioning as unlucky, but if an opponent crashes out I feel it is a bit lucky for the eventual winner
Playing devil’s advocate from memory the below have all benefited from a bit of luck -
2015
Contador got a bit lucky that Landa was shackled (though I think he would have won anyway).
Aru got lucky with drop outs
2014
Nibs got lucky with drop outs
Quintana got lucky with lots of people not knowing what the f was going on
2013
Nibs got lucky that Wiggins shat himself
2012
Wiggins got lucky that Froome was on a leash (though not as tight a one as he should have been on).
2011
Cadel got lucky that Wiggins crashed out
Cobo got lucky that Sky backed the wrong horse for too long
2010
Nibali got lucky with Nieve’s crash
Contador got lucky with chaingate

I’m sure I’ve missed some out, as I don’t have the most encyclopaedic memory for races. I think it’s absurd that people seem to only have 2 positions, either

- there is no such thing as luck and whoever wins deserves it.
Or
- someone’s success is tainted because of X,Y or Z.

Surely people can see that cycling, like most things in life, is a bit more nuanced than that and is not so black or white.
So, if we agree that luck can play a big part, but taking nothing away from the winner who ultimately was the person who finished the race in first place, who is the luckiest grand tour winner?

 

[Krokro]

Winning a GT is never a matter of luck itself. Luck plays a role if you believe the concept. What really matters ? Shape, skills, bike handling, staff, teammates, clinic stuffs. I will take an example here, not patriotic but just to make my point : Pinot and Péraud accidentally on the podium ? Well they managed to finish the race despite every single problem that happened to Froome or Conti ie. Are they better on their bike ? God no. Were they better particularly in TdF 2014 ? Id say yes, they are those on the podium. I just find it sad to make excuses : Bike racing is exciting and beautiful because of all those factors as well. And Im saying this still sour from Chavito/Kruijswijk loss on Giro.

 

[kwikki]

Oscar Perreiro

 

[RedheadDane]

1904:
Henri Cornet was lucky that a whole bunch of riders - including the original top-four - decided to take the train.










(And yes... I know that isn't exactly "recent")

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Oscar Perreiro

Yep. I'll add Contador in 2007, Schleck in 2010, Scarponi in 2011

 

[Carols]

Oscar Perreiro and Andy Schleck

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

Winning a GT is never a matter of luck itself. Luck plays a role if you believe the concept.

The concept is pretty straightforward. Something unexpected occurs you have no control over that benefits you: Luck

Denying that such things exist, and play a role in many outcomes, especially sport, is almost akin to denying gravity.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Winning a GT is never a matter of luck itself. Luck plays a role if you believe the concept.

The concept is pretty straightforward. Something unexpected occurs you have no control over that benefits you: Luck

Denying that such things exist, and play a role in many outcomes, especially sport, is almost akin to denying gravity.

Well, theres people somewhere that deny gravity

 

[Miburo]

Ah here we go, someone who brings up the chaingate again. Didn't andy get lucky that his bro crashed and put contador a minute behind? Didn't andy also get lucky when Contador lost an additional 25 sec when his bike *** up on the same stage?

 

[SeriousSam]

I agree, taking everything into account, it was Andy who was lucky to win the 2010 Tour.

 

[Singer01]

Ah here we go, someone who brings up the chaingate again. Didn't andy get lucky that his bro crashed and put contador a minute behind? Didn't andy also get lucky when Contador lost an additional 25 sec when his bike **** up on the same stage?

i know, that was kind of the point of the whole post.

also, lance was pretty lucky that fat pants Ulrich couldn't stay away from chocolate cake.

 

[hrotha]

Is it still luck if it's something you can't control, but which your rival totes can, and doesn't?

 

[Krokro]

Re: Re:

Winning a GT is never a matter of luck itself. Luck plays a role if you believe the concept.

The concept is pretty straightforward. Something unexpected occurs you have no control over that benefits you: Luck

Denying that such things exist, and play a role in many outcomes, especially sport, is almost akin to denying gravity.

I just emphasize the fact that calling luck on lot of things can deny the wide range of factors that influence cycling. Froome felt on the cobbles in 2014. Was that bad luck or poor bike handling ? We can surely consider it quite lucky for Nibali but he mainly did not felt because he know to handle a bike on wet terrain. I don't know if you understand my point, difficult to make it clear in english ^^

 

[Breh]

Re:

Is it still luck if it's something you can't control, but which your rival totes can, and doesn't?

Some might argue that compulsive eating is a disease and cannot be controlled.

 

[happytramp]

Lemond was lucky to get away with using illegal tri bars in the TT against Fignon.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

2015
Contador got a bit lucky that Landa was shackled (though I think he would have won anyway). - not lucky. Victory was never in doubt
Aru got lucky with drop outs - Not lucky. Froome had shown some weakness before and Aru really was the strongest
ADD TO THAT: Quintana losing time on the Zeeland stage
2014
Nibs got lucky with drop outs - Yes. Lucky, but he did have almost 3 minutes and was climbing really well.
Quintana got lucky with lots of people not knowing what the f was going on - Super lucky on the stage, but clearly could have won the race regardless as shown on the Monte Grappa MTT
2013
Nibs got lucky that Wiggins shat himself - Not lucky. Wiggins had no business to do in the Giro anything
2012
Wiggins got lucky that Froome was on a leash (though not as tight a one as he should have been on).
2011 - Can be debated. Probably a little bit lucky.
Cadel got lucky that Wiggins crashed out - NOT A SINGLE BIT. Cadel was climbing extremely well and his time trialing was on par with Wiggins'. Don't think Wiggins would have had any chance that year, even despite his Dauphine Win.
Cobo got lucky that Sky backed the wrong horse for too long. - probably yes. Cobo was the best climber though and I don't remember how much time he lost in the ITT
2010
Nibali got lucky with Anton’s crash - Very lucky that Anton was not around, I agree.
Contador got lucky with chaingate - true. He didn't look like he could seriously drop Andy at any point.

 

[Netserk]

Contador was 'lucky' that Rabobank withdrew Rasmussen when he was otherwise certain to win the Tour. Scarponi, Andy etc. are not GT winners, so they aren't lucky winners either.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

Contador was 'lucky' that Rabobank withdrew Rasmussen when he was otherwise certain to win the Tour. Scarponi, Andy etc. are not GT winners, so they aren't lucky winners either.

In Contador's defence he lost like 30-40 sec on tignes cause of a flat (he for sure would have followed mayo), maybe he wasn't forced then to blow himself up on...(forgot the MTF)

And he still might have had a fighting chance in the ITT. You never know with Rasmussen.

 

[ferryman]

Wiggins. If you want to bring subservience into the mix. Others could quite rightly argue that's teamwork....If I was Froome, that should have been 3 in the bag by now...

 

[Singer01]

Re:

Wiggins. If you want to bring subservience into the mix. Others could quite rightly argue that's teamwork....If I was Froome, that should have been 3 in the bag by now...

however, if wiggins had won in 2011 (which i think he would have), would froome have gotten his shot in 2013 if wiggins was going for a hatrick?

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

Wiggins. If you want to bring subservience into the mix. Others could quite rightly argue that's teamwork....If I was Froome, that should have been 3 in the bag by now...

however, if wiggins had won in 2011 (which i think he would have), would froome have gotten his shot in 2013 if wiggins was going for a hatrick?

Lol what makes you think Wiggins would have won it in 2011? xD

 

[perico]

Sartre in 2008 (they were all lucky Contador wasn't there).

 

[Breh]

Would've been the first GT awarded post mortem.

 

[Singer01]

Re: Re:

Wiggins. If you want to bring subservience into the mix. Others could quite rightly argue that's teamwork....If I was Froome, that should have been 3 in the bag by now...

however, if wiggins had won in 2011 (which i think he would have), would froome have gotten his shot in 2013 if wiggins was going for a hatrick?

Lol what makes you think Wiggins would have won it in 2011? xD

The fact that Cadel won, and Wiggins had just handed his ar$e to him in the Dauphine 2 weeks earlier?

Realistically I put them at 51/49 in Wiggins favour if he hadn't crashed out, mainly to the late time trial meaning he could just follow Cadel for 3 weeks, knowing he was stronger against the clock. With the strength of Sky i don't think that would have been to big a problem.

 

[SeriousSam]

People underestimate peak Wiggins. Not only did he absolutely crush the time trials, his climbing behind a strong mountain train was elite too. Froome is probably the only recent GT rider who would've been able to beat him in 2012.