Who will be the next new tour de France winner ?

[Krzysztof_O]

Hard one, it will take about four years until there is any chance of a new winner if Pogacar doesnt quit or has major injuries i guess.

It's an interesting remark. Over the last 5 years the Tour win has been absolutey unreachable for mortals (i.e. non-Pogacac, non-Vingegaard guys) and it seems the streak will continue as we need two guys to be down like in 2014 (even if something happens to Pogacar Vingegaard should still win the race comfortably).

Seixas is most likely simply because his prime won't overlap with those of Pogacar and Vingegaard but there's no guarantee he will ever reach the level required.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Most probably either Seixas or someone who has not yet turned pro. The rest of the list only has a chance if their climbing suddenly goes alien level, or if we have at least one Tour in between the Pogacar/Vingegaard era and the next era (which either requires Seixas to not help define the next era, or both Pogacar and Vingegaard to decline in the not too distant future).

 

[AlfaLum]

It's an interesting remark. Over the last 5 years the Tour win has been absolutey unreachable for mortals (i.e. non-Pogacac, non-Vingegaard guys) and it seems the streak will continue as we need two guys to be down like in 2014 (even if something happens to Pogacar Vingegaard should still win the race comfortably).

Seixas is most likely simply because his prime won't overlap with those of Pogacar and Vingegaard but there's no guarantee he will ever reach the level required.

Well to be honest I think Vingegaards level might not be unreachable for Del Toro if his progression continues a bit further than where he is at now. Pogacar has also improved quite a bit after his first Tour win, and I think it is quite likely that Del Toro will at least build out his durability over the next seasons if nothing else. I would say there is a decent chance Del Toro reaches Vingegaards level next season or the season after.

For Seixas it is even more reasonable to think that he can match Vingegaard current level at some point in his career. Perhaps it will take him one or two seasons longer than Del Toro because normally his prime should be a bit further away. But then again Seixas already seems quite complete.

It can also be argued that Vingegaard might detoriorate a bit from 2028 onwards as the prime years for GC-riders seem to be a bit younger than they used to be. So I think it is likely that from 2028 onwards Vingegaard is beatable for some of the better up and coming contenders.

Pogacar is a different beast though. He is much better than Vingegaard and also younger. If he doesn't get a big injury or misses out on a Tour I think he will win the next 3-4 tours for sure. Guys like Del Toro and Seixas should probably hope he gets tired of cycling after that.

 

[elguapo]

It is more likely that del Toro would succeed Pogi. All he has to do is to improve in his time-trialing. I want him to ride as UAE main man against Vingo and beat him to prove a point. I consider Ayuso to be the next Evenepoel in terms of consistency over a three-week race. As to Seixas his 19 year old body will surely change within two or three years. Either he gains weight and lost power on high roads but could improve in his time-trialing. He could be the next Alaphilippe or Pinot. His pro start now is hot like those of Gregoire or Leny Martinez before him. Until now Pogi is still the man to beat. I suspect that he could win 7 TDF titles before retiring.

 

[Berniece]

It is more likely that del Toro would succeed Pogi. All he has to do is to improve in his time-trialing.

And maybe improve at hard multi-mountain stages? Just being able to do long hard races by default, really.

 

[AlfaLum]

It is more likely that del Toro would succeed Pogi. All he has to do is to improve in his time-trialing. I want him to ride as UAE main man against Vingo and beat him to prove a point. I consider Ayuso to be the next Evenepoel in terms of consistency over a three-week race. As to Seixas his 19 year old body will surely change within two or three years. Either he gains weight and lost power on high roads but could improve in his time-trialing. He could be the next Alaphilippe or Pinot. His pro start now is hot like those of Gregoire or Leny Martinez before him. Until now Pogi is still the man to beat. I suspect that he could win 7 TDF titles before retiring.

The only reason one might have for comparing Seixas to Gregoire and Martinez is that they are born in the same country.

 

[Vinther1991]

When looking at this you have to consider who from the past 2 years have been the strongest GC rider besides the ones who already won the Tour (Vingegaard, Pogacar and I guess Bernal). That would be Roglic, Evenepoel, Lipowitz, Almeida (not counting retired Yates). You can add in a couple of super talents, who have yet to show their fullest potential, Del Toro, Seixas. Roglic will fade away before the current champs. Del Toro has yet to convince me he will be a strong enough climber to win the Tour, though he is amazing at everything else. For Seixas it is too early to tell. We know the ceiling of Evenepoel and Almeida by now, the latter is lacks a bit, and the former is just way too inconsistent. They might also fade at the same time as Vingegaard and Pogacar.
So I go with Lipowitz, he doesn't gather as much hype, because he doesn't dominate small races, but only seem to excel at the truly big GC races. But he is the one that I think is more likely to improve his level further from last year.
So 1. Lipowitz, 2. Seixas, 3. Del Toro, 4. Evenepoel.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Just interested why you think he will continue to improve over others, why not Onley who is two years younger?

 

[Cookster15]

As to Seixas his 19 year old body will surely change within two or three years. Either he gains weight and lost power on high roads but could improve in his time-trialing.

Seixas did a good TT at Volta ao Algarve. It was only a 22 minute effort but he ws just 13 seconds down on one of the best TTers in the sport.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Primož Roglič.

 

[AmRacer]

Primož Roglič.

When he is 40?

 

[canina82]

I'm curious to know when those who voted for Lipowitz and Remco expect one of them to win the Tour.
2026, 2027, 2028 or 2029?

 

[Rockestar_33]

Lipowitz for me.

 

[CyclistAbi]

When he is 40?

I assume there will be a new poll then.

 

[KZD]

Voted Seixas.

Assuming that Pogačar wins his 5th Tour this season, I still expect that he will want to return in 2027 to get a record 6th win. That should give Seixas enough time to develop and possibly win the Tour in 2028 or 2029. If Pogačar has some bad luck until then, Vingegaard will likely win his third Tour.

Del Toro, Lipowitz, Ayuso and Almeida are the sort of riders that I expect to win at least one GT but I do expect Seixas to become better than them and by the time Pogačar stops riding the Tour or declines noticeably (likely 2028-2029), there is a good chance Seixas takes over and starts winning the Tour.

 

[Squire]

Just interested why you think he will continue to improve over others, why not Onley who is two years younger?

Presumably because he seems like more of an unfinished article. And he is currently at a higher level as well.

I have no idea who the next new winner will be, but Lipowitz isn't a bad shout for someone taking advantage of a lucky break where Pog isn't present or is hampered in some way. Almeida as well. It is quite rare to have a large number of Tours in a row with the main favourite not having any issues. Only Indurain and Armstrong really managed that. And Pogacar races hard all year and does get the occasional crash, so it's not unthinkable that he misses a Tour soon.

Who will be the successor to the aliens in case of no enforced absences and such like is really hard to say. I think Pog will decline/retire/not bother as much sooner than many people seem to think. And Vingegaard might already be at a stage where he starts dropping in level. But if they both stay in the game for a few more years, Seixas is the most enticing candidate at the moment I guess. Or someone like Nordhagen or Onley could suddenly take a big step, or Del Toro might already have done so.

I'm not quite gonna call Ayuso as a likely winner of the 2026 Tour, but I am excited to see him have a crack under optimal conditions as well. Might be better than many people think.

 

[Tonton]

Wow! Surprised by the results of the poll so far. I want Paul to win it too. But realistically. all it takes for Remco is less high mountains and more ITT. Can Belgium throw as much money at ASO as the UK did?

 

[canina82]

Wow! Surprised by the results of the poll so far. I want Paul to win it too. But realistically. all it takes for Remco is less high mountains and more ITT. Can Belgium throw as much money at ASO as the UK did?

So with more TTs and less mountains, he will beat Pogacar and Vingegaard in your opinion?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Wow! Surprised by the results of the poll so far. I want Paul to win it too. But realistically. all it takes for Remco is less high mountains and more ITT. Can Belgium throw as much money at ASO as the UK did?

GTs departed from TT heavy routes a long time ago. To win the Tour you have to be the best climber and Remco isn't even close. The Tour seems locked in the next 2-3 editions. Bad luck has to happen to Pogacar but even then Vingegaard should be too strong (at least in the next two editions IMO, afterwards decline is likely).
Seixas is the most likely to peak when Pogacar (and Vingegaard) are declined and his progress at a very young age is very impressive and that's why he has so many votes. Obviously Del Toro is also quite young but he'll likely need to change the team at some point to have a shot at the Tour (and his prime will partially overlap with Pog's).

 

[Berniece]

So with more TTs and less mountains, he will beat Pogacar and Vingegaard in your opinion?

Instead of 8 mountain stages and 1 ITT, we do 1 mountain stage and 8 ITT

 

[AmRacer]

Instead of 8 mountain stages and 1 ITT, we do 1 mountain stage and 8 ITT

Tour de France ITT

 

[Wyndbrook]

Wow! Surprised by the results of the poll so far. I want Paul to win it too. But realistically. all it takes for Remco is less high mountains and more ITT. Can Belgium throw as much money at ASO as the UK did?

The money UK threw at ASO came years after Wiggins won the tour, not before.

 

[Brullnux]

Wow! Surprised by the results of the poll so far. I want Paul to win it too. But realistically. all it takes for Remco is less high mountains and more ITT. Can Belgium throw as much money at ASO as the UK did?

Remco loses like three minutes in every mountain stage Pogacar tries in