Who will crack this weekend?

[Jan the Man]

Contador won't crack. Rujano will lose some time and the rest will be variable crackers. Sastre will disappear quickly but it's hard to know how Menchov will cope. I would like to see him come good but I have my doubts. Will be interested in how Gadret and Rodriguez go.

Contador is huge favourite and I would be very surprised if he were to have a bad day.

I think Scarponi may crack tomorrow.

I think Nibali won't crack but will be dropped tomorrow and Sunday just because the climbs don't suit him. He will do a good GC by limiting his losses on each stage.

I think Serpa will crack but may well win a stage (17 - 19)

I think Purito will struggle today but may well thrive tomorrow.

I think Sastre is impossible to judge he is probably way short but could just as easily win one of stages 14, 15, 20.

I think Menchov will be similar to Nibali, will not have a big jour sans but i would be surprised if he could live with Contador on the steep pitches of the Zoncolan and Marmolada/Gardeccia.

I think that one or both Sella and Rujano will win one of the tough stages. It will be dependent on whether they try for the GC by staying with the contenders or try and get in a breakaway. I think of the two Rujano is the only one who can win from the group of main contenders as Sella is a little short of the main climbers.

I think Pozzovivo is far enough back to get in a breakaway and challenge for one of the tough stages.

I think that Kreuziger will surprise a few people by not cracking (merely riding tempo like Nibali). He is an outside bet for the podium but I can see him finishing in the top 5 GC which would be an improvement on previous GT finishes.

For me this leaves Anton, he is a question mark. I actually believe that he has done well to stay within 2:21 of Contador at this stage, especially if we are to believe his line that he is not targetting the GC. The climbs of Stages 14 and 15 suit Anton and dependent on how he survives stage 13 and if he intends to do a good GC he could be Contador's closes adversary, not only on those Stages (14 and 15) but for the whole Giro.

I think if I had to bet Anton could take more than a minute from Nibs and Kreuziger et al on the very steep climbs.

 

[Publicus]

I reckon everyone will lost big time to Contador, with the exception of Rujano, who's already to far back to take the fight to him, sadly enough.

Be interesting to see what those two can do on Crostis/Zonc, i reckon Rujano might be able to follow the acceleration's easier on the steeper stuff, oddly enough.

I don't think we will see lots of accelerations (to drop Rujano or vice versa) if it is just AC and Rujano. Just tempo riding at that point to get maximum time since it would be beneficial to both.

 

[auscyclefan94]

There is a possiblity Contador might have a bad day.

 

[roundabout]

There is a possibility that I'll win the lottery.

 

[Archibald]

I think they all will at some stage, it will just be varying degrees of how badly.
Even Contador will blow at some point, but that may be after the others have been dropped. It will remain to be seen if anyone who's staying within their limits can regain any of how much he's gapped them

 

[CatsNK]

There is a possibility that I'll win the lottery.

+1. AC is not going to crack. I'll eat my TV if that happens.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Contador on a bad day > everyone else on a good day.

 

[Moncoutie]

Scarponi will pop on one day I think.
Nibali will lose time to Contador but don't think he will crack.
Guys like Gadret & Le Mevel willdrop out of the top 10.
Anton & Menchov will move up.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

If Scarponi is in shape I rate him higher than Nibali and Kreuziger but as a few others I suspect that he is past his peek and will get into trouble.

Nibali and Kreuziger I actually rate pretty equal with a slight edge to Nibali. Kreuziger has been looking great this year and is probably stronger than ever. I suspect that they will try to limit their losses and come in in roughly the same time on all stages, but they will lose some time.

Menchov is impossible to rate but I suspect that he will be starting to get into shape and is potentially the strongest besides Contador.

Antón I have high hopes for and based on pure climbing I think he's potentially the one closest to Contador. However, we don't really have any indication on his form but hopefully he has been downplaying his role in this Giro.

J-Rod will struggle today I think and even though he likes the steeper stuff, I suspect he will have problems with the lenght of the total climbs tomorrow.

Rujano won't crack and of course neither will Contador.

 

[Martina]

I think they all will at some stage, it will just be varying degrees of how badly.
Even Contador will blow at some point.

+1
I think it is impossible not to crack to some degree if racing (and not just trying to survive) those mountains three days in a row.