Who will be the next new tour de France winner ?

[Krzysztof_O]

Hard one, it will take about four years until there is any chance of a new winner if Pogacar doesnt quit or has major injuries i guess.

It's an interesting remark. Over the last 5 years the Tour win has been absolutey unreachable for mortals (i.e. non-Pogacac, non-Vingegaard guys) and it seems the streak will continue as we need two guys to be down like in 2014 (even if something happens to Pogacar Vingegaard should still win the race comfortably).

Seixas is most likely simply because his prime won't overlap with those of Pogacar and Vingegaard but there's no guarantee he will ever reach the level required.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Most probably either Seixas or someone who has not yet turned pro. The rest of the list only has a chance if their climbing suddenly goes alien level, or if we have at least one Tour in between the Pogacar/Vingegaard era and the next era (which either requires Seixas to not help define the next era, or both Pogacar and Vingegaard to decline in the not too distant future).